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Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
Todd Gurley more than 62.5 rushing yards, everyone else less.
- We have not done one of these in a long time but let’s have some fun with a long shot prop tonight. While it is assumed that every recommendation in this article is for “one unit,” realistically you probably do not want to go that big on one of these long shot, five-player props.
- We want to have a theory of how the game will play out when attempting to thread the needle on one of these multi-player props. This helps us take advantage of positive correlations to narrow the odds.
- Our theory of tonight’s game is that it is not a shootout, with both teams having success on the ground. Todd Gurley ran for 121 yards in his Week 5 matchup against these Panthers.
- The Panthers are only allowing 9.2 yards per reception (fewest in the league) and held Matt Ryan to 226 yards in their previous meeting.
- This will be an outdoor game and weather could be a minor issue. As of Thursday morning, the forecast for tonight calls for: Showers early, then partly cloudy overnight. Low near 55F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
- We need to hit on 5% of props like this to turn a profit. If this game was played 20 times (especially in these weather conditions), chances are good we get at least one where the respective running games dominate and the passing numbers are below season averages.
Number 4: Brown stays hot
A.J. Brown more than 77.5 receiving yards
Joe Mixon less than 64.5 rushing yards.
- Mixon remains out with a foot injury. If he plays this weekend, expect him to be less than 100%.
- The Bengals offensive line could be without four starting offensive linemen this weekend.
A very long injury list today for the Bengals. RB Joe Mixon out again today. LT Jonah Williams officially listed with a stinger. pic.twitter.com/9HYb7RaEH5
— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) October 28, 2020
- The Bengals offense has been all Joe Burrow of late. Burrow had almost as many rushing yards (34) as all of the running backs (40) last week while throwing for 406 yards.
- In three games since returning from injury, A.J. Brown has averaged 97.7 receiving yards per game.
A.J. Brown = PLAYMAKER 😤 @Ihartitz pic.twitter.com/HuEOTWv7VS
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 28, 2020
- The biggest weakness of the Bengals secondary has been tackling. Brown is one of the NFL’s best after the catch and his physicality is likely to give the Bengals secondary fits.
Number 3: Lions Stack
Matthew Stafford more passing yards than Philip Rivers (+30.5)
Kenny Golladay more receptions than T.Y. Hilton (+0.5)
- This is a strong correlation play. If Matthew Stafford throws for at least 31 more yards than Philip Rivers, odds are high that Kenny Golladay has more catches than T.Y. Hilton.
- The Rivers-Hilton connection just has not come together this season. In the last Colts game, Rivers completed 29 passes and only one of them was to Hilton.
- The Lions defense is giving up 131.8 rushing yards per game (7th-most). If the Colts can get out to an early lead, we could see a lot of Jonathan Taylor.
- Kenny Golladay has been fantastic since returning to the lineup in Week 3. He is averaging 5.0 receptions per game and making spectacular catches on a regular basis.
Kenny Golladay made big catch after big catch in the @Lions HUGE comeback win! @kgxix | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/Haeyk1KreG
— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2020
Number 2: Broncos-Chargers remains grounded
Melvin Gordon more than 55.5 rushing yards
Keenan Allen less than 7.5 receptions
- Melvin Gordon projects for a huge workload. Phillip Lindsay is still in the concussion protocol and questionable for this weekend. Even when getting blown out last weekend, the Broncos running backs combined for 29 carries. Gordon should see in the neighborhood of 20 carries on Sunday.
- Los Angeles is allowing 113 rushing yards per game and Denver is rushing for 113 yards per game.
- The Chargers playing at home just gave up 119 rushing yards to James Robinson.
- Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen have been fantastic this season. There is a real connection here and Allen has had more than 7.5 receptions in 3-of-5 games played with Herbert.
- Despite that fact, the odds are against Allen catching eight or more passes in what could be a slow-paced, low-scoring (game total of 44.5) affair in Denver. It is just too big of a number to feel confident in.
- In 10 career games against the Broncos, Allen is averaging 4.9 receptions per game and has gone over 7.5 catches in a game just 20% of the time.
Number 1: Monday Night Special
Tom Brady more than 17.5 fantasy points
Daniel Jones more than 14.5 fantasy points
- You have to love these correlated quarterback plays. If the game goes over the total (46 points), odds are high both Brady and Jones top these fantasy projections and we only need that to happen one of every four times to break even on props like this.
- Footballguys projects Brady to score 19.7 fantasy points and Daniel Jones to score 16.2. There is a lot of value in the over in both cases.
- Daniel Jones finally had most of his top pass catchers in the lineup together last week against the Eagles with the return of Sterling Shepard. He put up over 28 fantasy points in that game.
- The Giants are leaning on Jones more as a runner. He has had at least 45 rushing yards in four of the last five games. Over the last two weeks, Jones has run for 166 yards.
#NYG RBs coach Burton Burns was jokingly asked whether Daniel Jones is now in the RBs room for meetings: "I'd love to have him the way he's been running the ball" Jones is the team's leading rusher with 296 yds (124 more than the next closest player Devonta Freeman) #giantschat
— Lance Medow (@LanceMedow) October 29, 2020
- The Buccaneers have an excellent pass defense but when you combine Jones’ rushing production to what should be a very fantasy-friendly game script (Giants are 10-point underdogs), the over on 14.5 fantasy points looks like a good bet.
- Brady has gone over 17.5 fantasy points in 6-of-7 games this season.
- Last week, Brady threw for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns while also adding a rushing score.
Tom Brady has rarely played better than he did for the Bucs in October. #Bucs #GoBucs @buccaneers @tombrady https://t.co/Ir72Yy9Kq0
— Sports by Tampa Bay Times (@TBTimes_Sports) October 29, 2020
- The Giants allowed Carson Wentz to throw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns while running for 14 yards and a touchdown in their last outing. They do not have the defensive back depth to match up with all of Tampa Bay’s passing weapons.
- To date, the Giants have fared much better against the run (11th in DVOA) than against the pass (27th in DVOA).
Looking back at last week
Last Week - 1 Unit
Overall Season (+2.5 units)
Hits
- We had a good read on the Bills-Jets matchup. Josh Allen threw for 307 yards, hitting the over on his passing prop by over 45 yards. On the other side, we had Sam Darnold under 253.5 passing yards and he only threw for 120.
Misses
- We went over on fantasy points for both Darius Slayton (12.5) and Boston Scott (11.5). Only Scott got there.
- We also had fantasy point over for Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. Neither quite got there despite throwing for 340 and 338 yards, respectively.
- We split on the Broncos-Chiefs, correctly calling under 4.5 catches for Noah Fant while Clyde Edwards-Helaire came up 12 yards short on the rushing prop.
- Our Chargers-Jaguars props with Justin Jackson and Keelan Cole didn’t come close to hitting.