SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Not a lot of news heading into Sunday Morning compared to the past few weeks.
Below are the big updates heading into Week 13:
1) Tua Tagovailoa will start over Ryan Fitzpatrick in a somewhat surprising move. Ryan Fitzpatrick was on some people's cash game radar this week as was DeVante Parker. Both of those players are no longer cash game viable. The move should solidify Myles Gaskin as an excellent cash game play this week as the Dolphins will lean on him against Cincinnati to setup the pass for Tua as they still try to ease him into the NFL.
2) Allen Robinson's knee injury that he suffered on Friday appears to be as the team said which was precautionary. Robinson is still an excellent cash game play on this slate.
3) We got a few questions on Chris Carson last night, he is not cash game viable, just want to make that crystal clear.
The biggest decision on this board today continues to be what you're planning to do at the running back position. There are essentially four different types of builds this week.
Build 1 Most Popular: Dalvin Cook, James Robinson/Austin Ekeler, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 2: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 3: Dalvin Cook, two of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 4: Derrick Henry, James Robinson/Austin Ekeler, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 5: Derrick Henry, two of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
I feel like this needs to be said. Dalvin Cook is going to be the more popular play, and in most models he rates out much higher. If you want to play it safe, go with Dalvin Cook in your lineup. Henry is the top player on my board, but I fully admit that I am in the minority across the industry here.
Here is where I'm currently landing. The more that I've thought about it, the more I think I want to go with the two stud running backs in Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Players such as Austin Ekeler and James Robinson have their own risks, and I don't like enough of the top end wide receivers to go with two of Booker/Montgomery/Gaskin. While I don't love Cook as much as some others, I still feel he is likely to top 100 yards and score a touchdown, but just don't feel he will have that 200 yard, 3 touchdown upside.
Essentially, this is a trade of James Robinson, T.J. Hockenson, and Cooper Kupp, for Dalvin Cook, Denzel Mims, and Anthony Firkser. Regarding Mims, he is establishing himself as the number one receiver in New York and the Jets need to continue to try to develop one of their lone bright spots on this team. Mims has topped 60 yards in each of his last three games, and has 23 targets over his last three games. The only thing he hasn't done is find the end-zone. Regarding Firkser, this is a punt play in the purest form. With no Jonnu Smith, Firkser becomes a value play on this slate only in the sense that there are no tight ends that are completely safe. Hockenson is the best tight end on this slate, but Cleveland has allowed four touchdowns in their last three games to opposing tight ends and if Firkser can find the end zone, he will pay off this lineup.
At the end of the day it is close between this lineup and the primary cash game lineup from Saturday, but this lineup comes in about 1.5 points higher, and feels a little bit safer with having Dalvin Cook in the lineup. Both are great plays and can be used for cash this week.
- QB Philip Rivers, IND, $7,000
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,000
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
- WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,500
- WR Denzel Mims, NYJ, $5,500
- TE Anthony Firkser, TEN, $4,600
- Flex RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $5,500
- TD Detroit Lions, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Minnesota (vs Jacksonville) – 31.25 points
- Tennessee (vs Cleveland) – 29.5 points
- Seattle (vs NY Giants) – 28.25 points
- Las Vegas (at NY Jets) – 27.75 points
- Green Bay (vs Philadelphia) – 27.5 points
RECAP OF LAST WEEK
The Sunday Morning Update was huge last week as it changed the slate from being one that was likely very unprofitable to one that won all of my cash games last week.
What went right?
- Fading Dalvin Cook in the Sunday Morning Update, which allowed a switch of Cook, Waller, and Cole Beasley, to James Robinson, Travis Kelce, and Calvin Ridley.
- Taking Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback
- Wayne Gallman as a cheap running back found the end zone and topped 100 total yards
What went wrong?
- Having so much confidence in Brian Hill. The guy just was not productive, and ended up conceding the second half to Ito Smith.
- Calvin Ridley was disappointing based on his price. While he found the end zone he ended up with just 6 receptions for 50 yards and the touchdown.
- Cooper Kupp and the Rams offense in general struggled against the 49ers.
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