Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 16

Footballguys staff rankings and the reasoning behind player movement. Contributions by Jason Wood, Chad Parsons, and Andy Hicks

Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the Why? more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.

Quarterback

Parsons

Jalen Hurts - The sample size is still paper-thin, but the early signs are positive on Hurts being a strong fantasy option when under center with his mobility and good enough passing skillset. I still have cautious optimism for Carson Wentz - whether in Philadelphia or not in the coming season - but Hurts is on a path to challenge for (at a minimum, maximum of being the presumed Week 1 starter) the lead job for the Eagles next season. He is inside my top-25 dynasty quarterbacks after being outside the top-35 weeks ago.

Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is moving down on my board. He is eroding at a faster rate than Philip Rivers or Tom Brady, which 12 months ago I never would have expected. This despite a strong set of weapons. With only one week left in this year's fantasy season, the projection is squarely on 2021+ and I can see the argument for Roethlisberger being outside the top-25 in dynasty quarterbacks and even outside the top-30.

Hicks

Justin Herbert - Herbert is in with a real shot of breaking Andrew Luck’s record for passing yardage by a rookie quarterback. He should also get close to the lowest interception numbers for a rookie with 500 plus passing attempts. All this portends a fantastic career ahead of him. What the Chargers do with the coaching staff will be vital for his development and future though. A second offensive system in two years for a young quarterback can be brutal for their progress. Where he ranks for 2021 and beyond will be decided by this.

Matt Ryan - Ryan has a heavy dead cap figure for 2021 of almost $50 million. The fine print in these contracts means they may be able to lower that figure. We will see. With a new coaching group arriving and Ryan a possible choice to land in San Francisco, this is the season to move on. It is more likely that the cost is too high, and Ryan plays out 2021 under a new coach or as a bridge to the next starter. Until the offseason jigsaw puzzle pieces are assembled Ryan remains a borderline QB1

Matthew Stafford - It is rare for a genuine franchise quarterback to be on his fourth head coach. With 12 years under his belt in Detroit and a new head coach coming in, it may be time for Matthew Stafford to try somewhere else. His dead cap figure is still significant at 24.85 million, but it is workable if the team drafts his replacement or start with a bridge quarterback. At age 32, he will have a market for his services, but there is just as much chance Detroit roll with him for one more season at least. It all comes down to whether Stafford wants to be in Detroit.

Wood

Jalen Hurts - Hurts moves up 11 spots to QB23 after strong back-to-back performances in place of Carson Wentz. I am sure many others already have Hurts higher, but I was not sure he would ever get a real shot at the starting job; clearly, I was wrong. He is thrown the ball better than I expected, but it is still too small a sample size to overcome the reservations I had about him coming out of college. He is certainly on the rise and could finish the season as a top-15 dynasty quarterback if he plays well in the team's final two games.

Ryan Tannehill - Tannehill moves into the Top 12 with continued strong play and a sense of continuity on an offense that routinely puts up 30 or more points. While Derrick Henry is the engine that drives the Titans train, Tannehill has been far more than a game manager. He has continued last year's emergence, with accurate, confident downfield passing. He is young enough to remain in peak form for another three to five years.

Marcus Mariota - Mariota moves into the Top 35 (QB34) after filling in admirably for Derek Carr last week. Mariota was terrible in Tennessee and it will take more than a strong three quarters to overcome the bad tape we have on him. Yet, Derek Carr has no guaranteed money entering 2021, and Jon Gruden was enamored with Mariota coming out of Oregon. It is possible Mariota could play his way into a starting job in the next few weeks, but it is equally possible he will be relegated back to a backup role. It is a coin flip, but one worth watching.

Carson Wentz – Wentz drops eight spots to QB20. Some may argue this isn't far enough given Wentz's horrifically bad play this season, but he's still young and many NFL personnel executives have expressed a belief he is still a top-10 quarterback if he has the right system. This will be the cheapest you can buy Wentz if he ends up on another team in 2021 but given the cap constraints it is equally possible, he will be the backup in Philadelphia next year, but will sign as a starter elsewhere in 2022.

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