Predicting 2020's Breakout Offenses

How to spot the potential for an offensive explosion

The goal of this series is to try to identify the offenses that have the best chance of breaking out in 2020 and putting up better than expected fantasy numbers across the board.

In general, there are two ways in which a player can greatly outperform his fantasy ADP:

1. A bigger piece of the pie. The player takes on a larger than expected role in his team’s offense. He sees a higher share of carries, targets, or touchdowns than expected.

2. The entire pie is bigger. The player does not take on a much bigger role than expected but the offense he is playing in makes a big leap forward, making the entire pie bigger. When this happens, most of the key pieces of the offense outperform ADP.

The focus of this series is all about the second category — finding the offenses that are ready to explode.

  • The next 2017 Rams…
  • The next 2018 Chiefs…
  • The next 2019 Ravens…

In each case, the team’s offense made a huge leap forward and had multiple guys crush expectations for fantasy. If you invested heavily in these offenses before their breakout season, you had a great shot to win your league.

What characteristics did recent breakout offenses have in common?

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