The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: Derek Carr has leaned on his tight end in the absence of a No. 1 wide receiver in each of the last two seasons, first with Jared Cook in 2018, and last year with Waller. While the Raiders' clutch of young pass-catchers remains unproven, there will be more competition for targets this year as the team heads to Las Vegas. First-round pick Henry Ruggs III is a candidate to be force-fed and Bryan Edwards, a big-bodied X receiver in the Alshon Jeffery mold, was a steal in Round 3. The Raiders also added another tight end to challenge for snaps in the form of future Hall of Famer, Jason Witten, to go along with last year's fourth-rounder, Foster Moreau. If you miss out on one of the top-4 tight ends, you're better off trying to find this year's Waller in the late rounds than paying a premium for last year's numbers.
Andrew Davenport: A lot of factors had to combine for Waller to put up as many points as he did in 2019. He had 117 targets and 90 receptions, but it could be argued that the Raiders possessed one of the weaker wide receiver units in the league all while fighting injuries to the group at the same time. Now the Raiders have addressed that need and have brought in three exciting young pass-catchers through the draft. The selection of Lynn Bowden Jr alone is cause for concern as he is likely to eat up some short targets. The situation has gone in the wrong direction for Waller. There is room to argue that his three touchdowns is a low enough number that he'll score more in 2020, but if his volume is cut down there isn't much of a way for Waller to pay off his lofty price tag. It's not as though he will be a poor fantasy asset, but taking him where he is being drafted right now doesn't leave much room for Waller to live up to his ADP.
Justin Howe: Waller's magical 2019 won't be repeated. The Raiders realized just how dependent short-armed Derek Carr grew on safety valve Waller last year, and they addressed things with three impact packs in the draft. Even if Carr starts 16 games, there's almost no chance Waller draws another 117 targets, and he might not land close. His relative lack of downfield and red-zone usage caps his ceiling, which doesn't compare to that of some of his peers.
Jordan McNamara: Darren Waller had a terrific breakout late in his career for the Raiders last season. Waller was targeted on 22% of his team's targets, on par with Zach Ertz and just below Kelce (24%). How did the Raiders feel about it? They drafted wide receivers in the first round (Henry Ruggs III) and the third round (Brian Edwards), a pass-catching running back in the third round (Lynn Bowden Jr), and signed Jason Witten. All that creates the risk of a sharp reduction in volume. If there is a positive, Waller only scored three touchdowns despite 90 receptions, so he has scoring regression opportunities if his volume drops, but there are cheaper options with less risk at the position.
Chad Parsons: Waller came out of the ether for a monster breakout season. The late bloomer was originally a boom-bust wide receiver prospect with Baltimore who has morphed into a move tight end. Waller had an ideal setting for a huge 2019 with a lack of wide receiver production. Fast forward to 2020 and the Raiders added Jason Witten at tight end and drafted wide receivers in the first (Henry Ruggs III III) and third (Bryan Edwards) rounds of the NFL Draft. Josh Jacobs should catch more passes as well in Year 2. Competition for targets will be much higher for Waller in 2020, who saw 46 targets more than any of his teammates a year ago.
Jeff Pasquino: Waller was the lone bright spot for the Raiders in the passing game, building on his potential to lead the Raiders in receptions (90) and yards (1,146) by a large margin. Waller was considered a sleeper last year and he more than met his potential as he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with Oakland / Las Vegas. Derek Carr targeted Waller 117 times last year, a large number mostly due to the dearth of wide receiver talent after the toxic Antonio Brown situation led to his release prior to Week 1. Waller may see a dip in production this year as the Raiders have added talent at wide receiver starting with first-rounder Henry Ruggs III.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Want to see the rest?
Enter your email below to become a FREE Insider
and view the full version of this page.
We will never spam you. Ever. Unsubscribe at any time.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN
Money Back Guarantee
you have nothing to lose
More articles from FBG StaffSee all
More articles on: BustsSee all
26 Overvalued Wide Receivers - Staff
19 Overvalued Running Backs - Staff
13 Overvalued Quarterbacks - Staff
More articles on: ForecastSee all
Learning from History: Darren Waller - Harstad
Ultimate Strength of Schedule, Wide Receivers - Gray
Ultimate Strength of Schedule, Defensive Linemen - Gray