DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 12

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

The last two slates have been unusually low scoring, but we should return to normalcy this week with seven games expected to reach at least 49 points. Our opponents might want to spend up to Patrick Mahomes II ($8,000) and Kyler Murray ($8,200), but probably won’t be able to get past Josh Allen ($7,600) at the high end due to DraftKings’ efficient pricing. More commonly, the crowd will target either side of the Raiders at Falcons game (55-½ point over/under) with Derek Carr ($5,700) or Matt Ryan ($5,900).

Pivot Points: Starting your stacks with Mahomes or Murray will never qualify as contrarian, but without much obvious value on the slate, it’s nearly impossible to build balanced lineups around them. Use the tight pricing to your advantage with plenty of stars & scrubs lineups featuring the two highest-ceiling quarterbacks in the league. Moving down, entrants may look past Teddy Bridgewater ($6,300) in a great spot at Minnesota due to his recent injury. Daniel Jones ($5,500) is your price pivot off Carr against Cincinnati, whose season effectively ended when Joe Burrow’s knee got mangled last week.

Running Back

Running back salaries are the reason most folks will look to save at quarterback. As usual, Dalvin Cook ($9,500) will be the first name entrants click when building lineups. Josh Jacobs ($7.200) and James Robinson ($6,300) are the standout options at RB2, and only Robinson is a relative bargain. Derrick Henry ($7,900) and Nick Chubb ($7,100) should have their fans as well, but neither is likely to appear in the most common build. Look for Wayne Gallman ($5,000) to emerge as the crowd-favorite bargain-bin running back, and a popular flex option, due to his matchup against the Bengals.

Pivot Points: How confident are you the move to Taysom Hill at quarterback has ruined Alvin Kamara as a pass-catcher? Unless you’re more than 95% certain, Kamara is a worthwhile pivot at the top salary tier. Kareem Hunt ($5,600) gets the same choice matchup against Jacksonville as Chubb but comes with significant salary savings, a lower roster percentage, and what appears to be a solidified red-zone role. The mid-$5K price range includes several other backs with theoretical upside who figure to go overlooked, including the returning Raheem Mostert ($5,600), Kenyan Drake ($5,400), and Jonathan Taylor ($5,900).

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