Beneath the Numbers: 143 Takes from Doing Projections

Insight into the situations impacting my projections

My first projections cut took nearly 60 hours and I have likely invested another 15-20 hours per week at a minimum keeping this set where I think they represent the most likely outcomes of the players. Distilling data to one set of numbers does not do justice to some of these players who have terrific talent, opportunity, etc. I am penning this article to provide some perspective to guys I like or hate and some thoughts circling my brain that might have gotten lost in a dataset that reflects my best guess at all of the possible outcomes a player can have.

Players listed alphabetically by their last name and by position.


Josh Allen, BUF - The Bills' skill players are not good enough to mask all of Allen's shortcomings as a passer. Allen has delivered for fantasy players because of his legs, but his early ADP represents ceiling projections to me. He is someone I am not drafting this season.

Tom Brady, TB - I suspect he doesn't play up to the lofty expectations and current ADP, but he has not had these kinds of weapons on offense for a long-time. I expect team passing yards and touchdowns to regress in 2020, but fewer mistakes from Brady should translate to more team wins.

Teddy Bridgewater, CAR - Bridgewater is getting drafted at his quarterback floor despite having the best running back in the NFL and young capable wide receivers. The Panthers also have a soft schedule to start the year. He is yet another reason why waiting at quarterback is correct this year.

Joe Burrow, CIN - The Bengals are awful on defense and should be playing from behind in most contests. If Burrow can stay upright behind a bad offensive line, I think he could top 600 pass attempts.

Jared Goff, LAR - Goff has quietly increased his passing attempts every year in the league. He wasn't very efficient in 2019, but by logging 626 passing attempts he was relevant for fantasy. Todd Gurley's departure sets up for a similar year as a volume compiler.

Dwayne Haskins, WAS - I still can't shake the image of him running around taking selfies with fans, while the backup quarterback had to go in and complete the game. Although he seems destined to win the starting job, my expectations remain very low.

Lamar Jackson, BAL - Jackson is arguably the most electric player in football, but I expect to see him to run a bit less in 2020. I am avoiding at his current ADP, but I truly get the hype.

Daniel Jones, NYG - Jones recorded five 300+ yard games in just 12 starts. He has skill position players around him and the defense is awful. If his offensive line can keep him upright, his pass attempts should remain high all season long. He is one of the quarterbacks I am targeting this season.

Drew Lock, DEN - He looked good to close out the year and has a quality supporting cast. Here is yet another quarterback who is being drafted at his floor.

Patrick Mahomes II, KC - When doing projections, I always center the numbers across historical baselines. That downplays how great Patrick Mahomes II is right now. He is capable of 50+ passing touchdowns in a season. I generally wait at quarterback but don't hesitate to grab him in the middle of the third round. He is that much of a difference-maker.

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