Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Thursday Night Special
We need to hit on one out of every four of these quarterback props to break even. There is a better than 1-in-4 chance tonight’s game is a lower-scoring affair where neither passing offense gets hot.
Both teams have Top 5 pass defenses. The Bears rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and are allowing just 230 passing yards per game. Somewhat quietly, the Tampa Bay defense has also been fantastic this season. The team has the second-ranked defense overall (DVOA) and is 4th-best against the pass.
Tom Brady is coming off of a big week and has gone over 265.5 passing yards in half of his games to date. However, he is expected to be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard tonight. There will not be a pass catcher in the Buccaneers offense who demands extra attention from the Bears defense.
Even with a bunch of backup pass catchers, Brady could hit the over here if this game turns into a shootout but how confident are we in the Bears offense to put up a bunch of points? Chicago’s implied team total tonight is just 20.5 points.
The Bears had just 107 passing yards in the first half last week and Nick Foles only finished with 249 in the game due to a pair of garbage time drives late.
Number 4: Going against inflated numbers
These quarterback passing-yard props are the best values on the board both because of the odds and the correlation factor. We hit on a pair last week by going with the overs but we will stick with the under for our second-straight pick this week.
There is no denying these are two bad defenses and we could certainly see a shootout. However, if this game was hypothetically played 100 times, the quarterbacks would fail to hit these huge passing-yard totals more than 25 times (our break-even number).
Atlanta is likely to be without Julio Jones and this is not the same offense without his presence.
Calvin Ridley is also less than 100% while dealing with an ankle injury. He was completely shutout last week and played just 62% of the snaps.
Teddy Bridgwater has only thrown for more than 290.5 yards once this season. He has thrown for 290+ yards in 1/6th of his career games.
Number 3: Riding the hot hands
Joe Burrow on connection with Tyler Boyd: "He does a great job of just working to get open. He's always working, he's always doing something at the top of a route or if something breaks down. He’s always trying to get open in zone and man (coverage)." #Bengals— Tyler Dragon (@TheTylerDragon) October 5, 2020
Lamar Jackson has averaged 112 rushing yards per game in three starts against the Bengals.
The Bengals are not likely to make much hay against a Baltimore defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run.
The Bengals have thrown the 2nd-most passes in the NFL to date. In a game where Baltimore has an implied team total of 32 points, the game script sets up for Burrow to have another busy day.
Lamar Jackson has gone over 60.5 rushing yards in 19/26 NFL starts (73%).
Note: We do want to keep an eye on news about Lamar Jackson’s health. He has what is reported to be a very minor knee injury but if he misses more practice time, confidence in this play would drop.