DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 17

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Nailing down a common roster construction at any position is difficult in Week 17, and this year is no exception. We know Patrick Mahomes II is resting, which makes Deshaun Watson ($7,700) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) the most likely quarterback choices for those who pay up. Ryan Tannehill ($7,000) should join them at the top of wishlists thanks to Tennessee’s slate-high 32-point implied team total. There are plenty of less expensive quarterbacks whose teams have a realistic chance to lead the slate in scoring, but an abundance of value at the running back and wide receiver positions may force the crowd to view options like Kirk Cousins ($6,300), Philip Rivers ($6,000), and Derek Carr ($5,900) as unnecessary.

Pivot Points: Who you use at quarterback shouldn’t matter much from a game theory perspective. Roster percentages will be so tightly clustered at the position, there isn’t a singular play that will gain you significant leverage on the field. If you want to go the contrarian route, Baker Mayfield ($5,500) is interesting now that he has his wide receiver group back. Pittsburgh will be resting key starters and Cleveland is implied to score a solid 26.25 points.

Running Back

There was already a ton of value at the running back position before we learned Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara (and Latavius Murray) would miss Week 17. With Alexander Mattison ($6,100) and Ty Montgomery ($4,000) added to the player pool, spending at the position can go in any number of directions. Derrick Henry ($9,400) should command plenty of attention, but it's just as likely the field takes a balanced approach to the position. Mattison, D'Andre Swift ($6,300), Josh Jacobs ($6,200), Jeff Wilson ($6,000), and Melvin Gordon III ($5,700) are each fairly priced in beatable matchups, while Malcolm Brown ($4,300) Ty Johnson ($4,300), and Montgomery are in line for full workloads at or around the running back min-price.

Pivot Points: The possible reward outweighs the risk that comes with Henry's inflated roster percentage. He’s within 223 yards of a 2,000-yard rushing season, Houston’s rush defense never puts up a fight, and even if the Titans clinch a playoff berth by virtue of a Miami or Indianapolis loss, seeding will still be on the line for Tennessee. Keep an eye on Chase Edmonds’ status. If we can project Kenyan Drake ($5,400) for 20 carries and Edmonds’ usual role in the passing game, 100+ scrimmage yards and multiple touchdowns are in play at a low-to-middling roster percentage.

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