Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February

Quantifying long-term player values for dynasty leagues

With the 2019 season now officially wrapped up with the Chiefs Super Bowl win, we can fully focus our dynasty attention on 2020. January was a slow month for news but it is worth looking at playoff production as one small data point worth considering moving forward. We also had some draft news both in terms of players going back to school and some early talent evaluations from the Senior Bowl. We will touch on each of these topics below.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Rookie Picks

Pick
Pos
Player
College
Value
1.01
RB
D'Andre Swift
Georgia
30
1.02
WR
Jerry Jeudy
Alabama
26
1.03
WR
CeeDee Lamb
Oklahoma
24
1.04
RB
J.K. Dobbins
Ohio State
22
1.05
RB
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
LSU
20
1.06
RB
Jonathan Taylor
Wisconsin
18
1.07
RB
Cam Akers
Florida State
14
1.08
WR
Tee Higgins
Clemson
13
1.09
WR
Henry Ruggs
Alabama
12
1.10
WR
Laviska Shenault
Colorado
12
1.11
WR
Justin Jefferson
LSU
11
1.12
WR
Jalen Reagor
TCU
10
2.01
WR
K.J. Hamler
Penn State
9
2.02
RB
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Vanderbilt
9
2.03
RB
Zack Moss
Utah
9
2.04
QB
Joe Burrow
LSU
8
2.05
WR
Brandon Aiyuk
Arizona State
8
2.06
WR
Michael Pittman
USC
7
2.07
TE
Brycen Hopkins
Purdue
7
2.08
TE
Cole Kmet
Notre Dame
7
2.09
WR
Antonio Gandy-Golden
Liberty
6
2.10
WR
Bryan Edwards
South Carolina
6
2.11
WR
K.J. Hill
Ohio State
6
2.12
WR
Lynn Bowden
Kentucky
5
3.01-3.06
Early-Third-Round Pick
5
3.07-3.12
Late-Third-Round Pick
4
4.01-4.12
Fourth-Round Pick
3

Superflex Rookie Pick Values

Pick
Pos
Player
College
Value
1.01
QB
Joe Burrow
LSU
33
1.02
RB
D'Andre Swift
Georgia
30
1.03
WR
Jerry Jeudy
Alabama
26
1.04
WR
CeeDee Lamb
Oklahoma
24
1.05
QB
Tua Tagovailoa
Alabama
23
1.06
RB
J.K. Dobbins
Ohio State
22
1.07
RB
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
LSU
20
1.08
RB
Jonathan Taylor
Wisconsin
18
1.09
QB
Justin Herbert
Oregon
16
1.10
RB
Cam Akers
Florida State
14
1.11
WR
Tee Higgins
Clemson
13
1.12
WR
Henry Ruggs
Alabama
12
2.01
WR
Laviska Shenault
Colorado
11
2.02
WR
Justin Jefferson
LSU
11
2.03
QB
Jordan Love
Utah State
11
2.04
WR
Jalen Reagor
TCU
10
2.05
WR
K.J. Hamler
Penn State
9
2.06
RB
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Vanderbilt
9
2.07
QB
Jacob Eason
Washington
9
2.08
RB
Zack Moss
Utah
9
2.09
QB
Jake Fromm
Georgia
8
2.10
WR
Brandon Aiyuk
Arizona State
8
2.11
WR
Michael Pittman
USC
7
2.12
TE
Brycen Hopkins
Purdue
7
3.01-3.06
Early-Third-Round Pick
6
3.07-3.12
Late-Third-Round Pick
5
4.01-4.12
Fourth-Round Pick
4

As noted last month, the pick values should not be tied too tightly to the names yet. We will go into more depth on putting together a rookie draft board next month. For now, having some names next to the picks is mainly to provide context when you are thinking about trading your pick (or trading for another pick). The above is the order I would personally draft the rookies in if my rookie draft started today. Fortunately, that is not the case and we can adjust along the way throughout the rest of the draft process.

News and Notes

-Top running back prospects Travis Etienne and Najee Harris returned to school to play out their senior seasons. Both had a good chance to go in the second round of the NFL Draft this April, which would have made them hot dynasty commodities. Not great news if you are sitting on a mid-late first-round pick because the odds increase that none of the top tier of backs will make it to your pick.

-The Senior Bowl was a bit lackluster in terms of top dynasty prospects this year. As of now, it looks like the first round of dynasty rookie drafts could be all underclassmen. Plus, many of the top senior skill position players (Joe Burrow, Zach Moss, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Brandon Aiyuk, and Bryan Edwards) did not participate.

-Despite not having the biggest skill position stars in attendance, the Senior Bowl still featured quite a few very intriguing skill position players with dynasty upside. Wide receivers Michael Pittman, Van Jefferson, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Denzel Mims, and K.J. Hill were amongst the players who generated the most positive reviews from the draft gurus in attendance. These are guys who probably aren’t going to go until the late-2nd or even third round of the NFL Draft but who still possess major fantasy upside. Not all of them will hit but it is almost a guarantee that at least a couple of them will. We’ve seen it in recent years with guys like Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Terry McLaurin and others who were drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft (and most rookie drafts) but quickly emerged as prime dynasty assets. This 2020 rookie class is incredibly deep at wide receiver, which is why those second and third-round rookie picks have felt like such wise investments.

-Aside from the strong wide receiver performances, the other big storyline from the Senior Bowl was at quarterback. Both Justin Herbert and Jordan Love seemed to do enough to improve their draft stock. At this point, it would be a surprise if Herbert makes it out of the top six or seven picks. His physical skills and college production compare favorably to Daniel Jones and Josh Allen, who went 6th and 7th overall, respectively, in the last two drafts. Love is also a tools prospect who could be an attractive option for QB-needy NFL teams in the top half of the first round. Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm also have a chance to emerge as first-rounders in the months to come. Add it all up and it looks like a draft where we should have five first-round quarterbacks, with at least four of them going off the board early. For Superflex leagues, this further adds to the depth of the class.

Rookie Spotlight: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

For each of the next few months, we will highlight one rookie who maybe deserves a bit more buzz. LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will lead us off. Edwards-Helaire seemingly came out of nowhere to play a huge role on one of the best college football offenses of all time. He led the SEC with 1,867 yards from scrimmage, averaging 6.6 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per reception. It is the receiving production that really stands out. Edwards-Helaire had 55 receptions in 2019. Over the last 10 years, no SEC running back even came close to matching that figure. The closest was Alvin Kamara in 2016 (40 receptions).

Edwards-Helaire was a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Bruce Feldman of The Athletic did a great piece entitled Scouting LSU: What coaches who faced the Tigers say about the national championship finalists. The consensus from SEC coaches was that, aside from Joe Burrow, Edwards-Helaire was the LSU player who caused the most issues. As one of SEC defensive coach put it, “No. 22 (Edwards-Helaire), that damn running back does a hell of a job. If you don’t stop him, you don’t have a shot. I’d put him against any other SEC back. He makes two or three guys miss from Alabama and got the first down. Tough, hard runner. He almost always is making the first guy miss. He’ll run over you, too. He’s a real key to that deal. To us, he’s the real headache. They hit him out of the backfield. He runs corner routes for touchdowns.”

There are a lot of similarities in terms of skillset between Austin Ekeler and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Like Ekeler (RB4 in 2019), Edwards-Helaire has huge upside in PPR leagues.

A quick peek at 2021

At some point soon, we will start having some more specific trade values listed for 2021 rookie picks. These picks are going to start changing hands more regularly as we start doing startup drafts and while maneuvering up and down the board during 2020 rookie drafts. For now, a good rule of thumb would be to treat 2021 rookie first-rounders as roughly equivalent to 2020 first-rounders. It is a very good class at the top for both wide receivers and quarterbacks. The running back group has gone from looking terrible to looking at least average with Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Chuba Hubbard now included. The early read is that 2021 doesn’t look to be as deep as this 2020 rookie class but is every bit as good at the very top.

Quarterback

PosRank
Player
Superflex
One QB
1
64
28
2
60
24
3
50
12
4
40
9
5
35
8
6
33
8
7
30
8
8
28
6
9
23
5
10
22
5
11
22
5
12
21
6
13
21
6
14
20
4
15
20
4
16
20
4
17
20
5
18
18
4
19
16
3
20
14
2
21
14
1
22
13
3
23
10
1
24
10
1
25
8
2
26
8
2
27
8
0
28
7
1
29
6
0
30
6
1
31
6
0
32
5
0
33
5
0
34
4
0
35
4
0

News and Notes

  1. Patrick Mahomes II capped off an incredible playoff run by engineering his third straight comeback of at least 10 points to beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl last night. Entering the playoffs, it felt like there was a little bit of separation at the top of the quarterback rankings. Lamar Jackson put together an all-time great season and put up almost 60 more fantasy points than any other quarterback and outscored Mahomes by over 100 points (though Mahomes did play 1.5 fewer games). Seeing Mahomes back at full health, it feels like a 1A and 1B situation at the top. As to who you should prefer, it may come down to risk tolerance. Lamar Jackson’s running ability gives him unmatched upside. However, he feels like a slightly riskier long-term bet than Mahomes, who looks like he is going to spend the next decade putting up huge passing numbers.
  2. January was a rough month for aging quarterbacks. Drew Brees threw for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in a first-round loss. Taysom Hill made more impact plays on just a handful of snaps at quarterback. Tom Brady was also bounced in the first round after throwing for 209 yards, no touchdowns, and 1 INT. It is feeling closer and closer to the end of the road for these 40+ year old quarterbacks. Philip Rivers (38) and Ben Roethlisberger (38 in March) are also getting way up there in years. Eli Manning decided to retire at age 39. Combined with the playoff exploits of Patrick Mahomes II and the MVP season of Lamar Jackson, the changing of the guard at the quarterback position feels complete.
  3. There seems to be some smoke around Philip Rivers and the Colts. The Colts are also being connected with Jordan Love and Jacob Eason in the first round of the draft. It is looking more and more like Jacoby Brissett did not do enough to put himself in a position to be the starter moving forward.

Running Back

PosRank
Player
Value
1
64
2
58
3
45
4
45
5
45
6
36
7
35
8
32
9
32
10
28
11
25
12
25
13
20
14
20
15
19
16
18
17
17
18
15
19
Le'Veon Bell
15
20
14
21
13
22
12
23
11
24
10
25
10
26
10
27
8
28
8
29
8
30
8
31
7
32
7
33
7
34
7
35
7
36
6
37
5
38
5
39
5
40
5
41
5
42
4
43
4
44
4
45
4
46
4
47
4
48
4
49
4
50
3
51
3
52
3
53
3
54
3
55
2
56
2
57
2
58
2
59
2
60
2

News and Notes

  1. For the second-straight season, Damien Williams put up big numbers in the biggest games for the Chiefs. He scored six times in three playoff games, averaged 7.3 targets and 15.3 carries per game, and played approximately 90% of the snaps. He also had a 154-yard, two-touchdown game in the regular-season finale to help get the Chiefs a first-round bye. Williams is again going to be a conundrum for dynasty owners this offseason. When in the lead role, Williams has proven capable of producing huge fantasy numbers. However, we have no idea what role he will ultimately land in next season. In a recent startup I participated in, Williams was the 36th veteran running back selected, behind guys like Tony Pollard, Justice Hill, and Darrell Henderson. On the one hand, that sort of ADP makes sense. Williams could easily be replaced in free agency or the draft and have minimal trade value come May. On the other hand, we know there is upside here and a chance for Williams to turn his playoff role into a full-time workload in the 2020 regular season.
  2. Derrick Henry was a breakout star of the playoffs. He had back-to-back 200+ yard games in road victories against the Patriots and Ravens. If the Titans can’t get Ryan Tannehill signed to a long-term extension in the next month, early indications are that he will receive the franchise tag. That would make Henry an unrestricted free agent and set up a fascinating case study to see what the market is for an old-school bruising running back.
  3. The 49ers running back situation will bear close watching again this offseason. There will almost certainly be a committee to some extent but there is real potential for meaningful fantasy impact even with the committee approach given the potency of the rushing offense. San Francisco rushed for 23 touchdowns (most in the league) and 2,305 yards (2nd-most). The fantasy advice seems almost universal with the vast majority of fantasy analysts recommending trying to sell Raheem Mostert for whatever you can get. However, his trade value is so low that at some point he may become a nice target to buy on the cheap. Over his last eight games (playoffs included), Mostert rushed for 715 yards and 11 touchdowns (a full-season pace of 1,430 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns). He is under contract for two more years.

Wide Receiver

PosRank
Player
Value
1
48
2
42
3
40
4
40
5
36
6
36
7
32
8
30
9
30
10
30
11
28
12
27
13
26
14
25
15
24
16
22
17
21
18
21
19
20
20
19
21
D.J. Chark
19
22
18
23
16
24
16
25
16
26
16
27
15
28
15
29
14
30
13
31
12
32
12
33
N\'Keal Harry
10
34
10
35
10
36
10
37
10
38
9
39
9
40
9
41
9
42
9
43
8
44
8
45
8
46
8
47
8
48
8
49
7
50
7
51
7
52
6
53
6
54
6
55
5
56
5
57
5
58
4
59
4
60
4
61
4
62
4
63
4
64
4
65
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
4
66
3
67
3
68
3
69
3
70
2
71
2
72
Zack Pascal
2
73
2
74
Desean Jackson
2
75
2

News and Notes

  1. It will be interesting to see if the A.J. Brown hype train starts to lose some steam this offseason or if his trade value will continue to climb. His playoff production provides some reason for skepticism. In three games, he averaged 3.3 targets, 1.7 catches and 21.3 receiving yards per game. If you ignored the concerns about his situation and drafted him highly in your rookie draft, you have to look back at the decision and feel great about it. However, those situational concerns have not just disappeared. The Titans are likely to remain a run-heavy offense that spreads the ball around to a number of targets in the passing game (Brown, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Jonnu Smith, etc.). Brown saw just 84 targets in 2019. He was still able to put up WR2 numbers but the fantasy production looks unsustainable if he doesn’t see a big boost in volume. Amongst the top-50 wide receivers, Brown’s 12.5 yards per target and 2.44 fantasy points per target (not counting rushing production) were both tops by a decent margin. He also caught a touchdown on 9.5% of his targets, well above the average amongst the top-50 (5.4%). If those per-target numbers go from amazing to merely very good in 2020, he is going to need to see a big jump in targets to be an impact fantasy producer.
  2. Deebo Samuel looked like one of the best players on the field in the Super Bowl. Expect his dynasty stock to jump up considerably this offseason. In a January startup draft, Samuel went 42 picks after A.J. Brown and it is hard to justify that large a gap between the two. Samuel had a strong rookie season, catching 57 passes for 802 yards and leading the league’s wide receivers in rushing yards with 159. In terms of the rushing yards, it is worth noting that he had just five carries going into Week 13. Most of his rushing production came later in the season and he had 102 more rushing yards in the playoffs. It is not unreasonable to think Samuel could double or even triple his rushing yards in his second season.
  3. Tyreek Hill saw 16 targets in the Super Bowl. Kansas City is going to have to make some tough salary-cap decisions this offseason with Patrick Mahomes II on the verge of breaking the bank. Sammy Watkins could be the first to go. Behind Michael Thomas, there are quite a few wide receivers who could make the case for being the dynasty WR2. Give me Hill from that group. He is a couple of years younger than DeAndre Hopkins and locked into a long-term deal to play with Patrick Mahomes II.

Are WR1s a dying breed?

The summer is usually the best time to really focus on bigger picture trends and we will definitely do more of that in June and July. However, we can start to make some of these bigger picture observations now. In reviewing what happened in 2019 from a fantasy perspective, the general lack of impact from wide receivers (aside from Michael Thomas) stands out. Target counts can vary subtly from sources but in looking at the numbers on NFL savant, it is notable how few target hogs there were in 2019. Thomas was the only player in the NFL who saw more than 150 targets last season. From 2015-2018, there was an average of 10.3 players each year who saw over 150 targets and never less than eight in any year.

Another way to look at it is in terms of averages. In 2015, the Top 12 wide receivers saw 173 targets. In 2019, the Top 12 wide receivers saw 142 targets. That is an average drop of 31 targets per player at the top of the league.

We saw the direct impact of the top receivers seeing way fewer targets on fantasy scoring. In 2015, eight wide receivers had 275+ fantasy points (six had 300+). In 2018, nine wide receivers had 275+. Last year, just one wide receiver scored 275+ fantasy points in PPR scoring. In terms of giving you a big weekly advantage compared to a replacement-level wide receiver, only Michael Thomas delivered.

There are two ways to view these numbers and formulate your strategy this offseason:

  1. If you think this trend continues and we see fewer dominant fantasy WR1s moving forward, you should focus your efforts on building up advantages at the other positions and not over-invest in wide receivers.
  2. If you feel 2019 was a blip on the radar, then this offseason likely provides a buy-low opportunity on the elite wide receivers. Guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, etc. may never be cheaper to acquire than they are right now.

Tight End

PosRank
Player
Value
1
28
2
21
3
20
4
18
5
16
6
15
7
15
8
12
9
12
10
11
11
10
12
8
13
6
14
5
15
4
16
4
17
4
18
4
19
3
20
3
21
3
22
3
23
2
24
2
25
2

News and Notes

  1. Greg Olsen is out in Carolina, which opens the door for Ian Thomas. Expect his dynasty value to spike. He will still have to battle Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel for targets and we don’t even know who the quarterback in Carolina will be, however.
  2. George Kittle is understandably the consensus TE1 heading into the offseason. It was a bit surprising to see how little impact he made as a pass catcher in the playoffs, however. In three games, he averaged 2.7 catches for 23.7 yards and no scores. It is a very small sample size but it may be worth considering what the fantasy impact on Kittle might be if the 49ers defense and running game are both outstanding next season.
  3. The franchise tag for tight ends is projected to be about $10.7M, which is much cheaper than it is for almost every other position. Due to this, the likelihood that Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper get tagged is probably higher than the general public is assuming.
  4. This 2020 rookie class may be lacking big names at the top like last season. However, this group is sneaky deep and we should see five or six drafted in the first three rounds. This is something to keep in mind when valuing those second and third-round rookie picks in tight end premium formats.