Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Philip Rivers – Rivers does not have the arm strength of his early career and is unable to find his play-makers down the field. This could be his last year in Indianapolis and in the NFL. Sure, his consecutive three-touchdown games are attractive, but they are from dump-offs and only a fantasy mirage.
Gardner Minshew – Even before the injury, Minshew was not playing well. The Jaguars are circling the drain and likely drafting a quarterback with the high-first-round pick. His injury could make him miss multiple weeks. This is a team in transition. Minshew should have a long career, even if holding a clipboard for many years, ala Colt McCoy.
Sam Darnold - Sam Darnold is very concerning. On average, top 10 NFL Draft picks at the quarterback position who fail to hit for a top 12 seasonal finish start 50 games. Darnold has started 32 and now has a reaggravated shoulder injury. His team is also starring down the barrel of the first overall pick, and the opportunity to reset the clock at quarterback with a new coaching staff. This is a dangerous value situation. Entering the season, Darnold’s priors, top 10 NFL Draft picks without a top 12 seasonal finish entering year three, hit 47% of the time for a future top 12 seasonal finish. When those quarterbacks miss in year three, the hit rate drops to 11%. Darnold is clearly in that 11% group at this point in his career as he is a near-certain miss in 2020. Darnold may have room for a Ryan Tannehill-type second act, but his value has fallen considerably.
Justin Herbert – Hebert had a huge game against the Jaguars two weeks ago, and had the Chargers out to a 24 to 10 lead against the Broncos before the defense collapsed and gave up 21 points to lose by 1. Hebert has 625 yards passing and six touchdowns against just two interceptions and even posted 87 yards rushing and a touchdown as well. He’s well on his way to offensive rookie of the year and is firmly entrenched as the Charger starting quarterback.
Gardner Minshew – Injuries and poor play have Minshew looking at the bench after the Jaguars come back from a bye week. He was a serviceable fantasy quarterback up to this point and given how bad Jacksonville has been playing, there’s a decent chance that Minshew won’t really be given much of a chance to regain his starting job. He’s still worth a roster spot in any dynasty league, but also don’t hesitate to drop him if you need to make room for a player with a bigger upside.
Kyle Allen – The NFC East is pretty pathetic this season, but even at 2-5, Washington is well in the hunt for the division at the half-way point in the season. With their next 4 games against the Giants, Lions, Bengals, and Cowboys and the NFL considering a 16-team playoff system, Kyle Allen could be the starting quarterback on a division leader with a decent shot at making the playoffs by game 12. Washington appears to be done with Dwayne Haskins at this point and if Allen can string together a couple more wins, he could cement himself as Washington’s starting quarterback for the rest of the season.