Topic 1: Top Options
Of the top running backs and first 3-4 wide receivers off general rookie draft boards, who is your favorite value? Most overvalued option? Where do Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa fit on your board for Superflex and 2-QB formats?
It is a fantastic rookie class and most of the options would be top four rookie picks in other years. Historically, most are values, but in the class, Jalen Reagor is my favorite value. He is my WR1 in this class and has a very similar profile as Brandin Cooks, which is very high praise. While he is WR1 on my rookie board he remains behind the top five running backs in the class.
The most overrated player in the class is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I like the player, but the cost and profile are a major caution. In tracking startup drafts before and after the NFL Draft, Edwards-Helaire jumped nearly five rounds in value. His first-round pedigree certainly improved his value, but the market reaction to the landing spot in Kansas City was the bigger factor. History strongly supports that profile matters more than the landing spot, so I am fading his post-NFL Draft cost.
Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are two players I have not selected in rookie drafts. That is nothing against specifically Burrow and Tagovailoa as both have good profiles. Instead, the cost is too high in a good class. With other options that are cheaper, like Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford who significant track records of production, that you can target to address a need at the quarterback position. If they dropped to the 1.06 spot in rookie drafts behind the top five running backs, they would be target players, but in superflex drafts, there is virtually no chance that happens.
My first-round draft board basically matches what we are seeing in terms of rookie ADP. The conventional wisdom is actually wise this year. Each of the top prospects has major upside and none are grossly overvalued in terms of the order they are going off the board. While the order at the top is fine, Jonathan Taylor may be slightly overrated purely in terms of the perceived gap in value between him and the other top running backs. His college production is being overrated and many are giving him more credit than he deserves for the Badgers rushing offense. Multiple Wisconsin backs have had better seasons just in the last ten years than Taylor's best season and I believe if you would have put any of the other top backs from the class into the workhorse role with the Badgers, they would have put up similar numbers. Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are all in the same general tier for me but that doesn’t seem to be the case in dynasty startup drafts or trades. People are giving up way too much to move up from 1.04 or 1.05 to 1.02 for Taylor.
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