Fantasy Football Values Or Value Traps?

Phil Alexander makes the final call on four players our staff doesn't see eye to eye on.

One of the best things about Footballguys is the sheer number of analysts we have on staff. With so many different and well-formed opinions to sift through, our subscribers can always get a 360-degree view of player analysis, strategies, rankings, reactions to breaking news, and everything else that goes along with winning at fantasy football.

Each summer, our staff articles on Undervalued and Overvalued players are among the most heavily viewed on the site. But what should you do when the competing opinions of our analysts inevitably land a player on both lists?

Ideally, you want to take in all the information you can and come to a decision on your own after considering all sides of the argument. You may even do some statistical research to break the tie. Unfortunately, not everyone has the time to dig deeper.

The goal of this article is to help both types of fantasy gamers. If you can’t get enough player analysis, there is plenty here for you. And if you want someone to break the tie on the players our staff disagrees on, you should read on as well.

Are the following players overvalued or undervalued? Let’s decide once and for all.

*The ADPs shown below are from Fantasy Football Calculator’s PPR data. It may not be the most accurate due to the inclusion of mock drafts, but their graphs make it easy to visualize how ADP values have changed since our Overvalued/Undervalued articles published in June.

Deshaun Watson

ADP

Watson’s ADP has remained steady over the last month. He is routinely drafted at QB6.

The Verdict

Watson is a moderate VALUE. Since entering the NFL in 2017, he has ranked first, fifth, and fifth in quarterback fantasy points per game, respectively. The obvious knock on him this year is the loss of Hall of Fame level wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins.

While Hopkins’ absence is less than ideal, it’s not as though the Texans are devoid of wide receiver talent. Will Fuller V has maximized the value of his targets since entering the league. Brandin Cooks has played on four teams since 2016, making his production at each stop all the more impressive. Randall Cobb will somehow only be 30-years-old when the season starts and is coming off a bounce-back year in which he averaged a career-high 15.1 yards per reception. And should any of that injury-prone trio fail to make it through the season, Houston has depth on the perimeter (Kenny Stills) and in the slot (Keke Coutee), as well as out of the backfield (David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr).

Any discussion on Watson’s fantasy value is incomplete without mentioning his rushing ability. Over the last three seasons, Watson ranks third amongst quarterbacks in total rushing fantasy points despite missing nine games as a rookie. In the same timeframe, Watson is one of 10 qualifying quarterbacks to generate at least 20% of his fantasy points via rushing production. Watson leads that cohort in total passing fantasy points by a chasmic 25% margin over the next closest player (Cam Newton). His rushing numbers are what we want in fantasy -- delicious gravy on an already satisfying cut of meat.

It would also be reasonable to expect more pass attempts for Watson in 2020. The Texans went 10-6 despite an average scoring margin of -1.3 last season. Natural regression should mean more negative scripts for Houston this season on its own. Factor in the loss of Hopkins’ all-world talent and we should see Watson forced to throw more than the 33 times per game we saw in 2019.

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