Curtis Samuel Has Been A Tease
Eye rolls.
It's what I did every time a read a tweet or an article touting Curtis Samuel as the next big thing in fantasy football. Thanks to the number of times I saw buzz for Samuel, I strengthened my eye muscles, and now, I'm glasses-free.
Not really.
There's no doubt that Samuel is a talented football player, and the emphasis should be placed on "football player," as opposed to "wide receiver." Carolina has used Samuel similar to his tenure as an Ohio State Buckeye: An offensive skill athlete.
Jet sweeps, option pitches, screen passes, RPOs, crossing routes, and the occasional deep target were all installed to leverage Samuel's athletic ability. However, I wasn't seeing an elevation with his play that put him on track to become the next Randall Cobb, a player I compared to Samuel before the NFL Draft.
When I watched Samuel run hard-breaking routes with the Panthers, he wasn't executing at a high level. Forget the training camp buzz about getting open in the vertical game all summer and making incredible catches. There are practice squad receivers who do this every August.
If a receiver isn't consistent when it counts or versatile enough as an outside receiver to transcend the gadget label, his fantasy value becomes increasingly more dependent on surrounding talent--his teammates or sub-par competition.
Last year, Samuel was the No.36 receiver in PPR formats. His best games, by far, were his two against Tampa Bay, Arizona, Tennessee, Washington, and Seattle.
Here's where these teams ranked in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in 2019 (the higher the number, the worse the defense):
- Tampa Bay: 1st
- Seattle: 18th
- Arizona: 12th
- Washington: 11th
And Seattle gave up fewer fantasy points to wide receivers last year because its defense allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the opposing running backs.
Samuel averaged 10.73 fantasy points per game, but 50 percent of his fantasy points came during these 5 games and 68 percent of his production came in 7 games. In three-receiver formats, Samuel was 41st in weekly consistency of scoring in these formats.
- 6.25 percent of his games were elite WR1-caliber.
- 31.25 percent of his games were at least top-12 WR1-caliber.
- 31.25 percent of his games were at least WR2-caliber.
- 43.75 percent of his games were at least WR3-caliber
- 56.25 percent of his games weren't up to standard as a fantasy starter in three-receiver lineups.
In other words, he was 41st in making the cut as a startable receiver in 12-team formats. When he was on the field, John Ross was more consistent.
However, it was not enough to dissuade fantasy GMs from betting on Samuel once again. New quarterback, new offense, the skepticism that Robby Anderson would be a threat to Samuel's production all generated optimism.
Oops. Or, is it?
Samuel is currently the No.27 fantasy receiver in PPR formats after generating 19 receptions, 225 yards from scrimmage, and 4 touchdowns during the past 3 weeks. That's 47.7 percent of his yardage production and 100 percent of his touchdowns coming from 3 of 9 games. At this point, Samuel's 2020 consistency is even weaker than last year despite the higher overall ranking based on stronger totals.
Samuel is 37th in weekly consistency of scoring in three-receiver formats. His ranking is slightly higher, but his consistency profile is slightly lower than last year if basing the comparison on his start-ability.
- 25 percent of his games were elite WR1-caliber.
- 25 percent of his games were at least top-12 WR1-caliber.
- 37.5 percent of his games were at least WR2-caliber.
- 37.5 percent of his games were at least WR3-caliber.
- 62.5 percent of his games weren't up to standard as a fantasy starter in three-receiver leagues.
- Falcons - 3rd-most points allowed to receivers.
- Saints - 9th-most points allowed to receivers.
- Chiefs - 4th-least points allowed to receivers.
Video and Graphics Editing by Justin Johnson
Inquiries: Alex Hanowitz (hanowitz.alex@gmail.com)
The Downside of Samuel Based on the Film and Data
As much praise as Samuel gets as a runner who can make the Panthers' offense versatile, Samuel hasn't maximized his potential between the tackles. He's not identifying creases as consistently as he should, and it limits the potential for Carolina to use him in the backfield alongside Christian McCaffrey.
One of the plays above has McCaffrey motioning from the backfield and splitting wide while leaving Samuel as the single back. However, if Samuel's decision-making continues to make him a boom-bust producer between the tackles, the defense will continue to focus on McCaffrey as the priority, limiting the upside of Carolina's stud for chunk gains or easier red-zone looks as a runner and receiver.
Samuel's tape also has the same limited types of routes that he's run in this offense for years. Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore are better receivers with timing routes, perimeter routes, and hard-breaking routes over the middle.
While Samuel has clear assets as a receiver and runner, he's not far removed from a gadget player in role and ability. Both players are more explosive athletes and Moore is sturdier at the catch point and as a ball carrier.
Moore and Anderson still earned greater yardage production than Samuel in two of these three games where Samuel delivered as a fantasy commodity. The remaining schedule of opponents has two strong matchups, two mediocre matchups, and three bad matchups.
- Tampa Bay - 9th-fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Detroit - 12th-fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Minnesota - 2nd-most fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Denver - 13th-most fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Green Bay - 6th-fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Washington - 2nd-fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Based on this film, the data, and the schedule, there's reason to fear that this is another false positive for Samuel's long-term value. He's talented, but his skills are limited and his role could remain volatile.
The Upside of Samuel Based on the Film And Data
Good offenses have multiple mouths to feed. For the past two years, Cam Newton and Kyle Allen lacked the richness of surrounding talent to fully unlock Samuel schematically.
McCaffery is one of the best backs in football, but he doesn't stretch defenses enough as a receiver to counteract his ground skills that compress the opposition. Moore and Samuel have similar strengths as YAC-strong receivers, but Moore is stronger, faster, quicker, and has greater balance.
Moore also improved as a contested-catch option, and he executes flatter breaks with routes where Samuel has lapses of technique. Still, Moore and McCaffrey weren't enough to create massive space in the middle of the field on as consistent of a basis as they can with Anderson added to the mix.
Anderson and Moore can stretch at different spots and collectively create greater stresses on the back end of the secondary. Combine this with McCaffrey's work out of the backfield, and it loosens up the middle of the field behind linebackers for Samuel to roam.
This zone of the field is also in Teddy Bridgewater's wheelhouse. And as you can see from the film—as well as the video analysis performed on Bridgewater last month projecting him as a potential riser and top-12 fantasy producer down the stretch (currently 10th)—Samuel is the guy Bridgewater has come to trust for the dirty work of working open on scramble drills and winning targets that can't be placed in a perfect spot.
Although Samuel may not be a consistent runner between the tackles, because he doesn't attack the smaller creases that are viable and would lead to big plays that further stress the defense inside, he can weave through a lot of traffic and tighter lanes in the second and third level if the initial crease at the line of scrimmage is large enough.
It makes him just good enough that Carolina will continue to use him as a runner and likely in the red zone on runs inside and outside.
And because Samuel operates so much in the range of the field that we often see with tight ends, it's worth noting that the remaining schedule of defenses that is stingy against receivers is more generous against tight ends. Five of these six teams are middle-of-the-road units in this area, and Washington is the six-most generous to tight ends.
The Verdict: Samuel Is a Viable Fantasy WR3 This Year, But Don't Go Overboard
Samuel has been the No.9 fantasy receiver during the past three weeks. Don't count on him sustaining this production for the fantasy stretch run. However, Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota have been generous enough to receivers who work Samuel's territory that Samuel is worth a match-up start during those weeks if you use three or four receivers.
If your league starts two receivers, Samuel is not a primetime option despite the receiver uptick in the box score. In other words, this isn't the breakout.
Still, it's better than past summers filled with eye rolls when half the fantasy media can't quit him despite production that hasn't proven loyalty.
