Sunday Morning Update
On Friday morning, we talked about four moving pieces we would be watching. Let’s start with those because we have already received some big answers that will have a big impact on the slate.
Michael Thomas out
One piece we were watching was Michael Thomas. As of Friday morning he was projected to be one of the most popular wide receivers but he had not practiced all week. We now know why. Thomas’ ankle injury is so serious that he is not only out this weekend, but out for the regular season. We also learned that it would be Drew Brees and not Taysom Hill at the helm for the Saints. These two items have changed the complexion of the slate. Alvin Kamara is now expected to be the chalkiest play on the entire slate. Kamara was listed as a top play before this news and he is an even stronger option now. However, we do want to be aware that if we are playing Kamara and a couple other very popular plays, we want to try to take some shots at less popular players in a couple other spots.
Thomas’ absence and the return of Brees also answered another big question we had, which was whether there would be any obvious value plays on the slate. Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) and Tre’Quan Smith (($5,000)both look like very strong bargains with Brees in the lineup and Thomas sidelined. Sanders is the safer play. Smith is riskier but may have slightly more big-play upside.
Ravens WRs return
We were also watching to see if the Ravens three wide receivers who were sidelined due to close contact with a coach who tested positive for COVID-19 would be cleared in time to play. They have been cleared, which helps solidify Lamar Jackson as the safest quarterback to play this week.
The tougher question is whether the days away from practice will lead to Marquise Brown ($6,000) potentially seeing a few less targets than normal. Brown was a risky play to start with and the missed practices may lower his floor slightly more. Brown is a mediocre play as a one off but if you are playing Lamar Jackson at quarterback (as many will be), rolling the dice on Brown makes a lot more sense. If he catches one long bomb, not only does that bring him close to hitting value but it also greatly increases the chances that Jackson gets there as well.
A bit more clarity in Miami: Sunday Inactive Update
WR Isaiah Ford
WR Mack Hollins
TE Adam Shaheen
Lynn Bowden Jr ($5,000) looks like the beest bet if you are going to take a chance on one of these guys. On a slate without a lot of value, Bowden is in the conversation with guys like Kendrick Bourne, Tre'Quan Smith, and Emmanuel Sanders as top salary savers. Maybe we should be thinking about the Patriots Defense ($4,100) a bit more as well because that group of options looks pretty rough.
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