10 ADP Risers: Are We Sure We Have it Right?

10 players whose ADP has spiked since training camps opened and whether or not you should draft them at their rising costs.

One of the trickiest things to navigate as you approach your draft is how much -- or how little -- to react to training camp soundbites, and the resulting swings in Average Draft Position (ADP). Sometimes when a player's ADP peaks this time of year, it's warranted. But oftentimes, preseason surges in ADP are the results of groupthink and confirmation bias within the fantasy football community, which create landmines fantasy gamers must carefully avoid. With a lack of preseason games to gauge whether or not the hype matches the way players are being used, this year is particularly challenging.

Below you'll find a list of players whose ADP has increased significantly in PPR leagues since training camps opened per our ADP data. Are we sure we want to pay top dollar to get these guys on our teams?

Antonio Gibson

Where we started: Pick 139 (12.01). Gibson was a rookie with intriguing athletic measurables, but he played mostly receiver at Memphis. The prevailing wisdom implied he was too raw to make an impact on a lousy Washington team with a crowded running back depth chart.

Where are we now: Pick 83 (7.10). Derrius Guice was arrested for domestic violence and promptly kicked off the team, opening the door for Gibson to mix in with the starters in camp and look good doing it.

Are we sure we have it right? Yes.

Gibson's ADP has taken off, but it appears to have settled in the late seventh round. If you're targeting a running back at that point in the draft, upside should be your only concern. Gibson has more of it than the one-dimensional satellite backs (Tarik Cohen), short-straw platoon runners (Phillip Lindsay), and early-down grinders (Jordan Howard) typically available in the same range.

The funny thing about Gibson's rise up draft boards is that it happened for the wrong reason. Guice's release will free up a handful of carries per game, which boosts Gibson's floor a tad, but Adrian Peterson and Bryce Love are still the favorites to inherit most of Guice's vacated base-down carries. Kelvin Harmon's season-ending ACL injury is the more likely catalyst for a Gibson breakout season.

Washington arguably had zero pass-catchers of consequence behind Terry McLaurin before the Harmon injury. But the loss of Harmon, who commanded nearly six targets per game after becoming an every-down player last year, creates an opening for Gibson to emerge as the Football Teams' second-leading receiver. New offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, has a track record of using positionless tweeners creatively (see Curtis Samuel's increased involvement as a rusher late last year). We should trust Turner to let his playmakers do what they do best. For Gibson, that means catching the ball in space and making fantasy-friendly chunk gains after the catch.

Allen Lazard

Where we started: Pick 197 (14.11). People were still shocked Lazard wasn't replaced during free agency and the NFL Draft as Aaron Rodgers' WR2.

Where are we now: Pick 143 (12.04). Devin Funchess, who may have been a longshot to make the roster anyway, opted out of the season, cementing Lazard as Rodgers' WR2.

Are we sure we have it right? No.

Lazard will outperform his WR54 ADP by just being an every-down player for the Packers. The problem is, the stats he compiles won't help you win matchups.

After becoming a starter in Week 7 last season, Lazard finished with 45 receiving yards or less in eight out of 10 games. He also failed to earn Rodgers' trust in the red zone, failing to score a touchdown on five targets from inside the 20-yard line. If you're after empty 6-3-42-0 receiving lines from your WR4/5, by all means, draft Lazard. Just know he doesn't possess the ability to help you win weeks. Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Curtis Samuel, and Parris Campbell are all available later than Lazard and stand a better chance of ever warranting a spot in your starting lineup.

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