Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Russell Wilson under 317.5 passing yards
Kyler Murray under 291.5 passing yards
- We have had some luck with unders in Thursday night games this season. The short week and quick turnaround have led to some sloppy offensive showings.
- We have a strong correlation play here. We are essentially betting that this game does not turn into a shootout. Or in the alternative, that the teams have enough success on the ground that we do not see huge passing numbers.
- Our consensus projection for Murray tonight is 270 passing yards. Our consensus projection for Russell Wilson is 290 passing yards. We are getting a lot of value on the unders in this spot.
- Arizona has held 9-of-10 opponents to under 285 passing yards this season. The lone exception was Wilson in Week 7, so there is obviously precedent for Wilson having huge success in this matchup. However, this is a solid pass defense and Wilson has finally started to cool off over the last few weeks.
- As dominant as Murray has been this season, he has not put up huge passing numbers. He has only topped 291.5 passing yards in two games this season. The Cardinals have been intent on getting the running game going of late and have had success doing so.
As the @AZCardinals head to Seattle, a look at the importance of getting RB Kenyan Drake back in the mix, and other notes and thoughts in some Wednesday Before #AZvsSEA:https://t.co/TgY0h831fK
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) November 18, 2020
Number 4: Run-Heavy Game?
Matthew Stafford under 275.5 passing yards
Teddy Bridgewater under 256.5 passing yards
- First, this is a strong correlation play. If one of these two quarterbacks passes for fewer yards than projected, the other is more likely to go under, also.
- We are getting the benefit of some questionable tags here. Both quarterbacks are dealing with injuries. Matthew Stafford is expected to play but has a thumb injury on his throwing hand. The injury has been reported as a partially torn ligament. This is an injury that could easily limit Stafford's effectiveness.
- Not only is Stafford banged up but so are many of his top targets. Kenny Golladay returned to practice recently and is expected to return from a hip injury that cost him the last two games. How close he will be to 100% is still up in the air. Both Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola have been sidelined this week. T.J. Hockenson is also trying to play through a toe injury. This is a passing game with a ton of injury questions.
Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater limping towards battle of injured QBs https://t.co/LuW491hpMz
— Detroit Free Press (@freep) November 18, 2020
- On the other side, Teddy Bridgewater is also questionable due to a knee injury. Even if he is able to suit up on Sunday, it will be having missed a week of practice and with limited mobility.
- Aside from the injuries, this is a game that sets up well for a run-heavy approach on both sides. Carolina has the 25th ranked rushing defense (DVOA) and Detroit’s rush defense in 27th.
How many rushing yards will D’Andre Swift have on Sunday?@justincsimon thinks he’s in for another big game https://t.co/hQYeiDpaks
— Pride of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) November 19, 2020
Number 3: Overs in Philly
Baker Mayfield over 202.5 passing yards
Miles Sanders over 65.5 rushing yards
- Sanders has had 80+ rushing yards in 5-of-6 games this season.
- Cleveland is a middle of the pack rushing defense, ranking 18th in DVOA against the run.
- Sanders has proven to be one of the more explosive running backs in the league. While we should always take YPC stats with a grain of salt, the fact Sanders is averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season is indicative of how often he has been able to get loose for long runs. His speed and explosiveness, once he gets through the line, give him the chance to hit a rushing total this low on a single play.
Miles Sanders rushes: 0.19 Net Expected Points per carry, 51.2% Success Rate (per @numberFire)
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) November 17, 2020
Carson Wentz drop backs: -0.10 Net Expected Points per drop back, 42.7% Success Rate
Maybe the Eagles should actually #EstablishIt.
- Mayfield’s passing total here is incredibly low, which is understandable given his two most recent performances (122 passing yards against the Raiders and 132 against the Texans). However, both of those games were played in brutal conditions with wind gusts of 50+ MPH. The current weather forecast in Philadelphia on Sunday shows only minimal wind.
#Browns Baker Mayfield: “Those are the 2 windiest games I’ve ever been a part of.” The one to Jarvis before the half “got caught in a jet stream and went right over his head”
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) November 18, 2020
- This is a game where we should expect the Eagles to pack the box to take away the run and dare Mayfield to beat them throwing the ball. Expect Mayfield to have success hitting his tight ends off of play-action.
Number 2: Young quarterbacks moving opposite directions
Tua Tagovailoa (+15.5) more passing yards than Drew Lock
Devante Parker (+0.5) more receptions than Jerry Jeudy
- As we typically do, we are getting a nice correlation play here with the Dolphins passing game.
- Drew Lock struggled mightily against the Raiders last week, throwing four interceptions and showing major issues reading the defense.
Drew Lock's regression has been sad to watch. Scheme change did him no favours at all. Throws to covered flat here on Third-and-6 instead of locating Jeudy open against man underneath after the pick. pic.twitter.com/zn0iwEERpu
— Cian (@Cianaf) November 18, 2020
- Lock also suffered a rib injury and could be limited this weekend. Assuming he plays, it would behoove the Broncos to try to establish the running game and not put too much pressure on Lock to carry the offense. Denver needs to limit the hits Lock takes.
- Miami’s defense ranks 8th best against the pass but is 29th against the run (DVOA). Given the rib injury and Lock’s recent struggles, it would be coaching malpractice for Denver not to take a very run-heavy approach.
- Jerry Jeudy has only two games all season with more than four catches. He has only one game with more than five receptions. We likely will not need a huge day from Devante Parker to come out ahead (or even) in the head-to-head against Jeudy.
These two plays show Dolphins’ DeVante Parker, Tua Tagovailoa are making progress with chemistry https://t.co/Kfq0TFiARL pic.twitter.com/akkAtxePh3
— South Florida Sun Sentinel (@SunSentinel) November 19, 2020
- Our consensus actually projects Tagovailoa (217) to throw for more yards than Lock (200). When you add in the fact that we are getting 15.5 yards, there is a ton of value on the Tagovailoa end of this prop.
Number 1: MNF Special
Ronald Jones II more than 12.5 fantasy points
Robert Woods less than 15.5 fantasy points
- Ronald Jones II had what looked like a breakout performance last week against the Panthers, rushing for 192 yards. While Jones has shot himself in the foot a few times with fumbles, he seems to clearly have more juice than Leonard Fournette.
“I don’t even think ‘Ro’ understands how good he could be,” Bucs running backs coach Todd McNair said of Ronald Jones II. #Bucs #GoBucs @NFLSTROUD https://t.co/Q7VkBQj8PH
— Frank Pastor (@FrankPastor66) November 19, 2020
- The Rams have given up the 3rd-fewest passing yards in the NFL (199.7 per game) and have one of the NFL’s best pass rushes. This is a spot where the Buccaneers, as 4-point home favorites, should lean on the run and not subject their aging quarterback to punishment from Aaron Donald and the Rams front. A run-heavy approach would be smart.
- Robert Woods has seen his role in the Rams offense diminish in recent weeks, being outperformed by both Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds.
Josh Reynolds has more targets than Robert Woods since the end of Week 4.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 16, 2020
- Woods couldn’t get there last week (5-33-0) against Seattle’s league-worst pass defense. Why should we expect him to have success against the league’s top-ranked pass defense?
Looking back at last week
Last Week: -5 Units
Overall Season (+8 units)
After a great Week 9, we had our worst week of the year in Week 10, missing on all five of our props.
Misses
- We were right on the under for Jonathan Taylor (9.5 fantasy points) but A.J. Brown had a down week and did not come through for us on his (over 14.5 fantasy points).
- Our Carolina stack (Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson) did not come close against the Buccaneers stack.
- Our Jaguars stack came up short against the Packers.
- We hit on the passing over for Josh Allen but Kyler Murray came up just short on the other side, only throwing for 245 yards.
- Dalvin Cook and Allen Robinson both came up a bit short on Monday night.