Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Todd Gurley more than 62.5 rushing yards, everyone else less.
- We have not done one of these in a long time but let’s have some fun with a long shot prop tonight. While it is assumed that every recommendation in this article is for “one unit,” realistically you probably do not want to go that big on one of these long shot, five-player props.
- We want to have a theory of how the game will play out when attempting to thread the needle on one of these multi-player props. This helps us take advantage of positive correlations to narrow the odds.
- Our theory of tonight’s game is that it is not a shootout, with both teams having success on the ground. Todd Gurley ran for 121 yards in his Week 5 matchup against these Panthers.
- The Panthers are only allowing 9.2 yards per reception (fewest in the league) and held Matt Ryan to 226 yards in their previous meeting.
- This will be an outdoor game and weather could be a minor issue. As of Thursday morning, the forecast for tonight calls for: Showers early, then partly cloudy overnight. Low near 55F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
- We need to hit on 5% of props like this to turn a profit. If this game was played 20 times (especially in these weather conditions), chances are good we get at least one where the respective running games dominate and the passing numbers are below season averages.