DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 13

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Russell Wilson ($7,700) has the highest salary at the position but his play has tailed off the last three weeks, which leaves Deshaun Watson ($7,500) and Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) as the likeliest crowd-favorite luxury purchases. But unless we see a repeat of Week 12 (where an obscene amount of value-plays opened up late in the week), common roster builds are more likely to include a mid-priced quarterback.

Pivot Points: While there is merit to targeting Wilson, Kyler Murray ($7,600), and Justin Herbert ($6,900) at reduced roster percentages, punting is also an option. Mitchell Trubisky ($5,400) stinks, but the Bears’ 24-point team total puts him in play for three touchdowns against Detroit’s awful defense. Baker Mayfield ($5,300) rarely throws enough to warrant GPP consideration, but the Tennessee defense invites shootouts. Eventually, touchdown variance will swing in Mayfield’s favor again, as it did in Week 5 against the Bengals (30.78 DraftKings points).

Saturday AM Update: Tua Tagovailoa appears to be on the wrong side of questionable, making Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,000) a high-floor quarterback option, as well as a fine tournament play.

Running Back

DraftKings did a nice job of pricing up Dalvin Cook ($9,500) and Derrick Henry ($9,200), the top running backs on the slate in terms of raw projections. Despite their high salaries (and mild health concerns in Cook’s case), we can safely expect our opponents to build around one of these two studs. As of this writing, the middle and low salary tiers both lack glaring value, which should push entrants towards Austin Ekeler ($7,100) at RB2 after he returned last week to a 25-touch workload. Other popular RB2 options will include David Montgomery ($5,500), who faces the Lions after a career-best performance in Week 12, and either Nyheim Hines ($5,300) or Jonathan Taylor ($5,700) in a matchup against Houston’s 27th-ranked rush defense (DVOA).

Pivot Points: The $6.5-$7K range at running back looks to be the road less traveled for our opponents. Chris Carson ($6,300), D'Andre Swift ($6,500), Miles Sanders ($6,500), and Alvin Kamara ($7,000) each possess theoretical slate-breaking upside but also come with major question marks that expand their range of possible outcomes.

Saturday AM Update: Josh Jacobs’ ankle injury will keep him out this week which will propel Devontae Booker's ($5,500) roster percentage towards the top of the charts. Booker is a better play than David Montgomery at the same salary, and similar roster rate, in a matchup against the Jets. We're still awaiting word on Myles Gaskin ($5,900), but he is trending towards playing while Matt Breida, DeAndre Washington, and Salvon Ahmed are out for Miami. Assuming Gaskin is cleared, he'll become popular, which could reduce the roster percentages of Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker, making them more appealing tournament plays. David Johnson ($5,400) appears likely to return and makes for a fine leverage play against Houston's passing game. Swift (see below) will be limited if he plays, making the Lions backfield one to avoid in all formats. Pete Carroll stated Chris Carson will receive a heavier workload this week, which is significant because Carlos Hyde may not play.

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