DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 7

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Spending at the quarterback position should range from moderate to heavy in the majority of lineups. Russell Wilson ($8,000) and Kyler Murray ($7,100) will attract the crowd as they face off in this week’s marquee game (55-point over/under) for DFS purposes. The high Vegas totals in Detroit at Atlanta (56-½) and Green Bay at Houston (56 points) make it a safe assumption most entrants will spend at least $6.5K at quarterback given the respective salaries of Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Matt Ryan ($6,700), Aaron Rodgers ($7,000), and Deshaun Watson ($6,800). Justin Herbert ($6,400) will likely draw some attention thanks to his matchup against Jacksonville’s dismal defense, but those looking to save at quarterback are more likely to turn to Joe Burrow ($5,500), who appears mispriced relative to his season-to-date production.

Pivot Points: The entire swath of quarterbacks from $5,600 to $6,300 will get glossed over by the masses. Cam Newton ($6,300) should bounce back from an underwhelming Week 6 performance, with New England unlikely to drop consecutive home games. Gardner Minshew ($5,900) won’t get many looks despite scoring between 20 and 28 DraftKings points in five-out-of-six games this season. And any game involving the Titans has the potential to shoot out, making Ryan Tannehill ($6,200) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) contrarian quarterbacks to build stacks around.

Running Back

The value in the $5K range at running back is more enticing than wide receiver, which makes it likely most entrants will pair an inexpensive option with Alvin Kamara ($7,900), Aaron Jones ($7,200), or Kareem Hunt ($6,800). Derrick Henry ($7,500) will have his fans in the top tier as well, though the matchup against Pittsburgh’s rush defense will scare many away. The most likely RB2 options in stock builds are cheap matchup plays -- Giovani Bernard ($4,500), David Johnson ($5,300), Justin Jackson ($4,900), and possibly even Antonio Gibson ($5,000). Kenyan Drake ($4,800) will also stand out as underpriced following his 31-point explosion on Monday Night Football.

Pivot Points: If you believe the Football Team will give Dallas less trouble than Arizona did on Monday, Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) is an intriguing price pivot in the top tier. The national TV audience just watched him fumble multiple times and lose some work to Tony Pollard. The salary range from $6K to $6.7K looks like the area to attack from a roster percentage standpoint. Todd Gurley ($6,000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100), Chris Carson ($6,400), Mike Davis ($6,600), and James Conner ($6,700) should all provide leverage.

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