Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 4

Photo: Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Number 5: Thursday Night Special

Jerry Jeudy MORE than 4.5 receptions
Frank Gore MORE than 50.5 rushing yards

• The Jets have a strong rush defense (3rd in DVOA) but are terrible against the pass (31st in DVOA). The Broncos are not going to be able to line up and run it down the throat of the tough Jets run defense.

• With Courtland Sutton out, it has to be a Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant game if the Broncos are going to put up points. We project the Broncos for 20 completions tonight and more than half of them should be to Fant or Jeudy.

• Jeudy just saw 9 targets last week and is averaging 8.0 per game. He has seen at least seven targets in every game and will undoubtedly be given opportunities to make plays tonight.

Jerry Jeudy should probably be at the top of your buy low list. First 3 NFL games against the Titans, Steelers, & Bucs with a mixture of Jeff Driskel & Drew Lock at QB. Earning 8 targets per game & gets the Jets secondary this week.

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 29, 2020

• Jeudy had some drops in Week 1 and is not off to as fast a start as expected. However, despite that, he is still is averaging 4.3 receptions per game. At some point soon, it is going to click for Jeudy. He is an elite talent and his breakout game is coming. Perhaps tonight.

• Brett Rypien is making his first NFL start, which will understandably give many pause about placing chips on the Broncos passing game. However, Rypien was a draft favorite for many talented quarterback evaluators. His strengths, accuracy, and ability to diagnose a defense, pair well with Jeudy’s route-running ability.

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP)Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room No.146: QB Brett Rypien (Boise State) https://t.co/BMblgBkUkE pic.twitter.com/OmymKc1OCJ

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) July 28, 2019

• Despite getting blown out each of the past two weeks, Frank Gore rushed for 63 and 57 yards. The Jets can’t just abandon the run and go pass-heavy with their current personnel. We saw Gore still getting plenty of carries in the fourth quarter last week despite the Jets trailing by more than 20 points.

• David Dodds projects the Jets to rush for 98 yards tonight. It is hard to see too many of those yards going to either Kalen Ballage or Lamical Perine.

Number 4: Belief in two young quarterbacks

Joe Burrow MORE than 259.5 passing yards
Gardner Minshew MORE than 255.5 passing yards

• These propositions where we can 3X our buy-in are great values. We only need to hit on one of every four to break even. If we hit on more than 25%, we turn a profit.

• Joe Burrow has proven himself to be a quick study at the NFL level and the Bengals have been unafraid to lean on him. Burrow has thrown for 316 and 312 yards, respectively, in the last two weeks.

• Burrow is currently second in the NFL with 141 passing attempts (just two attempts fewer than Dak Prescott).

• Burrow is the real deal and has proven his ability to make plays outside the structure of the offense. He has had success evading the rush, extending the play with his legs, and then hitting receivers running open down the field.

• For a bad team, the Bengals are pretty stacked at wide receiver. Tyler Boyd has had back-to-back seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards and looks headed towards his third in a row. Boyd is coming off of a 10 catch, 125-yard receiving performance last week. A.J. Green is off to a slow start but is a proven commodity with six 1,000-yard receiving seasons in his career. Tee Higgins is also emerging as a dangerous target. He caught 5 passes for 40 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.

• Jacksonville has the NFL’s worst pass defense (32nd in DVOA). The Jaguars defense fell apart last week against the Dolphins who easily jumped out to a big lead in the first half.

• Gardner Minshew is also well-positioned for a strong passing game. He has thrown for 339 and 275 passing yards in the past two weeks.

• D.J. Chark is a big deal for the Jaguars offense. It is not just his actual contributions (1,008 yards and 9 touchdowns last year) but also the attention he demands from opposing defenses. Chark ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the combine a few years ago and is one of the most dangerous deep threats in the league. Chark’s absence last week made life more difficult for Minshew and the Jaguars offense. He appears on track to return as head coach Doug Marrone said Wednesday that Chark has passed all tests regarding the chest injury that kept him out last Thursday night.

• Taking MORE on both Burrow and Minshew is a positive correlation play. If one of the two has early success, the opposing offense is also likely to have to become more aggressive to try to keep up.

Number 3: Riding the hot hands

Russell Wilson MORE than 298.5 passing yards
Ryan Fitzpatrick MORE than 272.5 passing yards

• Russell Wilson has never received a single vote for NFL MVP in his career. The stars seem to be aligning for Wilson to have a career year and finally get the recognition he deserves as one of the NFL’s best players. Through three weeks, he has thrown 14 touchdowns and is averaging over 308 passing yards per game.

• If we were betting on any team being able to slow down the league’s hottest passer it would not be the Dolphins. Through three weeks, Miami is the NFL’s worst defense, ranking last in DVOA.

• Both Chris Carson (knee) and Carlos Hyde (shoulder) are questionable for the Seahawks. With the top two backs dinged up, it is hard to imagine a run-heavy game plan this week. This is another spot where it makes sense for the Seahawks to #letrusscook.

With Seattle's Russell Wilson coming to town, Ryan Fitzpatrick is gearing up with the idea there's no such thing as a safe lead. https://t.co/EZ5thQl563

— PB Post Sports (@pbpsports) October 1, 2020

• Ryan Fitzpatrick is always up for a shootout. When Josh Allen came into Miami in Week 2 and threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns, Fitzpatrick threw it 47 times for 328 yards. In terms of game scripts, a repeat of that game looks like the most likely scenario.

• This is not the tough Seattle defense we have come to expect under Pete Carroll. Seattle ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense.

• Through three weeks, Seattle is allowing 430.7 passing yards per game. This is just a jaw-dropping number. It is almost 140 yards more per game than the league’s #30 pass defense.

• To date, Cam Newton’s 397 passing yards in Week 2 are the least allowed by Seattle.

Number 2: Blowouts and Benchings

Lamar Jackson LESS than 242.5 passing yards
Dwayne Haskins LESS than 222.5 passing yards

• The Ravens are 13 point favorites in what is expected to be a lopsided affair. Taking under is a high-correlation play. If Haskins cannot find early success against the Ravens defense (increasing his chances of throwing for fewer than 222.5 yards), then it is even more likely that the Ravens can play conservatively and win on the ground.

• The only strength of the Washington Football Team to date has been the pass defense, which ranks 2nd in DVOA. The run defense is slightly below average (18th). Washington’s offense is the fourth-worst in the NFL. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent, a run-heavy game plan makes sense for Baltimore.

• Lamar Jackson is averaging just 62.3 passing yards per game in the second half this season, largely due to the fact the Ravens have twice jumped out to big leads. That is the most likely game script again this week.

• Defensive end Chase Young and defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis are both going to be out in Week 4. What has been a very good defensive line group will pose less of a challenge to the Ravens.

• Dwayne Haskins has struggled. He has thrown an accurate pass on a league-worst 66% of this passes. Washington’s pass offense ranks 31st in DVOA.

Ron Rivera admits 'cut-off point' with Dwayne Haskins: https://t.co/bpgmHqeLem pic.twitter.com/Wbiskh5vEE

— 247Sports (@247Sports) September 29, 2020

• Haskins is also on the hot seat with frustration over his play growing. Rivera has talked this week about how his preference is for Haskins to learn on the field but there reaches a point where maybe his best chance of growth is to watch from the sidelines for a while.

Number 1: 49ers Roll?

Nick Mullens MORE than 265.5 passing yards
Carson Wentz LESS than 237.5 passing yards

• These are two teams that seem to be headed in opposite directions. Despite injuries, the 49ers have had back-to-back dominating performances (against bad teams). Despite preseason expectations, the Eagles might be a bad team too. The Eagles are 29th in Team DVOA, just ahead of the Giants and Jets.

• Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia pass offense is a mess. The Eagles offense had 91 snaps last weeks in an OT game against a mediocre Bengals defense and Wentz could still only manage 225 passing yards. Shockingly, the Eagles pass offense ranks dead last in the NFL (DVOA), behind even teams like the Broncos and Jets.

• The Eagles offense is without a pair of key pass-catchers, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert. Desean Jackson is trending towards doubtful with a hamstring injury.

• Late-round rookie John Hightower led the Eagles wide receivers in snaps last week, followed by Greg Ward and Deontay Burnett. The trio of Hightower, Ward, and Burnett does not exactly strike fear in the heart of opposing defenses.

• On the other side of the ball, Nick Mullens should have plenty of success against a mediocre Eagles defense that allowed 312 yards to Joe Burrow last week.

• While Kyle Shanahan has been emphatic that Jimmy Garoppolo is the unquestioned starter whenever he returns from injury, we should consider Nick Mullens a starting-caliber quarterback. His early-career statistics are extremely impressive.

Only 2 QB in NFL history have thrown for 2,600 Pass Yards and 14 TD in their first 9 career starts:

- Patrick Mahomes II
- NICK MULLENS pic.twitter.com/AZa72TvfHX

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) September 30, 2020

• Mullens racked up 343 passing yards last week even though the game was out of hand for much of the second half. The 49ers pass offense is loaded with high-percentage short passes that are almost extensions of the running game.

Looking back at last week

Overall (-1.5 Units)

Our long shot New England-Las Vegas stack did not come through. We had split-decision losses with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming through for us but Gardner Minshew coming up short, Patrick Mahomes II going over on passing yards while Lamar Jackson struggled, and Nick Mullens smashing his prop while Daniel Jones came up short.

We hit on our Bengals-Eagles prop with Miles Sanders going over 70.5 rushing yards by 24.5 and Tyler Boyd’s 10 receptions easily going over his 4.5 reception prop.