Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 18 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the two NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- New Orleans Saints (vs MIN) - 28.50 points
- New England Patriots (vs TEN) - 24.75 points
Situations that stand out to me this week
- Use Responsible Bankroll Management - This is among the worst weeks to play DFS with limited choices and low expected team totals making up the majority of the situations. The majority of rosters will be playing Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Devin Singletary at a minimum. This means your earnings (if you win) are going to be decided on lower-EV plays.
- Tennessee Titans vs the New England Patriots - Weather could be a factor in this contest as rain is expected throughout the game. Knowing the Patriots will likely look to lockdown A.J. Brown, I am not super excited about rostering any players in this drizzle-fest. Tom Brady has been erratic since week 11 and the Patriots might be better served playing smash-mouth running and solid defense.
- The Only Dome game (Minnesota vs New Orleans) - Vegas expects a blowout, but that could also bode well for the Vikings pass-catchers should get behind early. RB Dalvin Cook feels extra risky at his elevated price and long layoff. The coaches say he is ready, but the game script could render him too expensive for his production.
- Zach Ertz, PHI - He is a game decision playing the late game on Sunday. Without the ability to alter rosters upon news closer to kickoff, I am fading both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz as well as the rest of the Eagles pass-catchers. If Ertz does scratch, Dallas Goedert and Greg Ward make for solid plays.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $31,100, FP = 46.9, Ratio = 1.51)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $26,100, FP = 38.8, Ratio = 1.49)
- QB Deshaun Watson / TE Jordan Akins (Cost = $17,600, FP = 25.9, Ratio = 1.47)
- QB Drew Brees / TE Jared Cook (Cost = $22,700, FP = 33.3, Ratio = 1.47)
- RB Alvin Kamara / TD New Orleans Saints (Cost = $19,900, FP = 29.1, Ratio = 1.46)
- RB Carlos Hyde / TD Houston Texans (Cost = $14,600, FP = 21.3, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR Kenny Stills (Cost = $21,800, FP = 31.9, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Deshaun Watson / TE Darren Fells (Cost = $18,000, FP = 25.9, Ratio = 1.44)
- QB Carson Wentz / TE Dallas Goedert (Cost = $22,700, FP = 31.7, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Carson Wentz / WR Greg Ward (Cost = $22,100, FP = 30.9, Ratio = 1.40)
- QB Josh Allen / TE Dawson Knox (Cost = $19,100, FP = 26.6, Ratio = 1.39)
- QB Russell Wilson / TE Jacob Hollister (Cost = $20,700, FP = 28.8, Ratio = 1.39)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $24,200, FP = 33.3, Ratio = 1.38)
- QB Josh Allen / WR Cole Beasley (Cost = $23,900, FP = 32.8, Ratio = 1.37)
- QB Josh Allen / WR John Brown (Cost = $24,900, FP = 33.6, Ratio = 1.35)
- RB Devin Singletary / TD Buffalo Bills (Cost = $17,800, FP = 23.5, Ratio = 1.32)
- QB Russell Wilson / WR Tyler Lockett (Cost = $26,300, FP = 34.7, Ratio = 1.32)
- QB Russell Wilson / WR DK Metcalf (Cost = $24,400, FP = 32.1, Ratio = 1.32)
- QB Drew Brees / WR Tre’Quan Smith (Cost = $21,200, FP = 27.7, Ratio = 1.31)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Carter (Cost = $19,500, FP = 25.2, Ratio = 1.29)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: None
- RBs: Latavius Murray
- WRs: Adam Thielen, Trequan Smith
- TEs: Irv Smith, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz
- Def: Minnesota
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ HOU Stack - Projected Points = (141.0)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU - $12,000
- RB RB Alvin Kamara, NO - $14,000
- RB Devin Singletary, BUF - $11,300
- TE Jared Cook, NO - $9,300
- WR Michael Thomas, NO - $17,700
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU - $14,100
- Flex: RB WR Cole Beasley, BUF - $10,500
- Flex: TE Dawson Knox, BUF - $5,700
- TD Houston Texans - $5,000