Cracking FanDuel: Week 7

A weekly overview on cash game strategy, bankroll strategy, and sample cash game lineups.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

A lot of news has hit over the last 24 hours.

Aaron Jones it is looking like he will miss this game with a groin injury suffered in practice. This will elevate Jamaal Williams to the starting role which makes him a great cash play. There is some concern whether AJ Dillon will eat into his carries, but it should be a 75/25% split this week for Williams unless he struggles. With how bad the Texans are, I currently have Williams ahead of Gio Bernard as the value cash game play.

The Bills cornerback situation is turning into a mess. Josh Norman and Levi Wallace are out, and Tre'Davious White and Cam Lewis are both questionable. This should greatly help Breshad Perriman's chances at hitting value this week. However, going with Perriman is probably not a must start great cash game option based on Jamaal Williams and Gio Bernard both being such great values. He could be in consideration if you wanted to play someone like George Kittle. Going with the Washington Football Team defense over the Cowboys due to all of the offensive line issues with the Cowboys. Washington has 16 sacks on the season and Andy Dalton looked terrible last week.

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

  • Green Bay (at HOU)- 30 points
  • Seattle (at ARI)- 29.75 points
  • New Orleans (vs CAR)- 28.5 points
  • Buffalo (at NYJ)- 28.5 points
  • Atlanta (vs DET)- 28.5 points

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 7

Significant Overlap

This week there is slated to be significant overlap across the industry as the cash game builds are likely going to be similar or near the same. So, how should we account for this? If you’ve followed this article by now, you’ll know that the recommendation has always been to try and take on a significant amount of diversity in head-to-head games. However, this week, we are changing course a little bit, and targeting the low dollar small field 50/50 contests.

The contests that run that are typically 100 people that are not guaranteed to fill are the ones to target. Take last week for example, Alexander Mattison was the “must-start” guy, and put results aside, he was only 81% rostered in 50/50 contests. Now Mattison didn’t work out (thankfully Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson pulled it through for the primary cash lineup), but it shows that there are some players who are not paying attention nearly as close as others.

This still remains a risky strategy as it is a bit of all-or-nothing as these contests typically have around the same cash line score, but in a week like this the recommendation would be to take a little risk, and deviate from the Head-to-Head strategy that we’ve went deep into each year.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Joe Mixon will miss this week with a foot injury which will propel Gio Bernard into the starting role against Cleveland. On full PPR sites, Bernard is a must play, however on FanDuel, he is a great salary relief play and should exceed value on cash games, but will be extremely popular in tournaments and could be a nice contrarian option to fade this week.

Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both out this week. What is crazy here is that the line has not moved much as it started with New Orleans projected to score 29.25 points and it is down to 28.5 points. So, the question is who does New Orleans go to, and the answer is likely Alvin Kamara this week. Tre'Quan Smith is an intriguing cheap wide receiver who should see close to 10 targets,

Austin Hooper will miss this week due to an Appendectomy. David Njoku is getting all the love here, and we need to assess if that is the right move. The Browns love Harrison Bryant while Njoku has come out this week and requested a trade. This is likely a stay-away situation as we will get into the tight end play this week, but it is something to monitor particularly if there is news regarding snap counts or one player receiving more volume.

Aaron Jones is questionable this week with a calf injury which is terrible news as he did not practice all week. Jones was slated to be one of the key cash core players going up against a Houston defense that has been unable to stop anyone on the ground this year. If he doesn’t play, Jamaal Williams will likely be one of the better plays on the slate. If he does play, the concern for cash games is that he won’t receive enough volume and that it could be split due to the injury.

Jamison Crowder is also questionable after he was only able to get a limited practice in this week due to a groin injury suffered in practice. If he’s unable to go, more targets should funnel to Breshad Perriman, although he’s more of a GPP play than a cash game play this week.

Weather Concern

The Chiefs and Broncos game appears to have some weather concerns which is extremely disappointing in what should have been a good spot for the Chiefs. There appears to be 3-5 inches of snow coming to Denver during the game tomorrow with 10-15 mph winds. While the wind is not of extreme concern, the snow is less than ideal. Vegas has reacted to a concern dropping the total from 46.5 down to 44.5 indicating there is some level of concern here based on their historical weather models.

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