The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Phil Alexander: Allen is a fine best-ball target but you can do better if you're looking for a "set it and forget it" starter in redraft leagues. With running quarterbacks, you want the rushing stats to be the gravy, not the meat. Eventually, Allen will fail to score eight or nine touchdowns on the ground in a season (the addition of bruising running back Zack Moss in the draft doesn't help) and his mediocre passing stats won't be enough to make up the difference.
James Brimacombe: The best part of Allen's game is his rushing touchdown ability. Over 28 career games, Allen has 17 rushing touchdowns. When you are drafting Allen, you are hoping for that 8-10 rushing touchdown season to help him pay off his current market value. Allen had a remarkable season last year passing for 20 touchdowns and rushing for nine more, and even with those numbers, he finished as the QB10. If you want Allen on your team this season you will have to pay a premium for those potential rushing touchdowns.
Andy Hicks: I see where Josh Allen is being drafted and I get nervous. If we look at his rushing stats its easy not to get giddy, but then if we focus on his efforts as a passer and we should get very concerned. Eight or nine rushing touchdowns consistently is a tough ask. The addition of the consistent Stefon Diggs should help, but we have already seen Diggs frustrated with the way the Vikings were winning, playing a consistent 4000 passing yards a season guy. Dropping to 3000 on an even heavier running team and I am worried. Allen could easily show improvement as a passer. He was raw coming into the league and showed improvement from season one to season two. The bar gets higher though and until we see Allen not relying on his rushing stats, he should be treated with caution.
Jeff Pasquino: Big things are expected from Josh Allen in his third year in Buffalo. The Bills' quarterback now has a top-notch target in Stefon Diggs to be his WR1, moving John Brown and Cole Beasley down to reasonable second and third options at receiver. Solid running back and tight end options round out the offense for Allen, whose big arm should be able to hit either Diggs or Brown deep. Allen adds extra value (and fantasy floor) with his rushing ability, eclipsing 500 yards and eight touchdowns in both of his first two seasons. All that said, weather can always impact a game in Buffalo and his fantasy playoff schedule screams it (vs. SF, at Denver, at New England). Drafting Allen as a Top 10 quarterback leaves no room for upside, so be cautious here.
Matt Waldman: Allen has exhibited steady and incremental improvement as a passer. His accuracy is trending upward as he has gained better weapons, especially the experienced veteran John Brown. He'll also gain Stefon Diggs, which should allow Allen to spread the ball around the field with greater confidence. However, it's overconfidence in his arm strength and mobility that has been the underlying problem with Allen's game. He still makes awful decisions as a game manager that has diminished in volume but not necessarily in boneheadedness. Having more veteran receivers sounds great on paper but if reading the field and multiple progressions in a timely manner remains an issue, we'll see lower numbers than expected and isolated tantrums from frustrated teammates more often than we'd like. Allen will be on the cusp of QB1 production as a fantasy option but not a rock-solid QB1 as we're seeing right now.
Jason Wood: Josh Allen improved in every facet last year, proving he has a long-term future in the league after being an athletic runner and erratic passer as a rookie. He finished as the No. 10 quarterback, throwing for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns while running for 510 yards and 9 touchdowns. With the offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs, the enthusiasm is palpable. But drafting Allen at his current price assumes too much optimism. He still completed just 58.8% of his passes last year, which in today's NFL makes him one of the least accurate throwers. And his 17 rushing touchdowns in two seasons is an impossible rate to maintain. Allen is a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life contributor, but he's ideally slotted as a high-end No. 2 than your every week starter.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
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