Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack. Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Identify the good chalk
Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.
The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.
The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.
Week 6 Review
The Houston-Tennessee game was one of the most heavily stacked of the week. Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller stacks paid off when paired with Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.
Week 7 good chalk
DK Metcalf He will be good chalk most weeks.
DeAndre Hopkins Great play if you can afford him.
Kareem Hunt Will see a lot of touches.
Chris Carson Maybe the most bang-for-the-buck in the night game.
Kyler Murray Game-stacking the night game will be popular for good reason.
2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.
We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.
The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.
Week 6 Review
It should never be a surprise when Julio Jones has a big week but his injury status kept him somewhat under the radar and kept his popularity relatively low. Ronald Jones II continues to go overlooked when you compare his popularity to his production and price.
Week 7 Under the Radar
Josh Allen (3%) Put up over 28 points against these same Jets in Week 1.
James Conner (6%) The first impression of Conner from Week 1 seems to have overshadowed the fact he has had 100+ yards and a touchdown in 3-of-4 games since.
Joe Mixon (4%) Foot injury adds uncertainty but big upside here. Pair of huge games against the Browns late in 2019.
Jamison Crowder (1%) Monitor his injury status. If healthy, interesting play. He had 7-115-1 in previous matchup against Bills and should have positive game script.
3. Show up to the party early
The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.
Week 6 Review
D’Andre Swift was the quintessential “show up early” guy last week. At a very low price and low rostered percentage, he went off for 25.8 points, second-highest on the slate at running back. We might need a new category for someone like Justin Jefferson, who was last week’s WR1. If you played him last week, you were not exactly early to the party. To carry the analogy further, I guess we could say you were sharp enough to realize that the party was not going to end early and decide to keep the party going. There was a similar dynamic Odell Beckham’s rookie year where it took a while for his price and popularity to catch up with what he was doing on the field because it felt fluky for a while. Can Jefferson keep it going and have a Beckham-like rookie season? Chase Claypool was one yard away from another monster game and is another “keep the party going” candidate this season.
Week 7 Breakout Targets
Tee Higgins Higgins has already broken out to some extent (WR30 through six weeks) but it is possible he has another level to reach. His quarterback, Joe Burrow, has been good to start the year but hasn’t shown slate-winning upside. Yet.
Justin Herbert Like Burrow, Herbert has been good as a rookie. Can he match some of the other elite quarterbacks on this slate?
JaMycal Hasty Has a tough matchup and will be part of a timeshare but we have seen relatively obscure young backs explode in Kyle Shanahan’s system.
La’Mical Perine It is hard to invest a roster spot in a Jets player but at a sub-5K salary, the rookie running back would not need to have a monster game to be a strong value play.
Chase Claypool He has already broken out but we are still projecting him at just 4% rostered percentage. Stay at the party?
4. Stack to win
Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.
The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Week 6 Review
Deshaun Watson to Brandin Cooks and/or Will Fuller makes an appearance for the second week in a row in the review section. This offense is rounding into shape post-Bill O’Brien
Week 7 top stacks
Matt Ryan to Julio Jones and/or Calvin Ridley
Justin Herbert to Mike Williams
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Atlanta ($7,800 — 4%)
When everyone is healthy, the Falcons have the NFL’s best 1-2 punch at wide receiver and this offense is very hard to defend. In the three games this season that Julio Jones has played at least 25% of the snaps, Matt Ryan is averaging 365 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns. In a similar spot last week, Ryan exploded for 371 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against the Vikings.
The Lions-Falcons matchup has obvious shootout potential. The game total of 55 is just one lower than the Seahawks-Cardinals game. Despite that fact, the projected ownership of many of the key players in this game (especially on the Atlanta side) is only a fraction of what we are projecting for the stars in the night game. We are not getting lower ownership targeting this game heavily, we are also getting slight price breaks compared to the stars in other contests.
Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,400 — 12%)
Murray will be relatively popular but quarterback chalk never reaches numbers anywhere near what we see from the chalkiest players at other positions. While Murray is not cheap, he is not all that much more expensive than the other options at the position because FanDuel prices most of the starters within a fairly narrow range. To date, Murray’s worst fantasy performance this season was 23.1 points. His floor has been incredibly high because of his dual-threat abilities. Murray has put up at least 7.8 FanDuel points per game as a runner in every game (with a high of 19.7 rushing points in Week 2). Murray is averaging 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game and when he scores with his legs is a virtual lock to hit 2.5X fantasy value. He is also averaging 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and has shown he has solid fantasy upside in that aspect of his game as well.
The matchup is fantastic for Murray. The Seahawks are giving up the most total yards (471 per game) and passing yards (370 per game) in the NFL. The Seahawks do not have any dangerous pass rushers and are shaky in the secondary, which is a brutal combination. They also have an elite offense, which means we have major shootout potential.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
Matthew Stafford | Atlanta | $7,300 | 14% | In a great spot again and the salary savings help roster construction |
Deshaun Watson | Green Bay | $8,000 | 11% | Watson has been on fire. Real shootout potential in this matchup. |
Patrick Mahomes II | Denver | $9,000 | 5% | Always has slate-breaking potential but can Denver's O keep up? |
Josh Allen | NY Jets | $8,800 | 3% | Will be much less popular than other QBs in this price range. Big upside. |
Justin Herbert | Jacksonville | $7,500 | 9% | Dual-threat ability and lots of weapons against a bad Jacksonville defense. |
Joe Burrow | Cleveland | $7,100 | 3% | Very cheap and fared well against the Browns in previous matchup |
Russell Wilson | Arizona | $8,700 | 8% | Has put up huge numbers when opposing offense forces aggressive play-calling |
Running Back
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland ($7,100 — 30%)
It is hard to ignore Hunt in this spot. He is priced as the RB11, which is too low given his workhorse role in this offense since the absence of Nick Chubb. Part of the excitement about Chubb this week stems from the fact that in his two games since taking over the lead role, this is his first good matchup. He has had to face two of the best run defenses in the NFL with Indianapolis in Week 5 and Pittsburgh in Week 6. The lack of a huge fantasy game (understandable given the defenses faced) has kept Hunt’s salary relatively low. The case for Hunt this week is pretty straight-forward —The Browns lead the NFL in rushing (169.5 yards per game) and the Bengals have given up the 6th-most rushing yards in the NFL (142.3 yards per game).
The Bengals run defense is an interesting part of this equation and the analysis is not as cut and dry as the public might think. Since getting demolished in prime time in Week 2, the Bengals have held Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, and Miles Sanders in check and have been a middle of the pack defense overall against opposing running backs. The rub is that Week 2 demolishing came at the hands of the Browns when Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 234 total yards and 4 touchdowns. Hunt produced over 100 yards and scored twice despite playing just 34% of the snaps. He is likely to play at least twice as many this weekend.
JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco ($4,600 —0.4%)
Let’s start with some context — The chalkier plays listed below in the “Other Running Backs to Consider” section are better plays than Hasty. However, I do want to make the case for a couple guys who can give you major leverage on the field even if you just slide them into 5-to-10% of your lineups. Hasty is just $100 over the site minimum and his pricing is the biggest point in his favor. His price allows you to get to some of the elite quarterback and wide receiver game stacks (like Seattle at Arizona) and also helps you have a unique lineup overall even if you roster some of the chalkiest players on the slate.
For Hasty to “hit” at this price, you do not need a monster game. If he can get you 70 yards and a touchdown, you should feel pretty good about having rostered him. We have reason to believe he can get there. Kyle Shanahan has an eye for under-appreciated running back talents and has a long track record of turning those late-round or undrafted players into productive fantasy performers (Raheem Mostert, Alfred Morris, Arian Foster). Hasty may be his next find. He is a Matt Waldman favorite who plays faster than his 4.55-forty yard dash. With Mostert sidelined, eff Wilson banged up, and Jerick McKinnon arguably more suited to a change-of-pace role, we could see Hasty take on a bigger workload than expected on Sunday.
George Kittle on rookie RB JaMycal Hasty: "He reminded me of Matt Breida's first camp -- he made a play every day."
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 22, 2020
LaMical Perine, NY Jets ($4,800 — 2%)
With Le’Veon Bell traded, Perine is the back most likely to emerge as the go-to guy for the Jets. The 4th-round rookie played a career-high 58% of the snaps last week but was only given 10 opportunities (seven carries and three targets). Logical coaching would dictate that Perine gets almost twice as many opportunities this week. The Jets need to keep the ball away from Josh Allen and shorten the game. Buffalo just gave up 161 yards to Clyde Edwards-Helaire on Monday night. Perine should also be game script independent given that he was featured heavily as a pass catcher his final year at Florida. Kyle Crabbs of The Draft Network wrote of Perine: “He's got good hands! Really nice receiving threat, you don't expect it for his stature. Was worked at times out on the fringes of the offense and ran hook routes, slip screens back inside and was at times a schemed quick target on swing patterns out of the backfield as well. He should find reps on 3rd down easy to come by.”
In a lost season, it would make sense for Gase to see if Perine can be a building block for the future. We will see if Gase actually follows through on his stated intent to get the rookie more touches.
La’Mical Perine drop sends Jets' running back plan off script https://t.co/2ZuGAdBk87 via @nypostsports
— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) October 19, 2020
Other Running Backs to Consider
Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Denver | $7,000 | 17% | May go somewhat overlooked due to presence of Bell |
Chris Carson | Arizona | $7,600 | 17% | Contrarian way to get exposure to this game |
Kenyan Drake | Seattle | $6,000 | 15% | Coming off of big week and priced way down |
Justin Jackson | Jacksonville | $6,100 | 11% | If he is healthy, great price and incredible matchup |
Mike Davis | New Orleans | $7,700 | 25% | The receiving volume sets up well for the game script |
Antonio Gibson | Dallas | $5,700 | 4% | Still mired in a committee but the price and matchup make him intriguing |
D'Andre Swift | Atlanta | $6,100 | 15% | Rationale coaching would give Swift 20+ touches. But who knows with Patricia |
Alvin Kamara | Carolina | $9,300 | 15% | If you can afford him, clear top option on the slate |
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf, Seattle ($7,300 — 17%)
Until FanDuel drastically changes the way they price Metcalf, he will remain a weekly fixture at the top of our list every week. He is just too cheap at only $7,300. Metcalf enters this week as the WR5 in FanDuel scoring on the season and is the only player in the top five who has already had his bye. He is actually averaging more PPG than all of the guys ahead of him. Yet he is priced down as the WR11 at $1,700 discount compared to DeAndre Hopkins (who Metcalf is outscoring by 1.8 PPG). Metcalf’s consistency this season has been fantastic. He has at least 92 receiving yards in every game and has scored in 4-of-5 games. We have a likely shootout brewing against the Cardinals. An aggressive Russell Wilson should lead to another big game for Metcalf.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati ($5,600 — 3%)
You can make the case for any of Cincinnati’s starting wide receivers (A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd) here. Footballguys’ David Dodds projects Joe Burrow for 26 completions, 291 yards and 1.8 touchdowns against the Browns.275 of Burrow’s 313 passing yards last week went to the Bengals top three receivers. Those three each played at least 78% of the snaps last week. Those yards, receptions, and touchdowns are likely to go almost exclusively to the top three guys. Given their pricing, each is in play as a salary-saving WR3 option. Of the three, Green is probably the highest-variance option with the best chance to bust but also the best chance of having a breakout 100-yard, multi-touchdown game.
The season started out with Green seeing a lot of volume but not doing much with it. Green caught just 3-of-13 targets in the first matchup against Cleveland. He only got one foot in on a deep ball down the sideline and couldn’t come up with his end zone target. The worm seemed to turn for Green last week. He converted on 8-of-11 targets for 96 yards. Even more importantly, he came through in the clutch on a number of key third downs in the second half. The narrative seems to be that Week 6 was a blip on the radar for a washed former star. It is also possible that it just took Green some time to knock off the rust and Week 6 was him getting over the hump. Time will tell. For just $5,600, the recommendation here is to come in double or triple the field if you are multi-entering tournaments.
"I felt like the old A.J. again."@Bridgestone | #SeizeTheDEY pic.twitter.com/UvlV1aT1Sx
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 22, 2020
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona ($9,000 — 17%)
Hopkins is amongst the league leaders in all receiving categories and is the clear top option for Kyler Murray. He is averaging 10.2 targets, 7.8 receptions, and 100 receiving yards per game this season. Arizona is facing a Seattle defense that is giving up a ridiculous 370 passing yards per game against. The case for Hopkins is pretty obvious. The only question is whether you can fit in his salary, which is amongst the highest at any position on the slate.
If you play a Murray-Hopkins stack and run it back with one of the Seahawks stars, you should be aware that there will be a lot of the field rostering the same core player grouping as you. That does not make it a bad play but you will want to take a few more chances than you might otherwise with under the radar guys at other positions.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
Odell Beckham | Cincinnati | $6,700 | 6% | Big game that could have been even bigger last time he faced Cincinnati |
Robby Anderson | New Orleans | $6,400 | 11% | Leads the NFL in receiving yards but still priced way back in the pack |
Deebo Samuel | New England | $5,400 | 4% | Looks healthy and love the price. NE may focus on slowing Kittle |
Tee Higgins | Cleveland | $5,700 | 3% | At least one of Higgins, Boyd, or Green should have a strong game |
Terry McLaurin | Dallas | $7,100 | 6% | Amongst the league leaders in targets and easy matchup |
Keenan Allen | Jacksonville | $7,000 | 20% | Chalky but has a nice matchup if he is healthy |
Julio Jones | Detroit | $8,300 | 8% | Love Jones' upside at this projected roster % |
Calvin Ridley | Detroit | $8,400 | 6% | Ridley too is flying under the radar given his proven upside |
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit ($5,900 — Atlanta)
While you can make a case for Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, Hockenson stands out as the best sub-$6K tight end on the slate. Each of the these three tight ends have Top 7 positional matchups but Hockenson’s is the best. The Falcons have given up a whopping seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends and are allowing 17.6 FanDuel PPG to the position. This is a game with the second-highest total on the slate with real shootout potential. Hockenson is not seeing as much volume as we would have hoped (between four and seven targets every week) but he has found the end zone in back-to-back games. Given how many touchdowns Atlanta has allowed to the position, Hockenson has clear multi-touchdown upside in this spot. He is the clear go-to option for Stafford down around the goal line.
Three-straight end zone targets there for TJ Hockenson.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 18, 2020
1. Defended
2. knocked away by DET's fullback (seriously)
3. Touchdown
Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($7,900 — 16%)
Since 2016, Kelce is averaging 8.0 catches, 105.3 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game against the Broncos (18.0 FanDuel PPG). Given the strong value in the $6K and $7K range at running back and wide receiver, it is possible for fit Kelce in without sacrificing too much. He is a great play and it is worth coming in over the field here despite the fact that it becomes much harder to fit in guys like Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, and the like if you are paying up at tight end.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
Hunter Henry | Jacksonville | $5,800 | 19% | Solid floor but has not shown a lot of upside of late |
George Kittle | New England | $7,100 | 12% | Good price but worries that NE will bracket him in coverage |
Austin Hooper | Cincinnati | $5,400 | 14% | Getting a lot of targets of late but fantasy upside is questionable |
Logan Thomas | Dallas | $5,000 | 2% | Finally made good on his market share of targets with Haskins out of the lineup |
Defense
Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
New Orleans | Carolina | $4,000 | 5% | Home favorite with improving pass rush |
Washington | Dallas | $3,800 | 13% | Those Dallas tackles are going to struggle with Chase Young |
Dallas | Washington | $3,700 | 5% | Too cheap against a bad offense |
Kansas City | Denver | $4,600 | 16% | Playmaking defense may be able to pin ears back in second half |
Buffalo | NY Jets | $5,000 | 17% | Worth paying up for in this matchup |
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | $4,300 | 5% | Not the offense to target but Pittsburgh D makes big plays on weekly basis |