Welcome to Week 17 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate A.J. Dillon's future, potential regression-proof canddiates for 2021, players we expect to rebound next year, and difficult keeper choices.
Matt Waldman: Pick a top starter from 2020 (QB1, RB1, WR1, or top-five TE) that you'd bet against regressing in 2021.
Adam Harstad: Hi! Nothing to see here, just the guy who writes our weekly Regression to the Mean column popping in to remind everyone that no one is actually regression-proof.
Waldman: Now that I've successfully tweaked Harstad for the week, we'll go for entertainment value over scientific value. That's the "in" thing to do, right?
Sean Settle: It is finally time to realize the hype for T.J. Hockenson is real. There may be some questions about what happens if Matthew Stafford is no longer the quarterback or how many targets he loses with a healthy Kenny Golladay, but he proved to be a top-five tight end this season (No.4 via Yahoo standard scoring).
He finished the year with 98 targets, trailing only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Logan Thomas. With more time, he will become more of a weapon in the red zone and if this team does nothing to fix their defense, they will constantly be in negative game script and have to throw the ball.
Hockenson is going to be here to stay and could easily be the third tight end off the draft board next year behind Kelce and Kittle. There should be no regression next year just more improvement for Hockenson.
Dan Hindery: One of the interesting decision points for next season’s drafts is going to be how early to draft a quarterback. In 2020, the optimal decision was waiting until the middle rounds for Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers, who finished QB1 and QB4, respectively. The relative depth and seeing a mid-round quarterback emerge as the overall QB1 for the third-straight season (Allen in 2020, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Patrick Mahomes II in 2018) are likely to push the top quarterbacks down boards a little bit in 2021.
There is some benefit to locking in a player who is as close to a sure thing as we have in fantasy right now, however, instead of waiting and hoping to hit a home run at the position. That guy is Patrick Mahomes II and we may be able to get him in the fourth round next year.
Perhaps even later in leagues where most drafters prefer to wait at the position. While his QB3 finish in 2020 was not a league-winner, it was still another extremely impressive season and added even more certainty when it comes to projecting Mahomes forward.
Unlike some of the other top quarterbacks who have had some down years or only a one or two-year sample size of fantasy success, Mahomes has strung together three straight elite seasons and has never been anything short of spectacular at any point in time. For his career, he is averaging 308 passing yards and over 2.5 touchdowns per game. He is as “regression proof” as they come in terms of fantasy stardom.