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Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 15 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.
Expected Team Points
Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eleven NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:
- San Francisco 49ers (vs ATL) - 29.50 points
- Seattle Seahawks (at CAR) - 27.75 points
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN) - 27.50 points
- Tennessee Titans (vs HOU) - 27.25 points
- Oakland Raiders (vs JAC) - 26.50 points
- Cleveland Browns (at ARI) - 26.00 points
- New England Patriots (at CIN) - 25.75 points
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at DET) - 25.50 points
- Los Angeles Rams (at DAL) - 25.00 points
- New York Giants (vs MIA) - 24.75 points
- Houston Texans (at TEN) - 24.25 points
and a few near misses...
- Dallas Cowboys (vs LAR) - 23.50 points
- Minnesota Vikings (at LAC) - 23.50 points
Situations that stand out to me this week
- Teams playing for pride only - This is the time of the year for bad teams to rest stars while evaluating younger players that could have a bigger role in 2020 and beyond. Conversely, the teams battling for those playoff spots tend to lean on their stars as if it was already a playoff game.
- The New York Giants passing offense vs the Miami Dolphins pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Giants have averaged 233 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns. During that same span, the Dolphins have yielded 274 yards and 2.5 touchdowns through the air. Darius Slayton ($9,200) is priced to excel in this matchup.
- The Cleveland Browns passing offense vs the Arizona Cardinals pass defense - Over the last four weeks, the Browns have averaged 239 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns. During that same span, the Cardinals have yielded a whopping 403 yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air. I like Jarvis Landry ($12,600) and the run-back option of Christian Kirk ($10,300) as the Cardinals likely play from behind in this contest.
- The Kansas City Chiefs passing offense vs the Denver Broncos pass defense - The Chiefs are getting their stride back and have averaged 268 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns through the air in their last 4 weeks. Denver's once feared defense has yielded 256 yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air during that same span. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and even Denver's Courtland Sutton could all benefit from this matchup.
- The Seattle Seahawks rush offense vs the Carolina Panthers rush defense - Over the last four weeks, the Seahawks are averaging 180 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns on the ground. The Panthers are yielding 146 yards and 2.0 touchdowns via the run over the same time period. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Chris Carson $14,100) doesn't score a touchdown this week.
- Derrick Henry vs the Houston rush defense - Over the last four weeks, the Titans are averaging 207 rushing yards and 2.0 touchdowns on the ground. Derrick Henry has been the best running back in football over the last 17 games dating back to last season. The Texans are yielding 194 yards and 1.0 touchdowns via the run over the same time period. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Derrick Henry doesn't get another 100-yard game this week.
Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)
- RB James White / TD New England Patriots (Cost = $17,200, FP = 28.0, Ratio = 1.63)
- QB Kyler Murray / WR Christian Kirk (Cost = $21,400, FP = 34.6, Ratio = 1.62)
- QB Eli Manning / WR Darius Slayton (Cost = $19,400, FP = 31.2, Ratio = 1.61)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Michael Gallup (Cost = $22,700, FP = 36.0, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $19,600, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.59)
- QB Jared Goff / TE Tyler Higbee (Cost = $19,100, FP = 30.2, Ratio = 1.58)
- QB Gardner Minshew / WR Dede Westbrook (Cost = $20,000, FP = 31.2, Ratio = 1.56)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $25,600, FP = 39.4, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $22,600, FP = 34.8, Ratio = 1.54)
- QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $27,700, FP = 42.2, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Kyle Allen / WR D.J. Moore (Cost = $22,900, FP = 34.9, Ratio = 1.52)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $27,400, FP = 41.0, Ratio = 1.5)
- RB Saquon Barkley / TD New York Giants (Cost = $19,900, FP = 29.8, Ratio = 1.5)
- QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $24,300, FP = 36.0, Ratio = 1.48)
- QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $22,900, FP = 33.4, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $27,600, FP = 40.3, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $23,100, FP = 33.8, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $25,000, FP = 36.5, Ratio = 1.46)
- QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $24,200, FP = 35.0, Ratio = 1.45)
- QB Baker Mayfield / WR Jarvis Landry (Cost = $24,600, FP = 35.2, Ratio = 1.43)
- QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp (Cost = $23,800, FP = 33.7, Ratio = 1.42)
Players for GPP differentiation
- QBs: Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen
- RBs: Boston Scott, Devin Singletary, Jamaal Williams, Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson
- WRs: Darrius Slayton, Diontae Johnson, Michael Gallup, James Washington, Greg Hardy
- TEs: Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas, Logan Thomas, Jason Witten, Austin Hooper, Jonnu Smith
- Def: Chargers, Chiefs, Bengals, Cardinals, Redskins
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (154.6)
- QB Patrick Mahomes, KC - $13,300
- RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $19,000
- RB Chris Carson, SEA - $14,100
- TE Tyler Higbee, LAR - $7,700
- WR Courtland Sutton, DEN - $11,000
- WR D.J. Moore, CAR - $12,300
- Flex: RB Patrick Laird, MIA - $8,800
- Flex: RB Boston Scott, PHI - $6,000
- TD New England Patriots - $7,100