DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 11

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

There is a distinct lack of star power at quarterback, where crowd favorites Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Josh Allen are unavailable on the main slate. As a result, roster percentages will be extremely flat at the position, and dialing in on a singular common lineup construction may not be possible. Those who spend up are most likely to opt for Justin Herbert ($6,800) or Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700). Cam Newton ($6,200) will draw some interest as a mid-priced option thanks to his matchup against Houston’s hapless defense, and there is no shortage of punt options to choose from, including Joe Burrow ($5,500), Alex Smith ($5,300), and the uber-intriguing Taysom Hill ($4,800).

Pivot Points: With roster-rates spread out evenly over such a wide range of price points, there isn’t an obvious salary range we can attack that our opponents are ignoring. In the top tier, you can consider Lamar Jackson ($7,300) as a solid point-per-dollar value who shouldn’t appear in more than 5% of lineups. Matt Ryan ($6,300) is a mid-range option seemingly flying below the radar in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans. The crowd isn’t missing much in the sub-$6K range, but maybe we can give Carson Wentz ($5,700) one last shot (assuming a game can ever be played in Cleveland again without 25+ mph winds).

Running Back

Most of our opponents will want to anchor their lineups with either Dalvin Cook ($9,000) or Alvin Kamara ($9,200) at RB1, which is especially easy for those who spend under $6K at quarterback. D'Andre Swift ($6,400) broke into the top tier of fantasy running backs last week, but his salary has yet to catch up, which will likely make him one of the highest-rostered players on the slate (if he's able to clear the league's concussion protocol). It wouldn’t be surprising if a sub-$6K running back is featured in the majority of Flex spots. Antonio Gibson ($5,800), Kalen Ballage ($5,600), and Duke Johnson Jr ($5,400) are the usual suspects.

Pivot Points: If our opponents are eye-balling running backs in the mid-$5K range, we can look for leverage in the $6K-$7K salary tier. In one of the more surprising plot twists of an exceedingly strange year, Ezekiel Elliott ($6,500) is now a mid-priced contrarian option. Other low-to-moderately rostered backs whose talent can outweigh defensive matchups in any given week include Nick Chubb ($7,000) and Miles Sanders ($6,900).

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