DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 14

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

A reasonable case can be made for at least nine quarterbacks to finish as the top overall scorer on the slate. As a result, we should expect extremely flat roster percentages at the position. It feels like a safe bet Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100), Russell Wilson ($7,700), Aaron Rodgers ($7,500), Tom Brady ($6,900), Justin Herbert ($6,800), and Ryan Tannehill ($6,700) will chop up the popularity in the top tier of quarterbacks, while Matt Ryan ($5,700) profiles as the top punt option. It remains to be seen how the crowd will react to Jalen Hurts ($5,100).

Pivot Points: It’s probably not a week to go too contrarian to start your stacks, but there are a handful of quarterbacks who should go lightly-rostered on teams with good-enough implied totals. Philip Rivers ($5,900), Teddy Bridgewater ($5,800), and Taysom Hill ($6,600) each qualify.

Saturday PM Update: D.J. Moore is out but Curtis Samuel will be active. The low prices and increased ceilings of both Carolina receivers make Bridgewater a quarteback you can double stack.

Running Back

It’s a rare week in which Dalvin Cook ($9,400) won’t be the chalk. Cook’s tough on-paper matchup against Tampa Bay will lead most entrants to click on Derrick Henry ($8,700), Aaron Jones ($7,600), James Robinson ($7,500), or Austin Ekeler ($7,000) at RB1. Based on the presumed popularity of Davante Adams ($9,300), the common roster construction will need to include an RB2 in the mid-range, where Myles Gaskin ($5,600) stands out as underpriced.

Pivot Points: Cook should top out in the 10-12% range, which makes him a fine pivot off the running back chalk. In a ”disappointing” game last week (26.9 DraftKings points), he still commanded 32 carries and nine targets. Chris Carson ($6,900) is overpriced relative to his recent production and has a poor matchup against the Jets rush defense. But Carson was back to 70% of the backfield touches last week and the setup for Seattle couldn’t be better (-13.5, 30.25-point implied total).

Saturday PM Update: Myles Gaskin was placed on the COVID list, and Matt Breida and Salvon Ahmed are both out. DeAndre Washington ($4,000) is now the best running back value on the slate and will be popular. Plugging Washington into the common construction makes it easier for entrants to roster both Henry and Davante Adams in the same lineup, or fit Travis Kelce in at tight end. It appears Frank Gore will suit up tomorrow, putting a damper on hopes Ty Johnson could be a viable play. D’Andre Swift ($6,500) is likely to play in a plus matchup against Green Bay’s awful rush defense. He is an ideal run-back in Rodgers-Adams stacks. Ezekiel Elliott ($6,600) should play through a calf injury.

Already have a Footballguys account? Sign in here:

Want to see the rest?

Become a Daily Fantasy Pro to view the full version of this page.

Satisfaction Guaranteed

"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."

Matthew Berry, ESPN

With our
Money Back Guarantee
you have nothing to lose


More articles from Phil Alexander

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: DraftKings

See all