DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 4

Looking for edges in DraftKings tournaments.

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Quarterback roster rates are traditionally flat on DraftKings, but they’ve spiked this season due primarily to Kyler Murray’s soft pricing through three weeks. With Murray now up to $7,000 and a staggering 10 teams on the slate implied to score at least 26 points, we should expect a return to normalcy. 10-12 quarterbacks will cannibalize each other’s popularity, and they range in price from $5,400 (Ryan Fitzpatrick) to $8,100 (Lamar Jackson). It will be difficult to project how much the average roster will spend at quarterback, as well as common roster construction on the whole, as a result.

Pivot Points: You shouldn’t care much about roster percentage at quarterback this week, since they’ll be so tightly bunched together. If there is a range that will go overlooked, it’s from $5,500 to $6,100, though going lower (Ryan Fitzpatrick at $5,400) or higher (starting with Burrow at $6,300) feels like the better process play given the available options.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara ($8,000) is the top luxury purchase at running back and should fill the RB1 slot in common rosters. Most entrants will look to an RB2 in the $5.6-$6.5K range, and probably one in the flex spot as well. Darrell Henderson ($5,600), Mike Davis ($5,700), Kenyan Drake ($6,000), and James Robinson ($6,500) are the likely suspects. In total, stock roster builds should devote around 40% of their cap to running backs.

Pivot Points: Pricing is efficient at the position, which means we should look for leverage in the same price tiers our opponents are likely to attack. Joe Mixon ($5,800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,300), Jonathan Taylor ($6,600), and Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) should see modest roster percentages relative to most slates.

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