Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanTASYDRAFT's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 2 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the twelve NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• New England Patriots (at MIA) - 33.75 points
• Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK) - 30.00 points
• Baltimore Ravens (vs ARI) - 29.75 points
• Philadelphia Eagles (at ATL) - 27.25 points
• Los Angeles Rams (vs NO) - 27.00 points
• Dallas Cowboys (at WAS) - 26.25 points
• Houston Texans (vs JAC) - 26.00 points
• Pittsburgh Steelers (vs SEA) - 25.25 points
• Atlanta Falcons (vs PHI) - 25.25 points
• Los Angeles Chargers (at DET) - 25.00 points
• New Orleans Saints (at LAR) - 25.00 points
• Cincinnati Bengals (vs SF) - 24.00 points

Injury/Inactive Watch

• RB Joe Mixon, CIN - My projections reflect him scratching with his sprained ankle. Should he play, he would render Giovani Bernard useless for DFS.
  
  
• WR Mike Williams, LAC - My projections reflect him scratching which elevates RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen and WR Travis Benjamin. Should he play, the expectations of all the mentioned players would lower slightly.
  
  
• RB Damien Harris, NE - My projections reflect him being a healthy inactive on Sunday. If he ends up on the active list, he will devalue Rex Burkhead's potential closing role in the suspected blowout.
  
  
• WR Cody Latimer, NYG - The Giants are already down to scrubs for the receiver positions. If Latimer also scratches, RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram will get a slight bump as the only viable pass-catching options. TD Buffalo could also be a sneaky play that records a lot of sacks against what should be an inept passing game.
  
  

Situations that stand out to me this week

• QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (10,400) - The Steelers struggled in week 1, but Roethlisberger's salary is just $400 higher than Eli Manning. This feels like a great bounce-back spot one week after Andy Dalton threw for 418 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks in week 1.
  
  
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC ($12,900) and WR Keelan Allen ($14,200) - Both of these players have expanded roles with Melvin Gordon holding out and TE Hunter Henry on IR. Should WR Mike Williams scratch as expected, both should be in for a massive target share. WR Travis Benjamin is also in play in GPPs if Mike Williams is inactive.
  
  
• RB Chris Carson, SEA ($11,200) - The Steelers allowed 188 rushing + receiving yards to New England running backs in week 1. Chris Carson logged 15 rushes and 6 receptions to go with 2 touchdowns in the opener. Generally, I advocate fading running backs on the road in games that they are underdogs, but Chris Carson's situation and price make him a compelling play in a game that has shootout potential.
  
  
• TE Darren Waller, OAK $6,400) - This is the free-square of the week. Waller is completely mispriced in a game that looks as if it should feature a lot of yards through the air. Waller played all 58 of the Raiders snaps in the opener.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Derek Carr / TE Darren Waller (Cost = $17,000, FP = 32.0, Ratio = 1.88)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / TE Vance McDonald (Cost = $17,500, FP = 30.5, Ratio = 1.74)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Travis Benjamin (Cost = $17,400, FP = 30.1, Ratio = 1.73)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / WR James Washington (Cost = $17,000, FP = 29.2, Ratio = 1.72)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / WR Donte Moncrief (Cost = $17,800, FP = 30.0, Ratio = 1.69)
• RB Rex Burkhead / TD New England Patriots (Cost = $14,000, FP = 23.4, Ratio = 1.67)
• RB James Conner / TD Pittsburgh Steelers (Cost = $16,200, FP = 26.9, Ratio = 1.66)
• QB Josh Allen / WR Zay Jones (Cost = $17,500, FP = 28.9, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $19,300, FP = 31.9, Ratio = 1.65)
• RB Mark Ingram / TD Baltimore Ravens (Cost = $18,000, FP = 29.4, Ratio = 1.63)
• QB Ben Roethlisberger / WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Cost = $23,800, FP = 38.5, Ratio = 1.62)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $19,500, FP = 31.5, Ratio = 1.62)
• QB Matthew Stafford / TE T.J. Hockenson (Cost = $18,400, FP = 29.8, Ratio = 1.62)
• QB Derek Carr / WR Tyrell Williams (Cost = $20,000, FP = 32.2, Ratio = 1.61)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $21,300, FP = 34.2, Ratio = 1.61)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,700, FP = 43.9, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / TE George Kittle (Cost = $23,300, FP = 36.2, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Brandin Cooks (Cost = $22,600, FP = 34.8, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $25,300, FP = 38.7, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Cost = $21,000, FP = 31.8, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Case Keenum / WR Terry McLaurin (Cost = $18,500, FP = 28.0, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $23,600, FP = 35.6, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $22,800, FP = 34.4, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $21,600, FP = 32.7, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $28,300, FP = 42.6, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $27,100, FP = 40.0, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Mecole Hardman (Cost = $24,400, FP = 36.1, Ratio = 1.48)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $26,900, FP = 38.9, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $28,200, FP = 40.8, Ratio = 1.45)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Mitchell Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins
• RBs: Phillip Lindsay, Giovani Bernard, David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Mike Davis
• WRs: Travis Benjamin, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Zay Jones, Larry Fitzgerald
• TEs: Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Mike Gesicki, C.J. Uzomah, Austin Hooper
• Def: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, NY Giants, Denver

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (168.8)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $14,300
• RB Chris Carson, SEA - $11,200
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC - $12,900
• TE Darren Waller, OAK - $6,400
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $14,200
• WR Tyrell Williams, OAK - $9,400
• Flex RB Josh Jacobs, OAK - $9,200
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $15,400
• TD New England Patriots - $7,000

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ PIT Stack Projected Points = (167.7)

• QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - $10,400
• RB Chris Carson, SEA - $11,200
• RB Austin Ekeler, LAC - $12,900
• TE Darren Waller, OAK - $6,400
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC - $14,200
• WR JuJu Smith-Shuster, PIT - $13,400
• Flex RB Josh Jacobs, OAK - $9,200
• Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $15,400
• TD Baltimore Ravens - $6,500