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Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 8 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the nine NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- Los Angeles Rams (vs CIN) - 30.25 points
- Seattle Seahawks (at ATL) - 30.00 points
- New Orleans Saints (vs ARI) - 29.25 points
- Houston Texans (vs OAK) - 29.00 points
- Detroit Lions (vs NYG) - 28.00 points
- New England Patriots (vs CLE) - 27.75 points
- Green Bay Packers (at KC) - 25.75 points
- Tennessee Titans (vs TB) - 24.25 points
- San Francisco 49ers (vs CAR) - 24.00 points
Injury/Inactive Watch
- WR Keenan Allen (Q) - I am currently projecting for him. If Allen scratches, bump WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, and TE Hunter Henry.
- RB Alvin Kamara (Q) - I am projecting him to scratch. If he is active, he will move Latavius Murray out of lineups.
- QB Matt Ryan) - I now believe Matt Ryan will play this week. If he scratches, QB Matt Schaub ($10,000) is a strong play due to his price.
Situations that stand out to me this week
- Seattle Passing Offense vs Atlanta Passing Defense - The Seahawks have averaged 260 yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since week 4 while the Falcons are yielding 315 yards and 3.2 passing touchdowns during the same time frame.
- Saints Passing Offense vs Cardinals Passing Defense - The Saints are averaging 265 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. The Cardinal have yielded 270 yards and 2.0 touchdowns through the air during that same timeframe.
- Texans Passing Offense vs Raiders Passing Defense - The Texans have generated 294 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. The Raiders can't stop the pass and have yielded 308 yards and 3.3 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe.
- Patriots Rush Offense vs Browns Rush Defense - The Patriots are averaging 98 yards and 2.0 touchdowns rushing per game over the last 4 weeks. Over those same 4 weeks, the Browns have yielded 206 yards and 1.3 touchdowns on the ground. At home and projected as huge favorites, this sets up for a Sony Michel ground and pound game script.
- Packers Rush Offense vs Chiefs Rush Defense - The Packers are averaging 107 yards and 1.4 touchdowns on the ground since Week 4 while the Chiefs attempt to funnel everything to the run. The Chiefs have yielded 157 yards and 1.2 touchdowns rushing over the last 4 weeks.
- Rams Rush Offense vs Bengals Rush Defense - The Rams have not been all that successful running the ball this year, but are averaging 1.5 rush touchdowns the last 4 weeks. Their cure happens this week as they draw the Bengals at home. The Bengals have yielded 204 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. With Jared Goff playing inconsistent football lately, this screams Todd Gurley rush attack all day. I likely have undervalued him in my projections and he has 2 touchdown upside in this contest.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $19,500, FP = 36.9, Ratio = 1.89)
- RB Leonard Fournette / TD Jacksonville Jaguars (Cost = $18,900, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 1.72)
- RB Sony Michel / TD Patriots (Cost = $16,200, FP = 26.9, Ratio = 1.66)
- QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $22,500, FP = 36.9, Ratio = 1.64)
- RB Leonard Fournette / TD Jaguars (Cost = $19,900, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.63)
- QB Daniel Jones / TE Evan Engram (Cost = $20,000, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.62)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Phillip Dorsett (Cost = $20,300, FP = 32.7, Ratio = 1.61)
- RB Latavius Murray / TD Saints (Cost = $18,000, FP = 28.7, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $28,600, FP = 44.6, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Jameis Winston / TE Cameron Brate (Cost = $16,000, FP = 25.0, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Jacoby Brissett / WR T.Y. Hilton (Cost = $23,100, FP = 35.7, Ratio = 1.55)
- QB Philip Rivers / TE Hunter Henry (Cost = $18,800, FP = 29.1, Ratio = 1.55)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $24,100, FP = 37.0, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $20,900, FP = 32.0, Ratio = 1.53)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR Keke Coutee (Cost = $21,900, FP = 33.2, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Joe Flacco / WR Courtland Sutton (Cost = $20,500, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Matthew Stafford / WR Marvin Jones (Cost = $23,300, FP = 35.5, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay (Cost = $23,500, FP = 35.7, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Teddy Bridgewater / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $26,600, FP = 40.4, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Daniel Jones / WR Golden Tate (Cost = $21,500, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Ryan Tannehill / WR A.J. Brown (Cost = $18,100, FP = 27.2, Ratio = 1.50)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR Kenny Stills (Cost = $23,700, FP = 35.3, Ratio = 1.49)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $25,100, FP = 37.2, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $23,600, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.47)
- QB Russell Wilson / WR Tyler Lockett (Cost = $26,800, FP = 39.4, Ratio = 1.47)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers
- RBs: David Montgomery, Phillip Lindsay, Josh Jacobs, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen
- WRs: DeMaryius Thomas, D.J. Moore, Phillip Dorsett, Mike Williams, Daesean Hamilton
- TEs: Greg Olsen, Cameron Brate, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant
- Def: Denver, Carolina, Philadelphia, LA Chargers, Chicago
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (160.9)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU - $13,800
- RB Latavius Murray, NO - $11,300
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $14,700
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC - $8,000
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $15,600
- WR Courtland Sutton, DEN - $10,500
- Flex: RB Sony Mchel, NE - $9,500
- Flex: WR T.Y. Hilton, IND - $11,400
- TD Jacksonville Jaguars, JAC - $5,200
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ BUF Stack Projected Points = (157.0)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF - $11,900
- RB Latavius Murray, NO - $11,300
- RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $14,700
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC - $8,000
- WR T.Y. Hilton, IND $11,400
- WR John Brown, BUF - $10,600
- Flex: RB Sony Mchel, NE - $9,500
- Flex: RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $17,300
- TD Jacksonville Jaguars, JAC - $5,200