DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 9

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

We should expect roster rates at quarterback to be flat and tightly clustered at the top. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,100), Russell Wilson ($7,800), and Kyler Murray ($7,600) figure to cannibalize each other’s popularity in the top tier, and more will look to play the matchups with Deshaun Watson ($7,100), Josh Allen ($7,000), and Justin Herbert ($6,800) in the next tier down. Those looking to save at quarterback most likely have their eye on Matt Ryan ($6,400) and Derek Carr ($5,700), while some might be daring enough to try Drew Lock ($5,200) against the Falcons.

Pivot Points: Dalvin Cook is the chalk on this slate following his 50-point performance in Week 8. Stacking Kirk Cousins ($6,200) with his pass-catchers in a game Vegas has pegged for 54 total points is one way to gain leverage on Cook lineups. In general, the mid-$6K range looks like it will go lightly rostered, despite great on-paper matchups for Matthew Stafford ($6,600) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,500), and a season-low price tag for Lamar Jackson ($6,900).

Running Back

Cook ($8,200) will be the first name most entrants click when creating lineups, with James Conner ($6,900) and shiny new toy Chase Edmonds ($6,800) trailing him in popularity in the top tier. The most common construction is likely to feature a sub-$6K RB2 next to Cook. Matchup plays, such as David Johnson ($5,600) and Antonio Gibson ($5,800), are the usual suspects, though the injury report may have something to say about it. Keep an eye on the news cycle out of Seattle, Baltimore, and Miami, where Deejay Dallas ($5,000), J.K. Dobbins ($4,900), and Matt Breida ($4,000) could emerge as crowd favorites.

Pivot Points: Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is a wildcard on this slate. His salary is down $1,500 from Week 1 and his roster percentage should be suppressed by Cook and his own uncertain workload in his first game back. On the other side of the ball in the same game, it may also be a good time to buy the dip on Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100) as leverage on the popularity of Kansas City’s passing game. Derrick Henry ($7,900) is the best 1:1 price pivot off Cook. He’ll go relatively overlooked due to a perceived poor matchup against Chicago.

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