DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 15

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Quarterback roster percentages should be spread thin as usual. Top-tier signal-callers, such as Patrick Mahomes II ($7,900), Lamar Jackson ($7,500), and Kyler Murray ($7,000) will be popular but are hard to fit in alongside this week’s top running backs and pass-catchers. Look for the common construction to spend down at quarterback, where Jalen Hurts ($5,900) should lead the way after cracking the 100-yard rushing bonus in his debut as the Eagles starter last week. Mitchell Trubisky ($5,500) and Jared Goff ($6,300) will also draw consideration as matchup plays.

Pivot Points: The Titans have the highest implied team total on the slate, making Ryan Tannehill ($6,700) a leverage play against Derrick Henry’s presumed popularity. Further down the salary rankings, Philip Rivers ($5,900) is in a similar spot to Tannehill. Indianapolis is implied to score 29 points, and while Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton will be popular this week, less attention will focus on Rivers. There are worse ideas than completely punting the position with Gardner Minshew ($5,300) or Nick Mullens ($5,100) due to the respective ceilings each has shown us in the past.

What Could Change: When we receive word Brandin Cooks is officially back, some of Deshaun Watson’s ($6,800) upside will be restored. Matthew Stafford ($5,800) is likely to scratch with a ribs injury. You don’t want any part of Chase Daniel ($5,000), but if he steps in for the Lions, we should see more short-area targets for Danny Amendola ($4,200), T.J. Hockenson ($5,200), and D'Andre Swift ($6,400).

Running Back

With the news breaking early Friday morning that Drew Brees will return, Alvin Kamara ($7,400) can safely be projected to resume his early-season passing-game role at an extreme discount. Kamara will usurp Derrick Henry ($9,500) as the crowd's favored RB1. After Kamara, common roster construction will diverge based on whether or not our opponents consider Travis Kelce ($8,000) a must-start. Those who use Kelce are likely to choose an RB2 in the $5.5K-$6.5K range, where Kenyan Drake ($5,500) and Cam Akers ($6,600) look like the top choices. Regardless of whether Kelce is in the lineup, expect injury fill-ins Jeff Wilson ($5,100) and Leonard Fournette ($4,500) to be popular flex plays.

Pivot Points: The re-installation of Kamara as a lock-button RB1 will cap the roster percentages of the other top-tier backs, making Henry, Dalvin Cook ($9,000), and Jonathan Taylor ($7,200) better tournament plays than they appeared to be on Thursday. While Gus Edwards ($4,400) will remain involved, we saw J.K. Dobbins ($5,900) handle a season-high 62% snap-share last week. There is a chance we can buy in early on an Akers-like takeover of the starting job for the explosive rookie, who also benefits from playing Jacksonville’s dismal defense at home.

What Could Change: Chase Edmonds will be a game-day decision. If he’s out, Kenyan Drake ($5,500) will be the crowd’s preferred RB2/Flex ahead of Wilson and Fournette. Wilson will remain a touchdown-dependent flyer if Raheem Mostert is cleared to play We should stay glued to quotes coming out of Tampa Bay on how they plan to distribute touches after Fournette was a healthy scratch last week. Antonio Gibson is iffy to play through his turf toe injury, which potentially puts J.D. McKissic ($5,700) back in play. McKissic was popular last week, but a game script that called for heavy targets failed to materialize.

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