Cracking FanDuel Week 15

A weekly overview on cash game strategy, bankroll strategy, and sample cash game lineups.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

Wow... one of the crazier lineup locks we've had in a long time.

Ezekiel Elliott is out, this makes Tony Pollard at $4,700 a must play. I still love J.K. Dobbins this week, but to save the additional $1,200 is too good to pass up.

Mike Gesicki, Devante Parker, Jakeem Grant are all out. This elevates the Patriots defense into the top spot and increases the outlook of Lynn Bowden Jr Jr as the Dolphins essentially have no one to throw to outside of Bowden and Mack Hollins.

This is going to open enough savings that I'm playing Derrick Henry in cash.

Below is a secondary lineup that could be great for a cash+ or GPP lineup. Essentially it is a fade of Derrick Henry.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

  • Tennessee (vs Detroit) – 31.25 points
  • LA Rams (vs NY Jets) – 30.5 points
  • Baltimore (vs Jacksonville) – 30.25 points
  • Indianapolis (vs Houston) – 29.25 points
  • Arizona (vs Philadelphia) – 28 points

RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Crazy week last week. Primary cash lineup when it was all said and done ended up right on the cash line for a lot of contests for me, while just below in some lineups ending up about break even. If Mahomes had only thrown two interceptions instead of three, would have won nearly all of my contests for the week.

What went right?

  • Going back to Derrick Henry paid off immensely as the guy just continues to have big games in December. Rushing for 215 yards and two touchdowns, he was a critical player to cash last week.
  • Dallas defense was huge last week as they scored a defensive touchdown and only allowed 7 points last week. They were popular, but were a much-needed help to the lineup.
  • Davante Adams continues to just produce 100 yard games and has now scored a touchdown in each of his last eight games.

What went wrong?

  • Variance, not playing David Montgomery was the right call, as while he had over 100 yards and a touchdown, he had just 11 carries last week. He also did something that he has never done in his professional or college career which is a 40+ yard touchdown. Prior to this game he had 5 runs longer than 35 and he was caught on all of them.
  • Corey Davis over Robby Anderson. In hindsight this one was just a bad process, Corey Davis is still the #3 option in that offense behind Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown and it was point chasing based off of recent performance. Meanwhile with no D.J. Moore last week, it should have been an obvious play to go with Anderson who I liked, but not as much as Davis.
  • While Cole Kmet was the best of the value players and got to where we needed him to get to, it is still tough to overcome the performances that Travis Kelce continues to put up. Kelce has topped 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and has 8 or more receptions in all 6 of those contests. He leads all players in receiving yards and is likely not priced anywhere close to where he should be.

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 15- Running Back is Key

The Lock:

Alvin Kamara-

With Drew Brees back, things should start to normalize in New Orleans. Kamara had his upside somewhat limited with Taysom Hill at quarterback due to the risk of the goal line work being taken from Hill who ran for four touchdowns in his four games as a starter. Kamara saw just 10 total receptions in his four games with Taysom Hill and will be elevated significantly this week with Brees as he averaged 7.4 per game.

The Contenders:

Top End-

Derrick Henry-

There’s not much of an argument here other than his price is extremely expensive. Essentially, Henry is going to need 120 yards and two touchdowns or 180 yards and a touchdown to pay off his salary which is a lot to ask for this week. The matchup is a great one as Detroit has allowed the most FanDuel points to the running back position on the season. Henry has topped 100 yards in four of his last five contests and has two multi-touchdown games in there as well. There is no doubt he’s a top play this week if you can afford him.

Dalvin Cook-

The one advantage of starting Dalvin Cook is volume and he is a discount compared to Henry. The problem with Cook is that you don’t get the full value of Cook due to FanDuel being a half-point PPR contest. Cook has had 30+ touches in four of his last seven games including 34 touches against the Bears earlier this season. While Cook was largely held in check against the Bears in their first meeting, this should not be any indication that the Bears will shut him down like they previously did as evidenced by Cook’s meetings with the Packers in which he had just 48 yards in Week 1, and then in their second meeting had 226 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Mid-Range-

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