Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Looking back at last week

Last Week: +7 unit

Overall Season (+35 units)

We had another hot week, hitting on 8-of-10 individual props.

Hits

• We had fantasy point overs for Kyler Murray (22.5) and Jalen Hurts (18.5). These were both all but locked up by halftime.
• We squeaked by with fantasy point overs on J.K. Dobbins and Gardner Minshew, getting there in garbage time.
• We hit our fantasy point overs for Travis Kelce (17.5) who scored 20.8 and Alvin Kamara (16.5) who had 18.5.

Misses

• We had the under on passing yards for Baker Mayfield (255.5) and he threw for 297.
• We hit on the Jonathan Taylor half of our Indianapolis-Houston prop but Brandin Cooks (over 14.5 fantasy points) came up 2.6 points short.

Number 5: Friday Night Passing Unders

Drew Brees under 252.5 passing yards
Kirk Cousins under 250.5 passing yards

• Passing yardage under are not the most fun props to be on but we have hit on these short-week passing unders at a consistently high level all season. These short-week games have tended towards sloppier play. We also have a strong correlation play when taking the same side of both quarterbacks passing yardage prop.
• These two teams met in the playoffs last season and combined for only 450 passing yards in a low-scoring affair.
• These have been two of the best pass defenses in the NFL in the second half of the season.
• Since Week 10, Minnesota is allowing just 212 passing yards per game. They held the best quarterback they’ve faced in the second half, Tom Brady, to just 196 passing yards in Week 14. Some of this is simply due to teams finding the running game to be the path of least resistance. Expect New Orleans to attack the Vikings on the ground after seeing David Montgomery smash this front seven last week.
• Since Week 9, New Orleans is giving up just under 200 passing yards per game. Patrick Mahomes II came into last week’s matchup absolutely on fire with a six-game streak of huge passing games. He threw for a modest 254 yards against the Saints.

#Saints Film Room: How the defense played at a high level Sunday despite giving up 32 points via @AndrewBell_98 https://t.co/LGDodQGkwU pic.twitter.com/2dAI1DeD88

— Canal St. Chronicles (@SaintsCSC) December 23, 2020

• Drew Brees did not look quite right in his return from 11 broken ribs last week. He threw for 234 yards but even that number was a bit inflated by late-game desperation time. He racked up much of his yardage late in the fourth quarter with the Saints trailing by multiple scores.

Number 4: Belief in the Shanahan scheme, Fading Drake

Kenyan Drake under 12.5 fantasy points
Jeffery Wilson over 11.5 fantasy points

• Wilson over 11.5 fantasy points is my single-favorite prop of the entire week. With Raheem Mostert now on injured reserve, Wilson should dominate the 49ers backfield touches and that is a near-guarantee of fantasy success with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.

#49ers faced with more issues at running back after Raheem Moster's injury. What will Jeff Wilson Jr.'s role be? Will Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman be back next year? https://t.co/Rvojxcwd2S #mernews @CamInman @RMos_8Ball pic.twitter.com/epzU4Q0GxF

— Jon Becker (@JonBecker28) December 21, 2020

• 49ers backs have combined for 2,166 total yards, 21 touchdowns, and 80 receptions this season. That is good for 30.2 fantasy points per game. This is a huge fantasy pie from which Wilson will be eating a large slice.
• Even while sharing time with Mostert, Wilson has been seeing high-value touches. Over the last three weeks, he has averaged 4.0 targets per game and 2.7 carries per game inside the 10-yard line.
• The picture is less rosy for Kenyan Drake. The 49ers have given up the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
• Drake has found himself in a full-fledged timeshare with Chase Edmonds since returning from injury in Week 10. He has played 56% or fewer of the snaps in each of the six games since his return.
• Edmonds has been the more productive back over that stretch, running for over 4.0 yards per carry in every game. Meanwhile, Drake has averaged under 3.6 yards per carry in four-of-six games.
• Drake did not look fully healthy last week and was ineffective (10 carries for 26 yards) and could find his role diminished even further in Week 16.

Number 3: Crowded Backfield in Miami

Nelson Agholor over 11.5 fantasy points
Myles Gaskin under 10.5 fantasy points

• Nelson Agholor has quietly emerged as the Raiders top wide receiver. Since Week 11, he is averaging 8.6 targets per game and has been producing solid WR2 fantasy numbers (4.8-66-0.4, 13.8 fantasy points per game).
• Brian Flores is from the Bill Belichick coaching tree and has also shown an ability to limit an opposing offense's most dangerous pass catcher. The focus for the Dolphins defense this week is likely to be on slowing down Darren Waller by giving him extra attention in coverage. Agholor is the clear second option in this pass offense and if Waller is limited by the Dolphins defensive scheme, should see plenty of targets.

Marcus Mariota's target distribution last week:

Darren Waller - 12 👀
Nelson Agholor - 6
Josh Jacobs - 2
Zay Jones - 2
Hunter Renfrow - 1
Foster Moreau - 1
Jalen Richard - 1
Alec Ingold - 1

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) December 22, 2020

• The over/under of 10.5 fantasy points for Myles Gaskin would be fair if we assumed he was going to step right back into the clear lead role. However, he has played in just one game since Week 8 and may be eased back in.
• The Dolphins should not have to thrust Gaskin right back into a workhorse role given how well Salvon Ahmed has played. Ahmed gained 122 yards last week against the Patriots, which was the first time any Miami back had rushed for 100 yards since 2018.

Salvon Ahmed told his grandmother who is in the hospital that he'd rush for 100 yards for her.

No @MiamiDolphins player had done that in two years.
He finished with 122 yards and a TD. 🙏 (via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/CTxX5cQlD7

— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2020

Number 2: Trusting Montgomery

Gardner Minshew under 235.5 passing yards
David Montgomery over 74.5 rushing yards

• Since Week 12, David Montgomery has been the #1 overall fantasy running back, averaging 26.5 fantasy points per game.

David Montgomery is not just an RB1 since Week 12.

HES "THE" RB1

90 seconds of the big plays the hat3rs want to "take away" pic.twitter.com/DV2wwml25r

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 23, 2020

• While the Jeff Wilson prop listed above is my favorite individual prop of the week, Montgomery’s rushing prop comes in as a close second.
• Over his recent hot streak, Montgomery has run for 100+ yards in 3-of-4 and is averaging 108.5 rushing yards per game.
• Through the first 14 weeks, Montgomery had 20+ carries just one time (21 in Week 8). Last week, the Bears fed him with a career-high 32 carries and he responded with the best rushing game of his career.
• We should see 25+ carries again for Montgomery in what is practically a must-win game for Chicago’s playoff chances (odds of making the playoffs would fall to just 6% with a loss), making the over on this 74.5 rushing yard prop look extremely enticing.
• The Bears are 7.5-point favorites, so the game script should be favorable for Montgomery to handle another heavy workload.
• The matchup also could not be much better for Montgomery. The Jaguars are allowing the third-most rushing yards (1,640) to opposing running backs and seem to be leaning in to their pursuit of Trevor Lawrence in recent weeks.
• It is hard to trust anyone on this Jaguars offense right now. Even with a garbage-time explosion, Minshew only threw for 226 yards last week.
• We are getting some value on the under here because even if Minshew starts, there is no guarantee he will still be in the lineup for potential garbage-time production if he struggles. His starting role is not guaranteed and another rough first half would almost certainly see him replaced by Mike Glennon

Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon will compete to start at QB this week https://t.co/5sY51UTUN1

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 23, 2020

Number 1: King of December

Derrick Henry over 115.5 rushing yards
Aaron Jones over 80.5 rushing yards

• In his last 10 December games, Derrick Henry has rushed for 1,556 yards.
• We have seen enough of these late-season surges from Henry over the last few years to believe the late-season success and increased usage is by design. From Week 4 through Week 10, Henry averaged just under 20 carries per game. Since Week 11, he has had 24+ carries in all but one game.

Most rushing yards since 2019:

💥 Derrick Henry - 3,218
💥 Dalvin Cook - 2,619
💥 Derrick Henry AFTER contact - 2,503
💥 Nick Chubb - 2,423 pic.twitter.com/wWXxefUmct

— PFF (@PFF) December 24, 2020

• The Packers run defense was amongst the worst in the league through the first half of the season but has given up fewer yards of late. Some of that has been a product of game script, however. Green Bay has jumped out to big first half leads in five of the last six games. The Packers were also favored by more than a touchdown in all but one of those games. In a game that is expected to be close (3-point line), Green Bay is unlikely to be able to take away the run simply by scoring points early.
• Aaron Jones has also been rounding into form as a runner. Over the last four games, he is averaging 108.5 rushing yards per game.

Playoffs included, the #Packers have lost lost only 7 games under Matt Lafleur.

One common thread:

Aaron Jones receiving below 20 touches.

Meanwhile, the Packers are 12-0 when Jones DOES get 20 touches.

In those 12 wins, Jones is averaging 143.8 yards from scrimmage 🤯 pic.twitter.com/PgjrnIoifK

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) December 24, 2020

• With only one team in each conference getting a bye, this is a big game for the Packers and one where Jones could see a bit more usage than normal. With a win, Green Bay’s odds of securing the top seed in the NFC and the playoff bye improve to 88%.