DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 16

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

DraftKings jacked up the price on Jalen Hurts ($7,000), but the more exorbitant salaries of Patrick Mahomes II ($8,500) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) should conspire to make the Eagles rookie the slate’s most sought-after quarterback. But assuming the crowd wants to pay up for at least one high-end running back and wide receiver, even Hurts may be difficult to fit under the cap. Look for salary-saving matchup plays Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700) and Baker Mayfield ($6,100) in plenty of lineups.

Pivot Points: While spending up to Mahomes, Jackson, and Deshaun Watson ($7,600) in a portion of your lineups is recommended due to their unmatched scoring ceilings, punting at quarterback looks like the right idea in the context of this slate. Cut the Trubisky chalk with either Drew Lock ($5,000) in a potential shootout vs. the LA Chargers, or Teddy Bridgewater ($5,300), who seems underappreciated in comparison to the presumed popularity of his wide receivers.

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara are off the main slate, leaving the running back position far thinner than usual. David Montgomery ($7,700) projects as the crowd-favorite RB1 despite his season-high salary. Those who are leery of Montgomery continuing his hot streak are likely to turn to Austin Ekeler ($7,600) instead. Phillip Lindsay will miss this week, making Melvin Gordon III ($5,600) the most common RB2. The remaining RB2/Flex options will probably come from either side of the Bengals at Texans matchup. David Johnson ($6,100) and Giovani Bernard ($4,800) are each low-priced relative to their respective workload projections.

Pivot Points: You won’t be sneaking Nick Chubb ($7,800) or Miles Sanders ($7,000) past your opponents, but each comes with the upside to finish as the overall RB1 and won’t command the same hefty roster percentages as Montgomery and Ekeler. There isn’t much beyond Bernard in the running back bargain bin. Darrell Henderson’s ($4,500) workload is difficult to project, but he’s more explosive as a runner and receiver than Malcolm Brown ($4,000) and should get the slight majority of LA’s backfield touches in Cam Akers’ absence.

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