A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Jared Goff, LA Rams
James Brimacombe: Goff is coming off a disappointing season by some, but when you look at the numbers he had his most completions at 394 and attempts at 626 and finished as the QB12. In the last three seasons, Goff has been QB12, QB6, and QB12, and now with the Rams parting ways with Todd Gurley, we could be in line for another 600+ passing attempt season from Goff once again. The Rams have a nice bunch of pass receivers in Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp at the receiver position and emerging Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at the tight end position.
Bob Henry: Goff is one of the least sexy picks at the position after regressing in 2019 along with Todd Gurley and an injured Brandin Cooks. However, there’s a solid case for positive regression for his TD rate. The play volume should continue to be favorable making Goff a good to continue producing 300+ fantasy points and finish with his fourth straight season as QB12 or higher. The Rams offense continues to be well-stocked with talent at running back, wide receiver and tight end. He’s one of the best wait-for-QB options because he’s cheap and expectations are low thanks to his mid-season slump last year with a slate of tough defenses (SF, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Baltimore). After that, he threw 11 TDs over his last five games with three 300-yard games. Get him around QB19, but anticipate value from the drop as a borderline QB1 for the season with top-five weekly upside and volume.
Ryan Hester: After his 2018 breakout, Goff’s 2019 season was considered a bust by many. But he passed for only 49 fewer yards last year. It was the 10 fewer touchdowns that spelled disaster for his fantasy production. In fact, Goff threw a touchdown pass on only 3.5% of his attempts last season, the lowest rate of any top-24 seasonal finisher at quarterback. Touchdowns aren’t the most sticky statistic, which could mean that Goff’s touchdown production should at least find the middle of his 2018 and 2019 bookends. That makes him a fringe QB1 who should be especially attractive to the Rent-a-Quarterback types who don’t place a draft priority on the position.
Jordan McNamara: Jared Goff finished as QB12 in 2019. He threw the third-most passing yards in the NFL last season while tying for the league-high in attempts at 626. The reason he is a discount? A 3.5% touchdown rate pushed down his stats. The good news is that stat is fickle year over year, so he should rebound in 2020. Add in a good offensive mind in Sean McVay with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers, and Darrell Henderson and you have a situation that can bounce back quickly in 2020. If league mates are passing on Goff for flashier options like Drew Lock, Goff is a great value.
Chad Parsons: One of the easier bets to make for fantasy quarterbacks is when a productive profile is going for a discount. Enter Jared Goff in 2020. Brandin Cooks is gone, but the rest of the passing game is intact, plus they added dynamic running back Cam Akers and Van Jefferson with second-round selections. Goff has three straight seasons in the top-15 of the position, including a mid-QB1 level finish in his profile. Goff is one of the easier later-quarterback selections for 2020 drafts.
Jeff Pasquino: Goff and the Rams had a down year in 2019, but even with an offense that scored far less than in 2018 or 2017, Goff finished as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback for the third season in a row. Yes, Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley are gone, but Cooks was minimized last year in favor of shorter route runners Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods along with two big tight ends (Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett). Los Angeles loves to throw the ball, as Goff attempted 626 passes last year and only the Bengals lined up more in three-wide receiver sets. Second rounder Van Jefferson will contend with Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role and to hopefully stretch defenses with an improved offensive line. Goff looks to me as a very safe QB2 with QB1 upside if the Rams get their passing game back to 2017 and 2018 production levels.
Jason Wood: Jared Goff isn't someone to target as a starter, but he should be on the short-list for No. 2 options and is a viable every-week starter in deeper leagues. Fantasy managers appear to be overreacting to his disappointing 2019. Goff's completion rate (62.9%), yards (4,639), yards per attempt (7.4), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (16) all worsened from 2018, as the Rams' inability to run effectively made it easier for defenses to key on the passing game. Yet, in spite of his declines, Goff still finished as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback. How many quarterbacks have job security and a top-12 floor?
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
James Brimacombe: The Eagles passing offense was completely banged up during the second half of last season as Wentz really only had his two tight ends to rely on getting the ball to. Even with all the injuries to the wide receiver position, Wentz still found a way to lead the Eagles to the NFC East title and finish as the QB8 last season with over 600 passing attempts for 4,039 yards and 27 passing touchdowns. Heading into the 2020 season, the Eagles have been trying to build up the receiving talent for Wentz, adding Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, Quez Watkins in the draft and trading for Marquise Goodwin to help give him some much needed downfield speed. Add in Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson coming back from injury along with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with a potential rebound season. Don't forget about the emergence of Miles Sanders who caught 50 passes for 509 yards and 3 touchdowns and the best duo of tight ends in the league in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Wentz has all the weapons heading into the year and has a great shot at finishing as a top-five quarterback this season.
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