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This article is about an 8-minute read.
We got together with the Footballguys staff members and asked a simple question: Which player -- generally taken in the third round -- do you least-like having on your team?
Here are their answers.
Jordan McNamara
My least favorite right now is Chris Carson. We do not have enough information on his hip to be comfortable drafting him ahead of Devin Singletary or David Johnson for example. If we learn Carson is on schedule prior to the season, I will feel more comfortable.
Jeff Pasquino
I would be skipping over tight end in this round, as Baltimore's passing game is improving and Mark Andrews seems very overpriced. Zach Ertz is a stronger option, but Dallas Goedert and the rest of the receivers in Philly (who were all sidelined early last year) will eat into Ertz's numbers. I'd have to say that Andrews is my least favorite pick for both risk/reward and value in Round 4. If I am spending a Top 40-45 pick on a tight end, it better be Kittle or Kelce.
Jeff Haseley
It's just too early to pull the trigger on Singletary in the fourth round, not with David Johnson or Jonathan Taylor still on the board. Singletary could develop into a more productive back in 2020, but he also could take a step back due to the presence of Zack Moss in the Bills plans. The uncertainty there is enough for me to look elsewhere, especially in the fourth round.
Jason Wood
I'm with Pasquino and Haseley in that my least favorites are Mark Andrews and Devin Singletary. Andrews was a crucial part of multiple championship teams for me last year, but that's because he delivered TE1 value at a late-round price. This year, he's going after Kelce and Kittle, but before Ertz. That's ridiculous. If you're not going to grab one of the two elite tight ends, you can wait. And if you feel compelled to take a tight end in this range, Ertz is the better play regardless. As to Singletary, he's talented and will have a role, but his size and durability are still a concern. Plus, the Bills gave a ton of red zone touches and goal-line carries to the other running backs last year, and that role will be beautifully filled by rookie Zack Moss.
Ryan Hester
I agree with those who identified Andrews here. My personal style is to wait on tight ends due to positional scarcity (especially in leagues where only one can be started) and positional scoring volatility. But if not waiting on tight end, I'd rather take the top tier players (Travis Kelce and George Kittle this season). Historically, mid-tier tight-end production can be had with at least one player drafted outside the top-10 at the position.
Chad Parsons
I can be convinced of the pro argument for many in this round, but Chris Carson stands out as a player to avoid. Even as my RB2/3 in a typical build, I would be seeking either more upside or stability with the pick. Carson has not been much of a receiving threat and is working through a hip injury recovery if he is to be ready for Week 1. I view Rashaad Penny has a higher-end talent, but his own injury recovery is likely to keep him from substantial work until midseason or so. Carlos Hyde is a significant veteran signing to siphon work as well - or the team hedging if Carson is not ready to go for the start of the season.
Jeff Pasquino
Chad, glad to have the counter-argument to Carson. When I'm looking for players to take early (Top 50-60 picks), I give more weight to a high floor vs. a high ceiling. Carson owns the Seattle backfield and is playing for an above-average offense, plus I do not see much of a push from Penny or anyone else for significant work.
Signing a solid backup (Hyde) speaks more to a lack of confidence in the rest of the depth chart than to Carson's injury, but it does provide insurance for both concerns. In a nutshell, it is a smart move by Seattle to sure up a potential weakness if Carson misses time for any reason.
In my view, the lead back in Seattle is a very solid and safe fantasy role, and it is clearly Carson's this year.
Dan Hindery
My least favorite player in round four is Mark Ingram. He only had 202 carries and 29 targets last season and was heavily reliant on touchdowns to score fantasy points. He is now a year older (31 in December) and has competition from a very talented rookie, J.K. Dobbins. Even if Ingram picks up close to where he left off last year to start the season, I would be shocked if he is still dominating backfield touches later in the season. At some point, Dobbins is likely to become the 1A. Always weight projected production in the fantasy playoffs more highly than early-season production. Using a 4th-rounder on a player who you might not even want in your lineup for the fantasy playoffs is a tough sell.
Jeff Pasquino
I get where Dan is coming from, but I never quite understand the dislike for a veteran who puts up solid numbers year after year with the logic that he is getting older. While Ingram isn't quite Frank Gore, the analogy is not far off. Ingram has been a Top 15 running back for five of the last six seasons, including a team change from the Saints to the Ravens. Baltimore led the league in rushing not just by a bit but by a monstrous margin, racking up over 200 yards a game while the next best team (49ers) was more than 60 yards behind the Ravens' 206 yards per game average.
While I understand and respect his points, Ingram is a veteran that knows the offense and that's key for a 2020 season where preseason will be next to nothing. The Ravens have depth and youth because they value the position and the productivity as their bread and butter on offense, and to keep a veteran like Ingram fresh. A likely Top 15 running back at the end of Round 4 on a team that will likely lead the league in rushing feels like a safe choice to me.
Dan Hindery
Jeff, I will push back on a couple of your points:
- The Ravens quarterbacks averaged 80 rushing yards per game. If you look at rushing yards from the running back position, the Ravens were barely above average.
- If history has taught us anything, it is that there is nothing safe about drafting 30- or 31-year-old running backs. You never know when that cliff is going to come but it does for every back. You have to factor age-related risk in, both in terms of decline and an increased likelihood of injury.
- Ingram was able to produce solid fantasy numbers in a committee with Alvin Kamara largely because the Saints pepper their running backs with targets. The Ravens running backs combined for 51 targets total last season. If Dobbins quickly forces an RBBC, Ingram is going to have a very hard time putting up good PPR numbers given his lack of passing game usage.
Phil Alexander
The last one of these guys I'm considering is Singletary. He got by on an unsustainable rate of long runs last year, and he projects as the third option at the goal-line in Buffalo. Everyone else drafted in this round has just as solid a floor and an appreciably higher ceiling.
Andy Hicks
I have to declare that I absolutely love Juju Smith-Schuster and had him on every one of my dynasty leagues. That said his 2019 season turned me right off.
Twelve catches for 109 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s a nice game for a receiver, but not a good result for the last five games of his career. The optimist will insist that Smith-Schuster was carrying an injury and had subpar quarterback play. Some of us think that the departure of Antonio Brown proved that Smith-Schuster is not an NFL number one receiver. Another concern is that Pittsburgh just keeps drafting receivers with high picks. Smith-Schuster himself was taken with the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft. James Washington the 60th pick in 2018, Diontae Johnson the 66th in 2019, and this year the Steelers went even higher with Chase Claypool and the 49th overall pick. In the final year of his rookie contract, Smith-Schuster may think he will be a Steeler for life, but Pittsburgh has shown they won’t be held hostage in contract negotiations. With the luxury of depth at the position, it would not surprise if JuJu leaves after this season and is underused this year.
Andrew Davenport
I immediately wanted to pick Singletary or Ingram, but after thinking about it a little bit I wouldn't blame someone for taking one of those guys in a situation where they need a running back. I'm not in love with either of them, but scarcity is a reasonable argument. Instead, I'll go with A.J. Brown. I spent a little time looking at his advanced metrics recently because I felt like I was biased against him. He has impressive numbers, and it made me re-think my position on him. But it didn't help me get over the combination of two things: where he's being drafted and the Titans' efficiency last year. He is the kind of player that I want to take as my WR2, or even WR3 (realizing this isn't very practical) to mitigate the risk. I'm not seeing much of a path to increased pass volume as nothing has changed in philosophy or personnel for Tennessee. So then it's a matter of what he can do with those targets. He can improve his 62% catch rate, but on the other hand, he had a ridiculous 16% touchdown rate on his opportunities. The Titans offense is in line for some efficiency regression, so even if I can project some increase in targets he still looks like he's being drafted near his ceiling. He's such an exciting player, but I can't get excited enough for the fourth round when there are so many receivers I'd rather have who are being drafted behind him.
Devin Knotts
I'm not convinced that Taylor will outright win the job over Marlon Mack and am avoiding all rookie running backs this season as they seem to be priced where they would be in a normal fantasy football season. With limited practices, no preseason OTA, rookie camp, mini-camp, and no preseason games, the amount of time that Taylor has to come in immediately and impress is limited. Combining that with the fumbling issues he had in college with 18 in 3 seasons leads me to believe that the Colts will slowly integrate the running back in and go with Marlon mack who is more than serviceable to start the year. Taking players that could win the job late in the year is a risky proposition this year with COVID surely to impact players across the league. With a fourth-round pick, I need players who can come in week one and be on my starting roster and I'll figure the rest out later in what surely will be a strange year.
Bob Henry
I will pick a player who I've really liked since he was drafted but haven't rostered in a single draft this summer - Cooper Kupp. Love the player, but I am just getting zero of him because I don't have him ranked/projected the same as his ADP. So, he's my least favorite of this group followed closely by Devin Singletary. Like the talent of both players, but I can't say I would take either of them this high and I don't trust the opportunities they have to match the draft cost to acquire either one.