Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Looking back at last week
Last Week: +3
Overall Season (+29 units)
We cooled off a bit but still managed a winning week by hitting a pair of 3X props.
- Fantasy point overs for David Montgomery (14.5) and Marvin Jones Jr (10.5) were easy money. Montgomery was the week’s top running back with 27.1 points and Marvin Jones Jr ended up being a top-five wide receiver on the week with 25.6.
- The passing yardage over for Taysom Hill (179.5) hit early, but we had to wait until the final seconds of the game for Matt Ryan (265.5) to hit his over.
- We hit on only half of our Cincinnati-Miami props. Brandon Allen came in well below his passing yardage prop with just 153 yards, but Devante Parker did not hit the over on receiving yards (71.5) after he got ejected for throwing a punch. Locking these in mid-week is both a blessing and a curse as we probably would have been on the other side of Parker’s total had we known Ryan Fitzpatrick was not going to start.
- We were on the wrong side of a correlation play on Deshaun Watson and Philip Rivers passing yards. Both hit the over together with a surprising number of chunk plays leading to big passing totals.
- We had fantasy point overs on Austin Ekeler (16.5) and James White (10.5). The Patriots going on the road and cruising to a 45-0 win was not the game script we envisioned.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Overs for Everyone
- It has been a long time since we recommended one of these long-shot props with five players. Last time, we nearly hit but came up about 10 Todd Gurley rushing yards short.
- The correlations are incredibly strong here making the play worth the risk. If you tell me Jared Goff can manage over 270.5 passing yards against this tough Patriots defense, I would be much more confident in Cooper Kupp having 68+ receiving yards and Robert Woods having 6+ catches. It would also increase the odds that Cam Newton is forced to pass enough to hit 176+ passing yards.
- Cam Akers does not fit neatly with our other four passing game overs but the total (50.5) is just too low here. Akers took over this backfield last week (21 carries) and looked good doing it.
- This is the point in the season where highly-drafted rookie running backs who have been eased in are typically given the shot to take on a workhorse role and try to get the team across the finish line.
- Jared Goff has quietly put up a number of big passing games over the past month. He has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five. In three of those five games, he threw for 350+.