The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
They gave us 30 names. That's a lot.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are the five players who received the most votes:
- DeAndre Hopkins - 6 votes
- Odell Beckham Jr - 5 votes
- Cooper Kupp - 4 votes
- Keenan Allen - 3 votes
- Will Fuller V - 3 votes
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona
Sigmund Bloom: The history of wide receivers production in the year after they change teams isn't pretty, and Hopkins didn't have the benefit of an offseason with his new teammates. He could still be very productive by NFL standards, but his previous output was based on an outsized target share with Deshaun Watson that is unlikely to be reproduced in Arizona. He's not worth an early pick with such a deep group at wide receiver in fantasy drafts this year.
Jeff Haseley: I have reservations about DeAndre Hopkins on a new team, with a new quarterback, on a new offense. Yes, he has performed well with much lesser quarterbacks, but I have a strange feeling that he could struggle with so many factors against him that weren't an issue before. I'd rather have Michael Thomas, Davante Adams ahead of Hopkins. Or, I skip wide receiver in the first round altogether because there are countless options at the position a round or two later.
Ryan Hester: This isn’t entirely about Hopkins. He’ll have a big year and be the most targeted player on a fast-paced offense. But he’s joining a new team in a pandemic-altered preseason. And the opportunity cost of picking Hopkins is missing out on a top-10 running back. Positional scarcity suggests the value drop-off is steeper at running back than receiver this year, which makes Hopkins a pick with little margin for error.
Justin Howe: Fade Hopkins at your own risk; he's still a dominant pass-catcher and moves laterally into another exciting offense. Still, while he's a rock-solid fantasy WR1, his upside may not actually reach the public's opinion of it. The Arizona offense was intriguing last year, but it wasn't exactly high-volume (22nd in plays). Not to mention, Kliff Kingsbury's spread attack keeps three (sometimes four) wideouts field-relevant at once. We've likely already seen Hopkins' peak as a 100-catch dominator, so he'll be relying on major efficiency to threaten the top fantasy tier. And this horizontal offense doesn't help his chances of chasing 1,500 yards and 10+ touchdowns.
Chad Parsons: Hopkins has dominated targets and been attached to an already-elite quarterback in Houston. Still priced at a sky-high level for 2020, Hopkins has far more risk than previous years. Kyler Murray may be an elite quarterback, but it is a variable after his promising 2019. The competition for targets is higher than in Houston with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk more sturdy options than the ancillary pieces with the Texans. There are thin margins in the elite receiver tier and Hopkins is worth fading at his cost in 2020 drafts.
Matt Waldman: Hopkins' addition in Arizona is awesome news for the Cardinals passing game, but I'm not convinced it's awesome news for those planning on drafting Hopkins this summer. Kyler Murray earned 3,722 passing yards last year and likely spread the ball around by necessity--or did he? A closer examination of Kliff Kingsbury's offensive scheme reveals "the spread" is as much of a strategy as it is a name. This is more of a horizontal passing game than it is a vertical scheme and when you examine the vertical options in that passing game, the players who appear to be the best match for that role are Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. I expect Hopkins to generate 110-120 targets, close to 100 receptions, and over 1,000 yards but at a yards-per-catch average that's on par with his 2019 season--his lowest season average to date--based on the scheme. The projected targets will also be Hopkins' lowest total in six seasons because Houston made him a target hog that he won't be in Arizona. Hopkins is an elite talent, but he's not in an offense that will lead to elite individual production.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Odell Beckham Jr, Cleveland
Andrew Davenport: The Beckham that played in Cleveland last year wasn't the same one fantasy owners saw in New York. It sounds as if his injury was a concern, so that's something to take into consideration, but after looking like one of the best receivers in the league with the Giants he was ordinary in 2019. In his five seasons with New York, he played 59 games and his 16-game average during those games was 105 receptions, 1,472 yards, and 12 touchdowns. But then last year with Baker Mayfield, Freddie Kitchens, and the injury, he fell off to 74/1,035/4. That is a marked contrast and there is nothing to indicate that this problem will get better in 2020. The arrival of Kevin Stefanski has rumors of a strong running game circulating, and his track record in Minnesota does nothing to dispel those narratives. On top of that, the Browns brought in Austin Hooper to strengthen the pass-catching options, and while they didn't play like it last year, Cleveland has plenty of talented players who they can use on offense. There is likely to be a more efficient offense in place in Cleveland because of the coaching change, but it's probably not going to be a high volume passing attack. After a PPR WR25 finish last season there is no indication that Beckham is set up for an increase in his role this year. His current ADP means he is being overdrafted off of his New York numbers and he should be left for someone else to try and recapture that magic.
Ryan Hester: Coming off a disappointing year in which he was out produced by his lower-drafted teammate, one might think that Beckham’s ADP would have dropped to the point that he could be a value. But Beckham has a new system to learn and additional targets in the offense to compete with. Add to that the fact that Beckham hasn’t appeared very excited about playing football the last year so or (including this offseason when he made comments around the way the NFL is handling COVID-19), and he’s drama that I like to avoid having on my fantasy team.
Justin Howe: Beckham carries tons of name value, and many are targeting him in Rounds 2 and 3 on that alone. But we're actually 4 years removed from his last season of 1,100+ yards or 7+ touchdowns. In last year's Browns debut, Beckham played a full season He topped 100 yards only once, and it was discouraging to see him score just twice in the red zone. It's hard to see room for expansion as the Browns look poised to lean even more on their ground game in 2020. It would take a mountainous leap in several efficiency measures for Beckham to overcome all of these knocks. Even at his ceiling, a WR1 finish just doesn't look projectable.
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