Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 19 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the four NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs HOU) - 29.75 points
- Baltimore Ravens (vs TEN) - 28.00 points
- Green Bay Packers (vs SEA) - 25.75 points
- San Francisco 49ers (vs MIN) - 25.75 points
Situations that stand out to me this week
- Use players from the home favorites - This round of playoffs heavily slants toward the teams that were granted a bye last week. They had two weeks to prepare and play in their home stadiums. The point spreads are lopsided for this exact reason. The home favorites have generally practiced a lot of plays and can start fast in games. This neutralizes the underdogs to a catchup strategy that generally involves pass plays.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews ( Price = $26,100, FP = 39.1, Ratio = 1.50)
- RB Aaron Jones / TD Green Bay Packers ( Price = $19,600, FP = 29.2, Ratio = 1.49)
- RB Damien Williams / TD Kansas City Chiefs ( Price = $17,600, FP = 26.0, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Patrick Mahomes / TE Travis Kelce ( Price = $27,600, FP = 40.8, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Sammy Watkins ( Price = $22,700, FP = 33.1, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown ( Price = $23,900, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Nick Boyle ( Price = $21,100, FP = 30.6, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Tyreek Hill ( Price = $29,200, FP = 42.2, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo / TE George Kittle ( Price = $24,600, FP = 35.3, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Lamar Jackson / TE Hayden Hurst ( Price = $21,400, FP = 30.7, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Lamar Jackson / WR Seth Roberts ( Price = $21,800, FP = 30.9, Ratio = 1.42)
- QB Ryan Tannehill / TE Jonnu Smith ( Price = $17,200, FP = 24.5, Ratio = 1.42)
- QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams ( Price = $27,400, FP = 37.9, Ratio = 1.38)
- QB Lamar Jackson / WR Willie Snead IV ( Price = $22,200, FP = 30.6, Ratio = 1.38)
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo / WR Emmanuel Sanders ( Price = $22,400, FP = 30.7, Ratio = 1.37)
- RB Mark Ingram / TD Baltimore Ravens ( Price = $19,400, FP = 26.5, Ratio = 1.37)
- RB Raheem Mostert / TD San Francisco 49ers ( Price = $17,700, FP = 24.0, Ratio = 1.36)
- QB Ryan Tannehill / WR A.J. Brown ( Price = $21,900, FP = 29.8, Ratio = 1.36)
- QB Russell Wilson / WR Tyler Lockett ( Price = $24,600, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.32)
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo / WR Deebo Samuel ( Price = $22,500, FP = 29.3, Ratio = 1.31)
- QB Patrick Mahomes / WR Mecole Hardman ( Price = $22,300, FP = 28.9, Ratio = 1.30)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins ( Price = $27,500, FP = 35.6, Ratio = 1.29)
- QB Kirk Cousins / WR Stefon Diggs ( Price = $21,800, FP = 28.2, Ratio = 1.29)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Kirk Cousins
- RBs: Tevin Coleman, LeSean McCoy
- WRs: Kenny Stills, Miles Boykin
- TEs: Anthony Firkser, Irv Smith, Nick Boyle
- Def: Minnesota
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash - Projected Points = (140.6)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $14,800
- RB Aaron Jones, GB - $14,000
- RB Damien Williams, KC - $11,300
- TE George Kittle, SF - $12,800
- WR Davante Adams, GB - $14,700
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC - $8,400
- Flex: TE Travis Kelce, KC - $13,300
- Flex: TE Irv Smith, MIN - $5,000
- TD Green Bay Packers - $5,600
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ BAL stack - Projected Points = (138.9)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $14,800
- RB Aaron Jones, GB - $14,000
- RB Damien Williams, KC - $11,300
- TE George Kittle, SF - $12,800
- WR Stefon Diggs, MIN - $10,500
- WR Sammy Watkins, KC - $8,400
- Flex: TE Mark Andrews, BAL - $11,300
- Flex: RB Raheem Mostert, SF - $11,300
- TD Green Bay Packers - $5,600