FBG Predicts: The AFC West

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

Since everyone is sitting around waiting for camps to start, we decided to ask the Footballguys staff to offer up some predictions for each division. We asked staff members to predict the order of finish, if the division was good enough to get multiple playoff teams, and if there was a team in each division bad enough to contend for the 1.01 pick in the 2021 Draft.

Today, we'll look at the AFC West and compare our staff predictions to win totals from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Find links to other divisions here.

It's the Chiefs and then a scramble to sort out the rest of this division.

Jeff Pasquino

Interesting to see how everyone picked this division. It was one of the most competitive divisions last year, and I don't see that changing. The Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to win the AFC West again, and that makes a ton of sense given that they are Super Bowl champions and have most of their team returning.

Is this division good enough to get two playoff teams? Three?

The Short Answer

While a few could see the Broncos or Raiders grabbing a Wild Card spot, the most common answer here is no.

Chad Parsons

In the perfect storms, the Raiders or Broncos could make the playoffs, but I am notably skeptical of Drew Lock as the point man for a huge rise for the Denver offense. On the flip side, I am bullish on Derek Carr, with improved weapons, to take a step towards the playoffs even if they don't ultimately challenge the Chiefs for the divisional crown.

Ryan Hester

With the addition of a third wild card spot in each conference, the second-place finisher here could sneak in, but this division is Kansas City and everyone else. The non-Chiefs teams are too flawed to predict three teams getting in.

Jordan McNamara

I'm confident in Kansas City winning the division. Outside of Kansas City, there is a lot of uncertainty. I could see Las Vegas making the playoffs, as Jon Gruden has outperformed expectations to date. Likewise, if Drew Lock is good, Denver can compete in the AFC that has a lot of question marks.

Jeff Haseley

I think two teams are a strong possibility, but three seems to be too much, especially with several teams likely in the running in other divisions. The Chiefs are the class of the AFC West and should win the division outright. Next in line, I see a battle with Denver and Las Vegas and it may all rest on the arm of Drew Lock. The Broncos have built a strong offense of weapons and if Lock takes a big step forward this year, so will the team. Las Vegas has a chance to reach the postseason thanks to strength and youth at key positions. The Raiders seem to be getting more talented personnel each year. Perhaps 2020 is their arrival year? They are close, but I don't see them earning a playoff berth just yet.

Andy Hicks

I think the Broncos and Raiders will be at least 8-8. I feel the opposite of Chad and am bullish on Drew Lock and skeptical of Derek Carr. It’s easy to be wary of Lock’s inexperience, but if we take a glass half full approach and the Broncos have done nothing but help him succeed in the offseason. Upgrades everywhere on offense and no challenge to playing time. He looked like a franchise quarterback in waiting. As for Carr, the Raiders definitely invested in upgrading the offense as well, but some don’t seem a fit for his skill set.

Phil Alexander

I don't see a second playoff team coming out of this division behind the Chiefs. The Chargers should be kicking themselves for not going harder after Cam Newton.

Jeff Pasquino

The most interesting part of the division is the middle - where the Raiders and Broncos should vie for second place and a possible Wild Card spot. The new home in Las Vegas should boost the energy level for the Raiders, and a trip to Sin City could be a significant home-field advantage for teams flying in for the weekend. Derek Carr was quietly a solid starter last season, and the Raiders continue to get better. I see them as the better bet for second place ahead of the Broncos, who are still hoping that Drew Lock can emerge as their franchise starter. Denver did add Melvin Gordon to boost their backfield, but the schedule will be tough and I like Las Vegas a little more.

Jason Wood

I don't see anyone outside of the Chiefs as a lock for the playoffs, but the AFC wild card is hardly set in stone. Either the Broncos or the Raiders could have everything go right, but neither are smart bets. The Chiefs deservedly enter the season as a Super Bowl favorite, although the defense has to resemble the unit we saw in the last few games versus what we saw in September and October. The Raiders are a trendy pick because of the Las Vegas move, but they're a flawed team with questionable coaching and poor roster construction. Marcus Mariota couldn't beat out Ryan Tannehill, yet he's going to be the salve for an ailing offense led by Derek Carr?

Bob Henry

If there is a division that only gets one team into the playoffs in the AFC, this is my pick. Kansas City is heads and shoulders above the others, and with no real offseason, I don't see that changing. That said, I really like the Broncos defense, and they could very well be the best in this group with Bradley Chubb's return and the addition of DE Jurrell Casey and CB A.J. Bouye. If Drew Lock can leverage the influx of talent at the skill positions, the Broncos could definitely make a push for the playoffs. The Raiders added more firepower, but their defense still looks like it's a few players away and I just don't have any trust or faith in Anthony Lynn's ability to lead the Chargers anywhere this year with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. The defense will keep them in games, but Taylor wasn't very good the last time he was a starter, and Justin Herbert isn't ready either.

Sigmund Bloom

If there's a second playoff team from this division, the favorite should be the Broncos, with a Vic Fangio defense and more weapons for Drew Lock, but they're far from a sure thing. Let's watch asthmatic Von Miller's condition after contracting coronavirus this offseason. The Chargers have a good defense and will likely take care of the ball and rely on the running game in a conservative offense, so it's not too much of a stretch to see them eking out 9 or 10 wins and getting in. This is still the most likely division to only send through the division winner, and there will at least be one of those.

Justin Howe

I highly doubt it. This division boasts the league's best quarterback by a country mile, but probably not another one in the top 25. There's promise for Drew Lock, though he's got quite a hill to climb as a second-round pick. He started 5 games as a rookie, and apart from one big performance against Houston, he posted a sickly 5.5 yards per attempt and threw just 4 touchdowns. At least the Broncos made some extremely savvy defensive moves to back him up. The Raiders have shown real progress in building personnel, but it's coming at a sllllooowwwww pace and I still don't see a whole, playoff-level defense here. The pass rush lacks juice and the secondary hinges on several unknowns. Most importantly, of course, they still have an utter black hole at quarterback, where neither Derek Carr nor Marcus Mariota is an NFL starter-caliber player. The Chargers look like a lock to stay buried at the bottom. They finished 5-11 last year with Philip Rivers still playing okay, and he'll now be replaced by a journeyman backup and an ultra-raw rookie. I just don't see anything redemptive there.

Andrew Davenport

I don't think this division is going to be getting anyone other than the Chiefs into the playoffs. I do like the Raiders to take another step forward and I could see them squeaking in, but several guys are on the same page as I am about their defense not quite being there yet. Also, when I look at their schedule I agree with Sigmund about their opening stretch of games, so while they may be a better team, they might struggle for periods and this should keep them from making the postseason. The Broncos are everyone's darling for fantasy purposes this summer, but if I had a dollar for every quarterback that looked good before defensive coordinators figured him out I'd be a rich man. Drew Lock has weapons and he did some good things in his limited starts, but I'm anything but sold on him as the answer. Their defense looks like it's going to be tough, but I can't pick them to win more than 6-8 games. Los Angeles appears to be the weak point to me. The West isn't going to have a "bad" team in the division, but if one team can do it the Chargers have that look. Tyrod Taylor is a decent quarterback, and their opening schedule is reasonable, but in this division, the combination of Taylor and Herbert is going to struggle to win games. If I knew they'd stick with Taylor all year I might move them up a few wins, but I think eventually they go to Herbert and my opinion of him is poor, to put it politely. This division is going to be a fistfight, but I see only the Chiefs getting in at the end of the year.

Is there a team in this division that will challenge for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft?

The Short Answer

Even though most people have the Chargers in AFC West cellar, most believe they'll be far too good to grab the 1.01 selection.

Chad Parsons

The Chargers have quality weapons, but the critical mass is quarterback. The last time Tyrod Taylor had a decent sample size, he was horrific with Cleveland. The other option is Justin Herbert. I see quarterback holding back the offense and team enough to lock in 10+ losses this year.

Ryan Hester

No. The non-Kansas City teams have little shot at the playoffs, but none are as bad as some of the worst teams in the NFL.

Jordan McNamara

Denver and the Chargers could both compete for the top pick. Based on his draft pedigree, it is more likely than not Drew Lock is not the answer at quarterback in Denver, in which case, Denver could struggle. I think the Chargers are a talented roster, but their quarterback situation is uncertain, especially without an offseason program to develop top-10 pick Justin Herbert. If things go poorly at the quarterback position, a top 5 pick with number 1 overall is in the range of outcomes for both Denver and LA.

Jeff Haseley

Perhaps. And the answer here is the Los Angeles Chargers. I don't see Anthony Lynn as a bright, offensive innovator so the coaching factor improving the team doesn't seem to be in the cards. The Chargers finished 5-11 last year with Philip Rivers. How will they do without him? One could argue that they finish with a worse record. Is Tyrod Taylor a good NFL quarterback? He may have been a decent one in the past, but now? That's debatable. I don't see Justin Herbert being ready to handle the team on his own yet, especially not in a COVID unfriendly season. It would not be a surprise to see the Chargers struggle this year. Ultimately, their defense may keep them out of the No. 1 pick waters, but I don't see their offense as much of a threat.

Andy Hicks

The Chargers season could fall away quickly. The offense is transitioning from the key departures of Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon and while I think Anthony Lynn is a good coach, he will need to be to make this team competitive.

Phil Alexander

Probably not. The Raiders have the league's best offensive line while both the Chargers and Broncos have top-tier defenses. Those strengths should keep each team out of contention for the worst record in the league.

Jeff Pasquino

After the Chiefs taking the top spot, the other consensus seems to have the Chargers at the bottom of the division, and I tend to agree with that. The deck looks stacked against them with a new quarterback and a second-rate spot in their "home market", as the Los Angeles area seems to not care about this team. Philip Rivers never committed to the area (his family stayed in San Diego) and now with Rivers gone, the Chargers could even contend for a top draft pick next season.

Jason Wood

Absolutely. I wouldn't be surprised if Denver, Las Vegas, or Los Angeles were in the hunt for the first choice. The Chargers, in particular, should struggle with a transitional quarterback, a lame-duck head coach, and a raw, developmental rookie champing at the bit.

Jeff Pasquino

I'd take the other side of the Raiders being the first choice in the NFL Draft next year. Las Vegas win total numbers tend to support that argument as well.

While anything could happen, the first season in Las Vegas should be a strong one for the Raiders. Playoffs may be a bit of a stretch, but I'd say that the odds of a postseason berth are much higher than picking first next April.

Maurile Tremblay

Before the 2020 draft, I thought there were two strategies the Chargers could pursue in order to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes in 2021. First, they could have traded this year's #6 pick in order to acquire enough future draft capital to move to the top of next year's draft. Or second, they could draft Justin Herbert and start him from day one, letting their resulting W-L record do the rest.

The second option is still in play.

Bob Henry

The Chargers could be in that mix if they get off to a slow start and that's where the impact of COVID could accelerate a team's demise.

Sigmund Bloom

The Raiders are probably too competitive to be picking #1 overall, although if they make an in-season quarterback change during the Week 6 bye after a brutal Week 2-5 run of NO-NE-BUF-KC, then we could see the season swirl down the drain.

Justin Howe

I don't know if anyone here looks bad on a 3-13 type of level. The Broncos and Chargers boast strong enough defenses to keep them afloat, with floors around five or six wins. And the Raiders have assembled a plucky enough roster under Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden; I'm sure they'll (slightly) overachieve again. Still, everyone beyond Kansas City is at least delicate enough that their seasons could fall apart at the seams. It would most likely be the Chargers, who are clearly between quarterbacks - and I don't think very highly of either.

Andrew Davenport

I don't think so. The Chargers are really my only candidate, and I believe in their defense enough that I think they'd really have to get hit hard with injuries to be bad enough to get the top pick. The division behind the Chiefs is going to be mediocre, but shouldn't have a team get the first selection in the draft.