The 2020 NFL season is here! With comes the weekly return of The New Reality, a dynasty feature outlining macro and micro team strategies, player evaluation, and roster optimization.
First, let's set the table with the concept of dynasty roster churn, the uniqueness of 2020, plus all the moving pieces in advance of Week 1:
Dynasty Roster Churn
One of my offseason research projects in 2020 centered around roster churn. Would you believe that barely half of the average dynasty roster will be left even 12 months in the future for a given team? That was the across the board result from my study with minimal oscillation between skill positions in the data. Go out another 12 months and only 30-35% of a dynasty roster will remain the same two years into the future.
What accounts for this churn? The combination of the waiver wire and dynasty trading. The waiver wire lops off the back-end fat at any given time of year. Trading can be anything from lower-level flip players to massive deals involving core-level assets. Roster spots need to be created for the in-flux of annual rookie selections as well.
What's the takeaway strategy? Knowing half of your roster will be different in a given 12 months, give or take a player or two, does two things. First, have an exit plan or spectrum of outcomes for most or all of the back-half of your roster. Second, looking for more sell high and buy low moments for the trading of higher players on your roster over even 1-2 year windows. A bonus takeaway is being a little more agnostic towards age as few of your players will even be on your roster in say three years (maybe 20-25%).
The running back position is the perfect centerpiece for embracing the inevitable back-end-of-the-roster churn. They offer the quick-flip potential to clear the spot if their opportunity expands. Running backs also stand to benefit the most from an injury in front of them on the depth chart with notable additions of backup quarterbacks in premium formats and backup tight ends in 2TE formats. This cascades into the next section...
Unique 2020
The range of rules and rule adjustments for COVID-19 in 2020 are all over the map in dynasty leagues. Some leagues are keeping their roster expansion from the offseason. Others are widely expanding their IR rules and size. Others still are adapting their schedules and/or adding more roster spots to account for potential 2020 season roster hazards.
The central advice is to maximize roster spots. This may sound simple, but this mandates staying on top of the daily news plus which teams-players of yours are affected by a new designation. Stay on top of IR designations through your hosting platform. Placing these players on IR once they are eligible (via COVID-19, suspension, opt-out, etc. depending on your league setup) can be the difference between dropping a player during weekly waivers when you would otherwise have an open spot. this cascades into the final section...
Week 1 Preparation
Knowing roughly half of your roster is destined to be on the waiver wire, or another team's roster by this time in 2021, maximize each roster spot's probabilities for the here and now. This is not to say a dynasty roster cannot have an exception or two, the 'my guys' who you truly believe in their developmental upside and will eschew churning the spot for a reasonable amount of time (could be 12-24 months) to see if your evaluation is correct. However, these should be rare, not the norm. Locking into players, especially in the final 5-8 roster spots (assuming a roster size in the mid-20s) is a recipe for missing out on waiver wire opportunities.
The checklist to optimize your roster:
If kicker and/or defense is required, have the requisite one on your roster. Week 1 is here, so they are an obligation, but unless you have a truly elite option, approach them as if you will cut them on their bye week and not burn a spot as if you cannot get them back (if you want) after their bye. The lone '1% of leagues' exception would be deep formats where one of these positions could be hoarded to the point where having multiple makes sense considering the lack of options on the waiver wire elsewhere.
Embrace the variance of running back. With 53-man rosters and practice squads finalized for NFL teams, this is the week to finalize your own dynasty bench. Know that a practice squad assignment reduces a player's odds tremendously compared to already being on the active roster in the NFL. Last year only four skill position players, out of hundreds, who were cut on this weekend of NFL roster finalization are worthy of a dynasty roster spot 12 months later even using a liberal threshold: LeSean McCoy, Devine Ozigbo, Allen Lazard, and Boston Scott. And how many of them were worthy of being on a dynasty roster straight through those 12 months? Lazard was far from a consistent producer last season. Ozigbo only became a notable name after Leonard Fournette was released. Scott came on late in the season and probably maintained his dynasty roster status for most or all of the offseason. McCoy underwhelmed last season and then bounced to Tampa Bay, who drafted a Day 2 running back plus signed Leonard Fournette in addition to having Ronald Jones II. McCoy is far from a dynasty roster lock in most depths heading into Week 1.
The takeaway is these are the exceptions and McCoy had a strong career profile as 25% of the names on the list and 1-2 of the others is probably not on the same dynasty team in your league as they were to close 2019.
Optimizing the final roster spots is looking at them from a 'what could happen in the next few weeks' vantage point. For example, Damien Harris was just put on the three-week IR. This opens up the possibility for Rex Burkhead to be a Sony Michel injury away from relevance if not prominence. This is a 'this week' development.
Another example is Ryquell Armstead, the presumed starter in Jacksonville post-Leonard Fournette, being mentioned as out for 'a while' by his coach and James Robinson not only making the roster but being atop the depth chart for the Week 1 team listing. At a minimum, Robinson should be contemplated as a pickup this week with the 'what if' storyline of the depth chart being correct and Robinson being the 1A option in Week 1. He would be a hot pickup post-Week 1, yet dynasty GMs could get him for a fraction of the cost preemptively this week.
One final example is Darrel Williams in Kansas City. Damien Williams opted out of 2020 and DeAndre Washington was released and added back to the practice squad. At a minimum, Darrel Williams has a huge advantage over DeAndre Washington in probability of an impactful stretch this season. Darwin Thompson also made the roster but lacks size. If there is any limitation to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's performance or usage as a rookie (or missed time), Williams has massive impact potential.
