12 Overvalued Quarterbacks

Footballguys staff members discuss quarterbacks who are overvalued

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

They gave us 12 names. That's a lot at quarterback.

If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top guys, here are some of the players who received the most votes:

NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.

If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.

If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.

Player Receiving 6 Votes

Josh Allen, Buffalo

Phil Alexander: Allen is thought of as a set-it-and-forget-it starter in redraft leagues, but you can do better. With running quarterbacks, rushing stats should be the gravy, not the main course. Eventually, Allen will fail to score eight or nine touchdowns on the ground in a season (the addition of bruising running back Zack Moss in the draft doesn't help), and his mediocre passing stats won't be enough to make up the difference.

Andy Hicks: I see where Josh Allen is being drafted and I get nervous. If we look at his rushing stats its easy not to get giddy, but then if we focus on his efforts as a passer and we should get very concerned. Eight or nine rushing touchdowns consistently is a tough ask. The addition of the consistent Stefon Diggs should help, but we have already seen Diggs frustrated with the way the Vikings were winning, playing a consistent 4000 passing yards a season guy. Dropping to 3000 on an even heavier running team and I am worried. Allen could easily show improvement as a passer. He was raw coming into the league and showed improvement from season one to season two. The bar gets higher though and until we see Allen not relying on his rushing stats, he should be treated with caution.

Devin Knotts: If you are taking Josh Allen at his current ADP you're going to be relying on him to likely be a starter for most weeks on your team. While the overall output last season was fine as he finished 10th overall, the week-to-week consistency is the problem for Allen. Propped up by nine rushing touchdowns last year, Allen finished as a top-12 quarterback just 6 times in 2019. While Stefon Diggs should help, Allen's problems are accuracy as he has a career 56.3% completion percentage and with Devin Singletary expected to play a more active role in this offense, it could hurt Allen's upside in 2020.

Jeff Pasquino: Big things are expected from Josh Allen in his third year in Buffalo. The Bills' QB now has a top-notch target in Stefon Diggs to be his WR1, moving John Brown and Cole Beasley down to reasonable second and third options at receiver. Solid running back and tight end options round out the offense for Allen, whose big arm should be able to hit either Diggs or Brown deep. Allen adds extra value (and fantasy floor) with his rushing ability, eclipsing 500 yards and eight touchdowns in both of his first two seasons. All that said, weather can always impact a game in Buffalo and his fantasy playoff schedule screams it (vs. SF, at Denver, at New England). Drafting Allen as a Top 10 quarterback leaves no room for upside, so be cautious here.

Matt Waldman: Allen gets another strong weapon in Stefon Diggs, who should overtake John Brown as the leading Bills receiver in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Also, expect Allen to increase his completion percentage, but the improvement won't be a huge jump forward. If you removed Allen's rushing production from his 2019 output, his fantasy value falls from 10th to 20th. With the addition of Zack Moss in the red zone, the idea of Allen sustaining an output of even half of his 8-9 rushing touchdowns per season is optimistic. Without that, you have a big-armed passer who isn't completing even 60 percent of his passes and makes too many dumb decisions that another good receiver won't do enough to cure.

Jason Wood: Josh Allen improved in every facet last year, proving he has a long-term future in the league after being an athletic runner and erratic passer as a rookie. He finished as the No. 10 quarterback, throwing for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns while running for 510 yards and 9 touchdowns. With the offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs, the enthusiasm is palpable. But drafting Allen at his current price assumes too much optimism. He still completed just 58.8% of his passes last year, which in today's NFL makes him one of the least accurate throwers. And his 17 rushing touchdowns in two seasons is an impossible rate to maintain. Allen is a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life contributor, but he's ideally slotted as a high-end No. 2 than your every week starter.

Players Receiving 4 Votes

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay

James Brimacombe: There is excitement in Tampa Bay with the Brady signing and rightfully so. The Buccaneers have all the weapons on offense as the team has put things in place for Brady to succeed. Entering his 21st season in the league, Brady continues to amaze with his skills and abilities to lead an offense. Over the last two seasons, he has finished as the QB12 and QB13 and has only cracked the top 10 twice in the past seven years. With Godwin and Evans at wide receiver, it is easy to predict Brady to be a top 10 quarterback this year but the asking price is just too high to take that chance.

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