DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 10

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Three games on the slate have Vegas totals over 50 points and point spreads of less than a field goal. It’s safe to assume quarterback roster percentages will concentrate around those games, where Kyler Murray ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,500), Russell Wilson ($7,700), and Deshaun Watson ($6,900) are the standout options. Green Bay has the highest implied team total on the slate in a projected blowout win over Jacksonville at Lambeau, making Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) yet another reason for the crowd to spend heavily at quarterback.

Pivot Points: New Orleans is in a similar spot to Green Bay, as huge home favorites with a 30-point implied total. We haven’t seen Drew Brees ($6,400) reach much of a ceiling this season but he’s fairly priced, and with Michael Thomas back, Brees’ upside is elevated. If you’re looking for a contrarian punt play, Nick Mullens ($5,300) is capable of racking up yardage and multiple touchdowns in comeback mode against the Saints up-and-down pass defense.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey is back on the sidelines one week after returning from IR, leaving Mike Davis ($4,000) as the chalkiest play of the 2020 season. Davis’ low salary makes it easy to plug in Alvin Kamara ($8,200) or Aaron Jones ($7,100) at RB1, along with a mid-priced running back at flex, where the common options will include James Robinson ($6,600) and Miles Sanders ($6,400). If David Johnson can’t clear the concussion protocol, Duke Johnson Jr ($5,000) will join Davis as chalk, opening up even more cap space to spend up at quarterback and wide receiver.

Pivot Points: Last week’s dud against the Cowboys will make the crowd leery of trusting James Conner ($6,900), but now isn’t the time to stop targeting the Bengals rush defense. You’ll also want more exposure than the field to both Nick Chubb ($6,800) and Kareem Hunt ($6,700) at a similar price point to Sanders and Robinson. The Browns’ running backs will cannibalize each other’s roster rates, but the matchup against Houston makes it possible for one of them to lead the slate in scoring, even while sharing carries.

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