Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Looking back at last week

Last Week: +3
Overall Season (+29 units)

We cooled off a bit but still managed a winning week by hitting a pair of 3X props.

Hits

• Fantasy point overs for David Montgomery (14.5) and Marvin Jones (10.5) were easy money. Montgomery was the week’s top running back with 27.1 points and Marvin Jones ended up being a top-five wide receiver on the week with 25.6.
• The passing yardage over for Taysom Hill (179.5) hit early, but we had to wait until the final seconds of the game for Matt Ryan (265.5) to hit his over.

Misses

• We hit on only half of our Cincinnati-Miami props. Brandon Allen came in well below his passing yardage prop with just 153 yards, but Devante Parker did not hit the over on receiving yards (71.5) after he got ejected for throwing a punch. Locking these in mid-week is both a blessing and a curse as we probably would have been on the other side of Parker’s total had we known Ryan Fitzpatrick was not going to start.
• We were on the wrong side of a correlation play on Deshaun Watson and Philip Rivers passing yards. Both hit the over together with a surprising number of chunk plays leading to big passing totals.
• We had fantasy point overs on Austin Ekeler (16.5) and James White (10.5). The Patriots going on the road and cruising to a 45-0 win was not the game script we envisioned.

Number 5: Thursday Night Special

Overs for Everyone

• It has been a long time since we recommended one of these long-shot props with five players. Last time, we nearly hit but came up about 10 Todd Gurley rushing yards short.
• The correlations are incredibly strong here making the play worth the risk. If you tell me Jared Goff can manage over 270.5 passing yards against this tough Patriots defense, I would be much more confident in Cooper Kupp having 68+ receiving yards and Robert Woods having 6+ catches. It would also increase the odds that Cam Newton is forced to pass enough to hit 176+ passing yards.
• Cam Akers does not fit neatly with our other four passing game overs but the total (50.5) is just too low here. Akers took over this backfield last week (21 carries) and looked good doing it.

Cam Akers dominated touches for the Rams in Week 13 and has a chance to be their workhorse going forward. pic.twitter.com/nZopPiVAWx

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 10, 2020

• This is the point in the season where highly-drafted rookie running backs who have been eased in are typically given the shot to take on a workhorse role and try to get the team across the finish line.
• Jared Goff has quietly put up a number of big passing games over the past month. He has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five. In three of those five games, he threw for 350+.

Number 4: One is not like the other

Deshaun Watson over 267.5 passing yards
Mitchell Trubisky under 254.5 passing yards

• What is the opposite of the meme with the two Spidermen pointing at each other?
• Deshaun Watson has been on fire. He has thrown for 300+ yards in seven of his last nine games. In the two he did not hit 300, he came close in one (281 passing yards) and the other was one of the worst weather games of the season (Cleveland Week 10).
• The Bears do not have a defense we want to attack regularly but it is not one we have to avoid either. Matthew Stafford exposed some holes last week while throwing for 402 yards.
• One has to feel for Trubisky. It is hard enough for any highly-drafted quarterback who does not meet expectations but that failure is only exacerbated when Patrick Mahomes II and Deshaun Watson are the next two quarterbacks selected. There is added pressure for Trubisky this week.

Mitchell Trubisky on draft-day link with Deshaun Watson: "I don't control that narrative"https://t.co/nD25Qc3cpb pic.twitter.com/tif1Fs5d9z

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 10, 2020

• In his career, Mitchell Trusbisky has started 48 games. He has thrown for more than 254.5 passing yards in just 10 of them (21%). We are getting some real value here on the under.
• Houston’s defense gives up the second-most rushing yards in the NFL (151 per game) and David Montgomery has been hot. The Bears game plan is not likely to be pass-heavy.

Number 3: Bad defense trumps bad offense

Andy Dalton over 284.5 passing yards
Brandon Allen over 193.5 passing yards

• We know that good offense usually beats good defense. In this game, we could see bad defense boost a pair of mediocre offenses to success.

Scheme, players or effort? Dallas Cowboys have no answers for historically bad defense. https://t.co/Y32WQtoWbc

— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) December 10, 2020

• This is a correlation play betting that this low-total game (42.5 points) flies over. If so, you have to like both quarterbacks' chances of hitting the over on their passing yardage props.
• Brandon Allen is not a starting-caliber NFL quarterback, but he is good enough to take advantage of a Dallas defense that ranks 30th in DVOA.
• The Bengals lone team strength on the roster right now is wide receiver talent, and they will have to exploit the advantage Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Co. provide over the Dallas defensive backs to keep this game close.
• The Bengals defense ranks 29th in DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA.
• To say that Bengals head coach Zac Taylor handled Andy Dalton’s demotion poorly last year would be an understatement. This is a clear “revenge game” spot for Dalton, which may lead to the Cowboys taking a couple of extra shots in the passing game even if they have the game in control.

Andy Dalton's first comments about returning to Cincinnati (this Sunday) come with a smile. pic.twitter.com/PVhcHmlCzq

— Joe Danneman (@FOX19Joe) December 9, 2020

Number 2: Panthers Stack

Teddy Bridgewater (-11.5) more passing yards than Drew Lock
Robby Anderson (-24.5) more receiving yards than Jerry Jeudy

• We get a strong correlation play here with the Carolina passing game stack.
• Over his last three starts, Drew Lock has a 3-to-7 touchdown to interception ratio. Expect Denver to come out with a run-heavy game plan to try to protect their young passer from himself.
• With Christian McCaffrey expected to be back this week, the Panthers have one of the deepest and most talented groups of pass-catchers in the NFL for Teddy Bridgewater to throw to.
• Robby Anderson has been consistently productive in Joe Brady’s Carolina offense. He has had 10+ fantasy points in 11-of-12 games. Anderson has 74+ receiving yards in 7-of-12 games.
• Jerry Jeudy is playing through a shoulder injury and has hit the rookie wall in a major way. Over the last three weeks, he has just 4 catches for 42 yards total.
• Jeudy is also letting his emotions get the best of him and expressing his frustration publicly. This is a bad situation all around as it becomes increasingly obvious that Drew Lock is not the guy for the Broncos. Denver fans should just be rooting for the best draft pick possible at this point.

Jerry Jeudy is regressing. Not just in production, but in spirit. If he isn’t careful, the first-year receiver might just fall off the map.

via @NathanSerious #BroncosCountry https://t.co/bRbIM0GsvE

— The Denver Post (@denverpost) December 9, 2020

Number 1: Rapidfire Bills Stack

Josh Allen (-2.5) more fantasy points than Ben Roethlisberger
Stefon Diggs (+0.5) more fantasy points than Diontae Johnson

Is #BillsMafia @JoshAllenQB primed to be the next Big Ben?@gmfb @KyleBrandt thinks he could be even better: pic.twitter.com/yRtTptNqdz

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) December 10, 2020

• We have a clear correlation play with Josh Allen and his top wide receiver against Ben Roethlisberger and his top target.
• This one is based less on numbers and more on a gut feeling that the Steelers are going to come in with a game plan that is much less pass-heavy than what we have seen in recent weeks. In recent comments, Mike Tomlin has indicated he knows he needs to get the running game going.
• While Diontae Johnson has been the clear-cut top target for the Steelers when healthy, he seems to be on thin ice with Mike Tomlin due to his league-leading nine dropped passes. There is some value in putting our money on more of a sure thing in Stefon Diggs.
• Josh Allen passed the eye test with flying colors last week against a good San Francisco defense. He completed 80% of his passes while throwing for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns.

'Like I’ve often said, I expect guys to make routine plays, routinely. When there is a pattern of that not happening, we have to look at who we are throwing the ball to.' - Coach Mike Tomlin

More: https://t.co/79TDIcImXg pic.twitter.com/t1dbnuUTvQ

— Teresa Varley (@Teresa_Varley) December 8, 2020