Thursday Morning UPdate:
First, I just want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. 2020 has been an unprecedented and difficult year for all, and I hope you're able to spend some time with your family even if it is virtual and just relax amongst the chaos. If you're reading this, the staff at Footballguys is extremely thankful for you continuing to be a part of the Footballguys family even during these trying times.
This slate just continues to get worse. with D'Andre Swift looking like he is going to miss this game with a concussion, it makes cash games very difficult due to the amount of overlap this week. The three running backs that will be in nearly every lineup will be Ezekiel Elliott, Duke Johnson Jr, and Antonio Gibson. Deviating from those in cash games seems like a mistake. At the quarterback and tight end positions you will have extreme popularity in Deshaun Watson and T.J. Hockenson this week leaving this week entirely up to wide receivers and defense which best case makes it a 4 v 4, but realistically likely a 2 v 2. Whether you play cash games or not is entirely up to you, I would recommend scaling it back a little bit this week compared to what I was originally intending to do. There will be a good number of people who try a wide receiver in a flex which is likely sub-optimal in cash.
Thursday Cash Game Lineup
If you have a head-to-head with an identical lineup as your opponent, email FanDuel support and they will refund your rake if you're nice to them. My email typically is similar to this, "in the past you have refunded my rake for identical H2H contests, please see the link, can you please refund the rake for this contest"
For GPP's, the strategy that I'm going with is a four wide receiver build instead of a three running back build in the flex position. This allows for the greatest number of variations as well as getting a little bit unique away from the Gibson, Elliott, Johnson builds. I don't love GPP's this week, mostly because the odds of a shared top prize are extremely high, but I will have a couple of lineups out there this week.
Game Stacks can work on a slate like this, so don't be afraid to do something that puts Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks in the same lineup. Get creative, there really isn't a bad lineup this week in a GPP format.
SHOULD YOU PLAY CASH GAMES?
The Thanksgiving slate is one of the more fun slates of the year typically. Personally, as someone who gets extremely invested in my lineups, cash games work perfectly for me, as I’m not sweating over every touchdown like I do in a GPP format.
Thanksgiving typically brings out a lot of players who may have played early on in the season and had either given up or taken a break and therefore the competition is typically lighter. I am going to try not to play very many contests above $5 this week. You can enter 1,500 contests that are sub-$10, so for me, that is the route I’ll be going is probably entering several hundred 1,2,5 contests. Historically this move has been one of my bests of the year.
Avoid entering cash games early as much as possible on this slate. The reasoning for it is that the weakest competition will likely not look at anything DFS related until Thursday morning and then join contests.
Update: With the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game cancelled, the outlook on cash games is beginning to look bleak. The decision will largely be based on what you think of the running back position. With how poorly I have rated Duke Johnson Jr, I’ll still be playing, but the margin of error on this slate is razer thin. If you can build a lineup you really like, it can work out, but typically a two-game slate is not optimal for cash game due to the amount of overlap between you and your opponents lineup.
Update #2 Ignore Update #1 and look at the Sunday Morning Update