The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
Phil Alexander: The Rams played in 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back, three receivers) almost 80% of the time during the first 10 weeks of last season. From Weeks 11 to 17, that number dropped to 58% in favor of more two-tight-end sets. Not by coincidence, Kupp's target volume dropped from 10.1 per game in Weeks 1-10 down to 6.6 per game in Weeks 11-17. LA's offseason moves -- jettisoning Brandin Cooks and drafting tight end Brycen Hopkins in Round 4 -- suggest more 12 personnel formations are here to stay. Kupp becomes more of a touchdown-dependent fantasy option now that he'll be sharing more with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. If you're eager to invest in a Rams wide receiver, wait a couple of rounds and enjoy similar production from Robert Woods.
Sigmund Bloom: The Rams offense used a lot more two-tight end sets in the second half of the year than the first, a trend we can’t ignore when gauging Kupp’s value in fantasy drafts because that took Kupp off of the field more often. His yardage dropped from 793 to 369 in the second half of the year and his targets went from 87 to 47. Kupp’s 2020 numbers should be better than just doubling his poor second half output, but they won’t be high enough to justify his ADP.
Jordan McNamara: The Rams changed offensive schemes near the end of the season with a move away from the 3WR sets that were a hallmark of Sean McVay’s offense. This move helped create the breakout of Tyler Higbee but led to a reduction in Cooper Kupp’s snap share as Kupp’s three lowest snap shares came in the final four weeks of the season. Kupp is a favorite of Jared Goff, and without Brandin Cooks, there is an opportunity to play on the perimeter, but Kupp played over two-thirds of his snaps in the slot last year. If the offense is going to play less three-wide receiver sets, Kupp needs to be more effective as a perimeter wide receiver or his fantasy prospects will suffer. At his cost, Kupp’s uncertainty is a major question mark.
Matt Waldman: Kupp is one of my favorite receivers in the league, but he's in an offense that will do more work from sets with two tight ends. Although Kupp has excellent skills against press coverage and the initial burst and change of direction suddenness to compete with starting cornerbacks, he's not going to consistently beat the top primary cover corners in the league as an outside receiver. Because he's dominant in the slot but he'll be asked to do more work as an outside receiver, expect lower reception and yardage totals from Kupp in the Rams' offense. Kupp remains the best red-zone target that Jared Goff has so expect Kupp to lead the team in touchdowns but no longer top the club in every receiving category.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
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