Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Looking back at last week
Last Week: +3 units
Full Season: +37 units
We closed out the regular season with another winning week that included a pair of comfortable wins.
Hits
-We had over 12.5 fantasy points for Chris Godwin. He had 30.3. On the other side, we took the over of 10.5 fantasy points for Russell Gage. He had 25.2.
-We figured the Washington-Philadelphia game might be ugly. We had under 223.5 passing yards for Jalen Hurts. He had 72. We had under 242.5 passing yards for Alex Smith. He had 162.
Misses
-Noah Fant missed his receiving yardage over by 2.5 yards. On the other side, Nelson Agholor came up 7.5 yards short.
-David Montgomery and Davante Adams came up short of their rushing and receiving yardage props, respectively.
-Taking the Baltimore and Cincinnati passing overs was a bit of a disaster. The game got out of control more quickly than expected and both quarterbacks came in well under their passing props.
Number 5: Bucs Stack
Tom Brady (-6.5) more fantasy points than Terry McLaurin
Mike Evans (-0.5) more fantasy points than Alex Smith
- This is a correlation play on the Tampa Bay passing offense over the Washington passing offense. It is built differently than what we typically see (QB versus QB and WR versus WR), but that actually makes it slightly more attractive because the WR-WR matchups tend to have more variability.
- Tom Brady threw for multiple touchdowns in each of his final seven games. In five of those seven, he also passed for 340+ yards.
- He averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game over those seven and the consensus of our Footballguys projectors has Brady scoring 22.5 fantasy points this weekend.
- If we project Brady for 22.5, there is value on his side of the prop as long as we do not project Terry McLaurin for 16+ fantasy points. We project him for 15.1, so we are getting a bit of value.
- We also have recent history on our side. McLaurin has not scored 16+ fantasy points since Week 12 (when he had 16.2).
- Due in part to nagging injuries and in part due to poor quarterback play, McLaurin really struggled in the second half of the season. Over the final eight games he scored just one touchdown and had zero 100-yard receiving games. McLaurin was the fantasy WR38 in the second-half of the season.
- We do want to keep an eye on Mike Evans’ injury status before locking in this prop. He is dealing with a knee injury and we will want to see him get in at least a limited practice on Thursday or Friday before submitting here.
#GoBucs believe WR Mike Evans will play Sat. but this morning’s practice will be huge to see if his hyperextended knee has responded well enough to treatment.
— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) January 7, 2021
- We are getting some “might be replaced mid-game” value on Alex Smith. While his comeback has been a great story, Smith’s play has been spotty and he is dealing with an injury of his own. If he struggles early in the game, there is a good chance he could be replaced by Taylor Heinecke.
We are reacting to Ron Rivera telling reporters he is considering rotating Alex Smith and Taylor Heineke. Wow.
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) January 5, 2021
Listen live: https://t.co/WqJ1XNO6zY. pic.twitter.com/2khFjTRTw7
Number 4: Focus on the WR1s
Allen Robinson over 14.5 fantasy points
Emmanuel Sanders under 13.5 fantasy points
- We are going to bank on Michael Thomas being healthy enough to slot right back in as Drew Brees’ top target. Alvin Kamara also has a decent chance to play. If Brees has his top targets, there likely will not be enough volume against an excellent Bears defense for Sanders to have a big fantasy game.
From @NFLTotalAccess: The #Saints are expected to get WR Michael Thomas back this week, while Washington should have QB Alex Smith (calf), too. pic.twitter.com/TuIqbptGLj
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 7, 2021
- The Bears are only giving up 20.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. If you project Thomas to lead the way for the Saints wide receivers, we are getting a lot of value on the under on any team’s WR2 against this Bears defense. This is especially true of a team like the Saints where so much of the passing offense runs through the running backs, tight ends, and H-backs.
- Sanders topped 13.5 fantasy points just twice since Week 5.
- Aside from the Week 14 game where he had 13.8 points, the only other game he had 13.5+ was a mostly meaningless Week 17 game where the Saints were clearly trying to make sure he caught eight passes to secure a $500,000 contract bonus. This prop is higher than it should be due in part to this recent artificially inflated recent number.
- Footballguys consensus projectionshas Sanders at 11.0 fantasy points, so there is a good bit of value on the under.
- On the other side, our consensus projection for Allen Robinson is 17.4 points, so there is a great deal of value on the over.
- The Saints are giving up the least total yards in the NFL to opposing running backs, so it is likely to be tough sledding for David Montgomery. This offense will be forced to pass to keep up with a very good Saints offense.
- Allen Robinson finished 4th among all wide receivers with 102 receptions in 2020 while seeing 9.5 targets per game. It would be a surprise if he didn’t see 10+ targets in this playoff matchup.
Bears can’t afford to marginalize WR Allen Robinson in game plan vs. Saints https://t.co/k4ZbmAOpO8
— Sun-Times Sports (@suntimes_sports) January 7, 2021
- Last year in the playoffs, Robinson exploded for 10-143-1 in the Bears close loss to the Eagles.
Number 3: Overs in Pittsburgh
Baker Mayfield over 15.5 fantasy points
Diontae Johnson over 15.5 fantasy points
- We are going with a correlation play on the expectation this game has a little more offense than expected. The 47.5-point game total is actually pretty solid and ranks third-highest on the week, so this might not be the ugly, low-scoring affair many of the props seem to indicate.
- Baker Mayfield somewhat quietly finished the season off with some of the best play of his career. Over the final six weeks of the seasons, he scored the 7th-most fantasy points amongst all quarterbacks (despite playing one of those games without his entire wide receiver corps).
Latest video is out! How Kevin Stefanski fixed Baker Mayfield and the #Browns
— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) January 6, 2021
Looked at:
- Baker's progression from before to after bye week
- How the scheme helps him stay in structure
- How the improved OL helps the entire offense
ðŸ“½ï¸ https://t.co/zJFfnqodQ9 pic.twitter.com/foD4y1TFPR
- Mayfield has been running a bit more of late. Over his last four games, he has run 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown. While these are far from earth-shattering numbers, if we project a few rushing points for Mayfield, the over looks a lot more attractive.
- Diontae Johnson gets so much volume, it is easy to project him for 15.5+ PPR points. In his last eight games with Ben Roethlisberger, Johnson saw 10+ targets in 7-of-8.
- In his last eight games with Roethlisberger, Johnson was targets a whopping 96 times (12.0 per game).
- Given how many targets he is likely to see and his ability to rack up receptions, Johnson does not need a touchdown to top 15.5 points. However, if he does get into the end zone, he is a virtual lock to hit the over. The Browns have given up the 5th-most receiving touchdowns (20) to opposing wide receivers this season.
Number 2: Low Offensive Expectations
Russell Wilson over 255.5 passing yards
Cooper Kupp over 5.5 receptions
DK Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards
We have mostly stuck with the two-player props this season, but this is a nice three-player correlation play with attractive numbers across the board.
We saw these two teams play a pair of ugly, low-scoring games against each other already this season. In Week 10 the Rams won 23-16 and in Week 16, the Seahawks got a 20-9 win. It makes sense that we would get some relatively low player props across the board in this one. However, that presents us with some potential value if this third meeting goes off script.
We need to think of these props in terms of ranges of outcomes. We are getting 5X our money if this hits, so we should imagine we played this game out 100 times. Would we get a decent amount of passing production in 17 of those 100 games? I think we would. Despite recent struggles, this Seattle pass offense is capable of elite performances and could get back on track at any moment. Now would be a good time to get their groove back.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks may have overreacted to Wilson’s struggles https://t.co/wr3Uc84QTD pic.twitter.com/0UVZ09w86N
— Field Gulls (@FieldGulls) January 7, 2021
Russell Wilson has been a very good playoff quarterback, with a career AY/A of 8.44 in 15 career games. Last season, he threw for 602 yards in two playoff games.
Metcalf was held to 59 yards two weeks ago against the Rams and cooled off considerably down the stretch of the 2020 regular season. He is going to have an incredibly difficult matchup whenever he is lined up across from Jalen Ramsey.
Despite these facts, there is some value on the over side of 67.5 receiving yards. Our Footballguys consensus projection is 73 receiving yards and we typically expect the stars to see a slight increase in targets in the playoffs as teams scheme to get the ball into the hands of their top players.
Cooper Kupp caught eight passes two weeks ago against the Seahawks.
Sean McVay said WR Cooper Kupp was a full participant at practice today and looked good and fresh. LT Andrew Whitworth was also a full participant in practice and is expected to start on Saturday. #LARams
— Michael J. Duarte (@michaeljduarte) January 7, 2021
In his last three games in Seattle, Kupp has caught 23 passes for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Number 1: Shootout in Buffalo
Josh Allen over 299.5 passing yards
Philip Rivers over 266.5 passing yards
- We are getting a strong correlation here. We would need this game to be relatively high-scoring and pass-heavy just over one in four times to come out ahead.
- Josh Allen has thrown for 320+ yards three times in the last five games. Last week, he threw for 224 yards before giving way to matt Barkley who threw for another 164 yards.
- Beyond the numbers, Allen has simply looked unstoppable. He is making jaw-dropping throws on the run on a regular basis and is emerging before our eyes as one of the NFL’s best players.
- Over the past five games Indianapolis has allowed 261 passing yards to Mike Glennon, 342 yards to Ben Roethlisberger, 316 yards to Derek Carr, and 714 yards to Deshaun Watson (in two matchups). That is an average of 326.6 passing yards per game against.
- The Colts would probably love to just pound away with Jonathan Taylor but Josh Allen and this incredibly hot Bills offense will have a good chance of jumping out to a lead and forcing the Colts offense to play in catchup mode.
- We know Philip Rivers can rack up the passing yards in a shootout. The Bills have an implied team total of over 28 points. When Colts opponents have scored 27+ points this season, Rivers is averaging 288 passing yards per game.