Comparing 2019 and 2020 ADP: Do the Changes Make Sense?

A deeper look at ADP changes from 2019 to 2020 and evaluating whether the changes are rational in light of new situations and internally consistent

ADP (Average Draft Position) is a very powerful form of knowledge to inform us in our fantasy football decisions. It represents a distilling of the hive mind’s observations about a players outlook when weighed against the value of other players. When we take that calculation and put it next to the ADP right before the beginning of last season, we get an apples to apples comparison that can itself be evaluated. When ADP has changed, or even stayed the same, we can ask, “Does this make sense given what has changed (or not changed) since the beginning of the 2019 season? Has the hive mind over or underreacted to new information? Are the reactions consistent among players on the same team or in similar situations?”

Houston’s Backfield

David Johnson

2019 Final Preseason ADP: Mid 1st (RB5)
Current ADP: 4th round (RB21)

Duke Johnson Jr

2019 Final Preseason ADP: 6th round (RB28)
Current ADP: 11th-12th round (RB51)

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