1st-Round Busts to Avoid

The Footballguys staff discusses potential first-round busts

"You can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it."

Ancient Fantasy Proverb

If you doubt this saying, you probably didn't select David Johnson in the first round last year. Or Todd Gurley. Or James Conner. Or Odell Beckham Jr.

While it's always possible to recover, taking a bust in Round 1 can make it extremely difficult to win your league. We want your path to be as easy as possible. So, in an effort to help avoid these season-derailing players in 2020, we asked the Footballguys staff to try to identify potential busts in your upcoming draft.

Jason Wood

History tells us a good chunk of the consensus Top 12 will bust, and this year the COVID-19 pandemic will add volatility as players are likely to miss time (or key supporting players such as starting offensive linemen) not only because of the normal litany of injuries but now because of positive Covid-19 diagnoses.

But since we cannot predict injuries or viral infections, I think there are a few players on this list that have circumstances worth worrying about. Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon want new contracts and are talking good games right now vis-a-vis a willingness to hold out. The new CBA makes holding out a riskier proposition, but not an impossibility. Cook's injury history is beyond alarming, having had three major knee injuries in his life already, so he's an easy fade at his current price. Multiple knee injuries combined with an unhappy contract status in the pandemic era give Cook too many ways to underperform. Mixon is less concerning, although I do find myself passing on him in the first round without abandon.

Matt Waldman

I like the Cook and Mixon calls by Jason. I will go with Julio Jones.

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